WI:Cortez fails

Well, epidemics would be still on the run, so you'd have clearly weakened native states to begin with.

Now, considering that Cortez was on the loose, breaking with the Spanish power of Cuba, you may have some time before someone tries again an expedition in Mexico.

Would it be enough time for Aztec to recover and adapt, before the mandatory new expedition? (Castillan knew about Mexico and its fame, and I don't think they would have let an opportunity pass)

And giving the possibilities it would be an official expedition, not a rogue one (meaning more material, more prepared, more reinforced), it's going to be a new challenge for Aztecs.
 
Agreed. However, a second expedition is going to take time and this time any native allies would be less likely to help because in ATL the one time they trusted a stranger he got himself killed. And my theory is that the Aztecs would have thought about integrating European weapons into their military. And it's not like the Spanish can just walk in once again.
 
Agreed. However, a second expedition is going to take time and this time any native allies would be less likely to help because in ATL the one time they trusted a stranger he got himself killed.
Giving that Aztecs weren't exactly the forgiving type, that they would use the strategical defeat of the former native allies of Castillans to punish them...
I think a stronger Castillan expedition may have, if smaller (due to disease) as well motivated allies.

And my theory is that the Aztecs would have thought about integrating European weapons into their military.
I'm not sure you can just jury-rig in a non-mettalurgic warfare culture, not only iron/steel weapons, but gunpowder weapons, just like that (to say nothing of horses, of course)
Even if the possibility (interesting one), they capture some as instructors, the material in hand would be extremly limited : we're talking of the remain material of an handful of Europeans there.

It could be a factor of course, but most probably wouldn't be enough to win against a non-rogue expedition.

And it's not like the Spanish can just walk in once again.
Well, yes, they can (as in not certain, but not impossible as well)
A weakened population, even if victorious, seeing coming fresh new troops (probably more important, more prepared) isn't going to have that of a huge morale, and some cities could just turn the same way they did IOTL.
 
I've never been clear on how long recovery and adaptation would take. Theoretically, the Aztecs could probably eliminate all but the biggest force.

The natives do not need to develop metallurgy let alone guns to defend themselves more effectively. They can obtain metal from european traders and from fallen conquistadors and turn that into crude weaponry or armor. Even without any new technology however, European technological superiority would never be able to make up for fighting so far from home with such a disparity in numbers thoughonly if the natives know how to fight them and, that their enemies are not invincible. Numerical superiority is worthless if faced against an enemy who can exploit weaknesses effectively and convince the larger force that they cannot win. Horses can be made less effective by certain weapons and basic fortifications/obstacles or that firearms, despite their terrifying noise, are too slow loading, heavy and small in number (limited by number of troops available for an expedition) to be used to great effect.

Disease cannot be mitigated. I do not know whether resistance to smallpox and the other lesser (but still deadly) diseases ever developed among indigenous peoples in the Americas nor do I know how long it would take. Obviously some people survived. The best thing the natives can do is learn more about preventing the spread of disease by separating the sick and healthy.
 
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The Triple Alliance would unleash unholy retribution on the Tlaxcalteca and Totonacans for allying themselves with Cortés, depriving future expeditions to Mexico the ability to call on native auxiliaries.
 
The Triple Alliance would unleash unholy retribution on the Tlaxcalteca and Totonacans for allying themselves with Cortés, depriving future expeditions to Mexico the ability to call on native auxiliaries.
They might well try, but there is a reason the Aztecs never destroyed Tlaxcala, and wasn't just to have flower wars; Tlaxcalans were a tough nut to crack. Also there were other people not all that happy to be under the Mexica thumb. The shock of this alien invasion from the east, the aliens' near victory, and general uncertainty among other local elites regarding which way to jump, might lead others to see Aztec preoccupation punishing Cortes's allies as a reason to rebel against Aztec domination themselves. Seems to me it is equally possible that the next round of Spaniards might enter a Mexico riven with inter-city warfare and find as many possible allies as the first time fighting a weakened Triple Alliance.
 
Wasn't the Spanish victory largely due to Aztec hesitation and uncertainty? a second, officially sanctioned expedition would probably still not be sufficiently large enough to defeat an Aztec army that had some idea of what they were facing.
 
Wasn't the Spanish victory largely due to Aztec hesitation and uncertainty? a second, officially sanctioned expedition would probably still not be sufficiently large enough to defeat an Aztec army that had some idea of what they were facing.

I think so. With the correct leadership and knowledge of the enemy,They could easily destroy them. Technology is all but irrelevant unless the Spanish can bring a huge regular army in, and I don't see them doing that any time soon. Should the Mexica learn more about the European threat and consolidate their power, then t he devastation wrought by smallpox and plague is the only thing I can imagine destroying them.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Originally Posted by zoomar
Seems to me it is equally possible that the next round of Spaniards might enter a Mexico riven with inter-city warfare and find as many possible allies as the first time fighting a weakened Triple Alliance.

would this nake it more difficult for Spaniard ? Maya city states seems retain more of their culture than Valley of Mexico. conquering dozens of different city-states is different undertaking than conquering single empire.
 
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