WI Cortez and His Men Slaughtered on La Noche Triste?

Agreed. But you seem to be speaking of what might have happened had the Spanish never arrived. In the scenario under discussion, the Spanish did arrive and wrecked havoc (materially and psychologically) through the Aztec realm before being destroyed. How might this experience have impacted the future development of the Aztec Empire?

Oh sorry. I meant to give my response as a what if once the Aztecs crushed the Spaniards. It would serve as a lesson that tributaries like the Totonacs were not meant to be trusted.
 

NothingNow

Banned
My copy of 1491 has the population of Central Mexico as just a little over twenty five million in 1518, and 16.8 million by 1832 after two waves of smallpox and an attack of measles. That's over a third population loss. By 1545 the population had dropped to six million, after another epidemic of smallpox and an outbreak of cocoliztli; that's a 75% population loss from La Noche Triste.

Now assuming that a substantial amount of that was due primarily to the actions of the Spaniards rather than to disease itself, we're still looking at well over a 50% culling of the total population of the region, not just the population of the Mexica. To compare in England and the Germanies the Black Death only claimed 20-30% of the population. I'm just not convinced that the native societies could survive such a massive die-off.
Surprisingly, the Post-Classic Maya, particularly in the Peten basin, where the combination of Geography and luck allowed them to recover without the Spaniards beating down the door. As it was, most communities did show signs of continuity and would have survived on their own, although the Amazonians and Mound-builders just seemed to disappear fairly early on.

Eh...I suppose that we have to make decisions about population estimates to use when discussing scenarios, but never assume that any source is giving you the gospel truth on pre-Columbian populations in the Americas. In addition to being very difficult to parse from the evidence, any study of pre-Columbian populations is inevitably politicized, as 9 Fanged Hummingbird has pointed out, by people seeking to downplay or promote the effect of European on Native American violence in the population drop.

Yeah, but with 1491, the numbers presented are generally those of the current consensus, and well supported.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Oh sorry. I meant to give my response as a what if once the Aztecs crushed the Spaniards. It would serve as a lesson that tributaries like the Totonacs were not meant to be trusted.

So it's at least plausible that their initial contact with the Spanish would have prompted the Aztecs to exert a more stringent and direct rule over their subject peoples, you think?
 
Yeah, but with 1491, the numbers presented are generally those of the current consensus, and well supported.

If I remember correctly the author also gives a conservative and liberal estimates of the population of Pre-Columbian Americas.

Cortez's death still does not stop the spread of smallpox or the fact that Diego Velazquez and the rest of the Spanish are in Cuba. I can imagine Mesoamerica will be attacked by another expedition soon after Cortez. But that being said it could extend the life of other Pre-Columbian civilizations such as the Inca (if they can survive their civil war).
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I can imagine Mesoamerica will be attacked by another expedition soon after Cortez.

I doubt it, frankly. The destruction of Cortez and his force would have seriously drained the manpower available in the Spanish colonies of the New World, which were still only thirty years old. Why would they want to throw together another expedition which might well send another thousand men to their dooms?

A second attempt at conquest would have far less of a chance than Cortez because the Aztecs will resist the Spaniards fiercely from the moment they arrive, will no longer have a mortal terror of gunpowder weapons or horses, and will no longer be lead by an indecisive fool. It's also quite possible that small cadres of Aztecs will be equipped with guns (where there is gold, there is smuggling).
 
Given how much gold the Aztecs held, it would only be a matter of time before some other adventurer decides to do some filibustering.
 

NothingNow

Banned
If I remember correctly the author also gives a conservative and liberal estimates of the population of Pre-Columbian Americas.
That he does, and he usually stays with the median.

Cortez's death still does not stop the spread of smallpox or the fact that Diego Velazquez and the rest of the Spanish are in Cuba. I can imagine Mesoamerica will be attacked by another expedition soon after Cortez. But that being said it could extend the life of other Pre-Columbian civilizations such as the Inca (if they can survive their civil war).
It'll also shake Spanish confidence enough that trading might be the preferable method, along with the soft sell of christianity. Maybe by the late 16th century the Colonies will be back in an expansionary mode, but I can't see them making much progress outside of Florida, the Yucatan and Venezuela/Guyana.

The Aztecs along with the whole valley of mexico will still be too strong, they have no-way of reaching the Incan empire, and frankly, the Mayans are only civilized society that is both divided enough to be conquerable and frankly won't self destruct by the end of the century.
 
The Aztecs along with the whole valley of mexico will still be too strong, they have no-way of reaching the Incan empire, and frankly, the Mayans are only civilized society that is both divided enough to be conquerable and frankly won't self destruct by the end of the century.


Wait, you mean of conquering or of reaching the Incan Empire? I'm not clear how a surviving Aztec polity keeps the Spanish from reaching the Incas.
 
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