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The decline of the Tuscan state has been ascribed to the disastrous double Tutrici regency of Dowager Grand Duchesses Christine (of Lorraine) and Maria Magdalene (of Austria) following the death of Cosimo II. They brought in a lot more priests, turned Galileo over to the Inquisition and became chummy with the Papacy, Austria and Spain.

So, what if Cosimo doesn't die "young"? He was only 30yo, his dad made 60 and his mom 72yo, so if we give him at least another two decades (until 1641) how might this change things? Cosimo wasn't overly interested in the minutiae of ruling, true, but he DID expand the navy (I think I read somewhere the army too) and was a patron of the arts and sciences (IIRC he was friends with Robert Dudley, duke of Northumberland, but I could be getting he and Ferdinando I mixed up).
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