WI: Cosimo II Lives Longer

The decline of the Tuscan state has been ascribed to the disastrous double Tutrici regency of Dowager Grand Duchesses Christine (of Lorraine) and Maria Magdalene (of Austria) following the death of Cosimo II. They brought in a lot more priests, turned Galileo over to the Inquisition and became chummy with the Papacy, Austria and Spain.

So, what if Cosimo doesn't die "young"? He was only 30yo, his dad made 60 and his mom 72yo, so if we give him at least another two decades (until 1641) how might this change things? Cosimo wasn't overly interested in the minutiae of ruling, true, but he DID expand the navy (I think I read somewhere the army too) and was a patron of the arts and sciences (IIRC he was friends with Robert Dudley, duke of Northumberland, but I could be getting he and Ferdinando I mixed up).
 
The decline of the Tuscan state has been ascribed to the disastrous double Tutrici regency of Dowager Grand Duchesses Christine (of Lorraine) and Maria Magdalene (of Austria) following the death of Cosimo II. They brought in a lot more priests, turned Galileo over to the Inquisition and became chummy with the Papacy, Austria and Spain.

So, what if Cosimo doesn't die "young"? He was only 30yo, his dad made 60 and his mom 72yo, so if we give him at least another two decades (until 1641) how might this change things? Cosimo wasn't overly interested in the minutiae of ruling, true, but he DID expand the navy (I think I read somewhere the army too) and was a patron of the arts and sciences (IIRC he was friends with Robert Dudley, duke of Northumberland, but I could be getting he and Ferdinando I mixed up).
Well with a surviving Cosimo likely Urbino would be annexed to Tuscany and not to the Papal States as Cosimo's young niece and daughter-in-law was the rightful heiress of her granfather's land but Christine and Maddalena were too much religious for going against the Pope
 
Well with a surviving Cosimo likely Urbino would be annexed to Tuscany and not to the Papal States as Cosimo's young niece and daughter-in-law was the rightful heiress of her granfather's land but Christine and Maddalena were too much religious for going against the Pope


I'd imagine that would put Tuscany in opposition to Urban VII? Which could open an Italian Theater for the 30YW could it not? Especially if Urbino's succession results in a war like Mantua's did in the same decade.
 
I'd imagine that would put Tuscany in opposition to Urban VII? Which could open an Italian Theater for the 30YW could it not? Especially if Urbino's succession results in a war like Mantua's did in the same decade.
OTL Urban VII was able to persuade the old Francesco Maria II della Rovere to left the Duchy of Urbino to him and Christine and Magdalene accepted that at the time of the cession and after Francesco's death but the agreement happened only after Cosimo's death...
I do not think who the Pope will be able to persuade the Duke of Urbino with Cosimo still alive and ready to defend the rights of his niece and future daughter-in-law so the succession in Urbino will be a totally peaceful ascension of the 9 years old Vittoria della Rovere (alone or together with the 20 years old future Ferdinand II of Tuscany) likely with Cosimo taking effective power as regent being both the uncle and the future father-in-law of the new Duchess
 
OTL Urban VII was able to persuade the old Francesco Maria II della Rovere to left the Duchy of Urbino to him and Christine and Magdalene accepted that at the time of the cession and after Francesco's death but the agreement happened only after Cosimo's death...
I do not think who the Pope will be able to persuade the Duke of Urbino with Cosimo still alive and ready to defend the rights of his niece and future daughter-in-law so the succession in Urbino will be a totally peaceful ascension of the 9 years old Vittoria della Rovere (alone or together with the 20 years old future Ferdinand II of Tuscany) likely with Cosimo taking effective power as regent being both the uncle and the future father-in-law of the new Duchess

Would the marriage between Vittoria and Ferdinando II even go through? She was only born a year AFTER Cosimo's OTL death and the marriage was arranged by her mother and the two grand duchesses. So might Cosimo's survival not affect anything from Vittoria being born male to her dad surviving (he died of a parasitic infection OTL) - although considering Federico Ubaldo and Claudia didn't really get along, I could see Vittoria being their only child - to Cosimo arranging a marriage between Vittoria and one of his younger sons (Leopoldo's closest in age, but he and Vittoria didn't get along at all OTL), so that he can marry Ferdinando to a higher ranking bride (don't say he will get said bride - whoever she may be).

Also, IIRC three of his sons (Giovan' Carlo, Mattias and Leopoldo) were in the church (Mattias was groomed for it, but found he preferred being a soldier), so if Cosimo survived with a less pietistic pall hanging over the Pìtti, might they have different fates? I mean until 1663 there are THREE Medici cardinals (Giovan' Carlo, Leopoldo and theeir uncle, Carlo) and when Cosimo III approached the pope to create his younger son a cardinal, the pope refused to have two Medici cardinals so close in age.
 
Would the marriage between Vittoria and Ferdinando II even go through? She was only born a year AFTER Cosimo's OTL death and the marriage was arranged by her mother and the two grand duchesses. So might Cosimo's survival not affect anything from Vittoria being born male to her dad surviving (he died of a parasitic infection OTL) - although considering Federico Ubaldo and Claudia didn't really get along, I could see Vittoria being their only child - to Cosimo arranging a marriage between Vittoria and one of his younger sons (Leopoldo's closest in age, but he and Vittoria didn't get along at all OTL), so that he can marry Ferdinando to a higher ranking bride (don't say he will get said bride - whoever she may be).

Also, IIRC three of his sons (Giovan' Carlo, Mattias and Leopoldo) were in the church (Mattias was groomed for it, but found he preferred being a soldier), so if Cosimo survived with a less pietistic pall hanging over the Pìtti, might they have different fates? I mean until 1663 there are THREE Medici cardinals (Giovan' Carlo, Leopoldo and theeir uncle, Carlo) and when Cosimo III approached the pope to create his younger son a cardinal, the pope refused to have two Medici cardinals so close in age.
Less cardinals in the family for sure and yes maybe Vittoria will be married to one of the younger son instead of the heir but she was a very good match so while is not unlikely seeing her married to Giovan Carlo or Matthias she will still taken in consideration for Ferdinando and considering France, Austria and Spain had not available brides to offer as their princesses were all older (excluding the two youngest daughters of the Emperor) and destined elsewhere she will still likely seen as one of the best available matches for him
 
Less cardinals in the family for sure and yes maybe Vittoria will be married to one of the younger son instead of the heir but she was a very good match so while is not unlikely seeing her married to Giovan Carlo or Matthias she will still taken in consideration for Ferdinando and considering France, Austria and Spain had not available brides to offer as their princesses were all older (excluding the two youngest daughters of the Emperor) and destined elsewhere she will still likely seen as one of the best available matches for him

Wasn't there an Este princess slated for marriage to the Tuscan heir? Caterina or Margherita, I think.

But I admit, Vittoria would be a strong contender for Ferdinando II, unless someone (like Urban VII has an issue with the Tuscan land-grab of Urbino - so, while the Medici might have Habsburg moral support, I'm not sure this will translate into ACTUAL support. A War of the Urbinese Succession might not be as high a priority to the movers and shakers (France, the Habsburgs, etc) as what Mantua's was
 
Wasn't there an Este princess slated for marriage to the Tuscan heir? Caterina or Margherita, I think.

But I admit, Vittoria would be a strong contender for Ferdinando II, unless someone (like Urban VII has an issue with the Tuscan land-grab of Urbino - so, while the Medici might have Habsburg moral support, I'm not sure this will translate into ACTUAL support. A War of the Urbinese Succession might not be as high a priority to the movers and shakers (France, the Habsburgs, etc) as what Mantua's was

Urban VII OTL wanted Urbin and knew he was able to get it without much trouble... here with Cosimo alive is unlikely he will try to deprive Vittoria (who before being his future daughter-in-law is Cosimo’s niece) of her inheritance. Marrying an heiress to your eldest son for acquiring her lands was a pretty standard thing to do or Vittoria can marry Matthias instead of Ferdinando (Giovan Carlo will still be destined to Church as OTL, while weddings for Matthias and Leopold are likely)
 
Urban VII OTL wanted Urbin and knew he was able to get it without much trouble... here with Cosimo alive is unlikely he will try to deprive Vittoria (who before being his future daughter-in-law is Cosimo’s niece) of her inheritance. Marrying an heiress to your eldest son for acquiring her lands was a pretty standard thing to do or Vittoria can marry Matthias instead of Ferdinando (Giovan Carlo will still be destined to Church as OTL, while weddings for Matthias and Leopold are likely)
Unless Urban tries something insane like marry Vittoria to a Barberini boy (IDK if there are any around, but let's not forget that Urbino's last three dynasties (della Rovere, Medici, Borgia) all climbed into power courtesy of a relative on St. Peter's Chair. Not to mention Urban was a sort of apologist for Alexander VI/fan boy).
 
Unless Urban tries something insane like marry Vittoria to a Barberini boy (IDK if there are any around, but let's not forget that Urbino's last three dynasties (della Rovere, Medici, Borgia) all climbed into power courtesy of a relative on St. Peter's Chair. Not to mention Urban was a sort of apologist for Alexander VI/fan boy).
For doing something like that Urban will need to have the custody of Vittoria because without that he will not have any chance to choose her husband. After her father’s death (or at the latest after the death of her grandfather) Vittoria instead will be under the custody of her maternal uncle so Urban will need an illegitimate occupation of the Duchy with a likely war against Tuscany for having a chance to take Urbino and I am not sure he will go for it
 
For doing something like that Urban will need to have the custody of Vittoria because without that he will not have any chance to choose her husband. After her father’s death (or at the latest after the death of her grandfather) Vittoria instead will be under the custody of her maternal uncle so Urban will need an illegitimate occupation of the Duchy with a likely war against Tuscany for having a chance to take Urbino and I am not sure he will go for it

Could he not persuade Vittoria's grandfather to surrender the girl's custody to the church (since the church can "in theory" protect her rights to be independent duchess)? Or insist that since Urbino is a lapsed papal fief Vittoria is a ward of the (Papal) state?
 
Could he not persuade Vittoria's grandfather to surrender the girl's custody to the church (since the church can "in theory" protect her rights to be independent duchess)? Or insist that since Urbino is a lapsed papal fief Vittoria is a ward of the (Papal) state?
No, he can not without a big fight with Tuscany who can claim the girl as they are her closest relative and in any case Urban VII was interested in annexing Urbino not to give it to some relative so... And nobody in this period will ever believe to the Pope as protector of the indipendence of any of the papal fiefs
Add to that the fact who Della Rovere arranged the wedding between his son and the Grand Duke's sister because he was interested in an alliance with Tuscany and can not take away the girl from her mother so Vittoria and Urbino are destined to be in the hands of Cosimo
 
No, he can not without a big fight with Tuscany who can claim the girl as they are her closest relative and in any case Urban VII was interested in annexing Urbino not to give it to some relative so... And nobody in this period will ever believe to the Pope as protector of the indipendence of any of the papal fiefs
Add to that the fact who Della Rovere arranged the wedding between his son and the Grand Duke's sister because he was interested in an alliance with Tuscany and can not take away the girl from her mother so Vittoria and Urbino are destined to be in the hands of Cosimo

Fair enough.

Back to Tuscany, then. I'm guessing if Cosimo lives this buys Galileo some more time or at least some sort of protector from the Inquisition? But is it enough to slow the decline of Tuscany to provincial backwater (as it became in the reign of Ferdinando II or Cosimo III)? The Tutrici laws not only redoubled the no. of clergy but also forbade Tuscan students from attending university OUTSIDE Tuscany and IIRC Ferdinando II was the last grand duke who had anything to do with the Medici bank.
 
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