WI: Continued Ottoman Tripolitania (No Italian Libya)

What if Tripolitania/Libya remained Ottoman. This is either because the Italo-Turkish war is avoided or Turkey manages to hold out.

A lot of people talk about what would happen if the Italians held on to Libya. Would Tripolitania be a rich driver for the Ottomans or would it be pealed away no matter what?
 
What if Tripolitania/Libya remained Ottoman. This is either because the Italo-Turkish war is avoided or Turkey manages to hold out.

A lot of people talk about what would happen if the Italians held on to Libya. Would Tripolitania be a rich driver for the Ottomans or would it be pealed away no matter what?

It has oil, so it's possible it could be useful as a province. The population is not large and together with its coastal location and oil it could become prosperous fairly easily.

The Ottomans in 1912 are not in an amazing position. The First Balkan war in the same year would have priority over Tripolitania Vilayet, leaving it exposed to attack.

On the other hand, with earlier/more successful internal reform the basis is there for a strong nation that can fend for itself.

Italy was not equal to other powers such as Britain and France. Conflict with European powers should be avoided by both Italy and the Ottomans. Neither could hold Libya against a determined British or French attack in the conditions of the early 20th century. Italy will lose the area unless they keep to themselves and avoid Mussolini.
 

Lusitania

Donor
But ottoman control would of ended at end WW1. Just like it lost all non Turk territories. So it would of been taken over by either English or French
 
Without the Italian Invasion there's a chance the Balkan Wars could be avoided. If the Balkan Wars are avoided then WW1 could be avoided, at least the 1914 version. Even if the Balkan Wars are just delayed that could still lead to a very different WW1 if it happens at all.
 
Depending on why the Ottomans keep Libya means either the Balkan Wars are butterflied or delayed. World War I is also butterflied but the war as we know it. By 1912 it is hard not to avoid the conflict.
 
Turkey manages to hold out.

From my brief expedition into Ottoman history, I've learned this can only happen if Egypt was still in Ottoman hands. When the British effectively took over Egypt after the Anglo-Egyptian War, the Ottoman Empire was basically split in two. Without reinforcements from the rest of the Ottoman Empire, Ottoman defeat in Tripolitania was effectively guaranteed.

The problem is that somehow keeping Egypt in Ottoman hands requires a much earlier POD, maybe France not invading Egypt in 1798? This would prevent the power vacuum which allowed Mohammad Ali to become the governor of Egypt, which would prevent his incompetent descendants from effectively spending Egypt into oblivion and European subservience. This POD could affect much more than the Italo-Turkish War. For example, we have France to thank for our ability to decipher Egyptian hieroglyphics since it was France's invasion of Egypt that revealed the Rosetta Stone.
 
From my brief expedition into Ottoman history, I've learned this can only happen if Egypt was still in Ottoman hands. When the British effectively took over Egypt after the Anglo-Egyptian War, the Ottoman Empire was basically split in two. Without reinforcements from the rest of the Ottoman Empire, Ottoman defeat in Tripolitania was effectively guaranteed.

The problem is that somehow keeping Egypt in Ottoman hands requires a much earlier POD, maybe France not invading Egypt in 1798? This would prevent the power vacuum which allowed Mohammad Ali to become the governor of Egypt, which would prevent his incompetent descendants from effectively spending Egypt into oblivion and European subservience. This POD could affect much more than the Italo-Turkish War. For example, we have France to thank for our ability to decipher Egyptian hieroglyphics since it was France's invasion of Egypt that revealed the Rosetta Stone.

Egypt is not necessarily needed. Its helpful but not needed. Italy was way over budget and if the war continued longer it would demand peace. A conference would be held. That kinda stuff.
 
Egypt is not necessarily needed. Its helpful but not needed. Italy was way over budget and if the war continued longer it would demand peace. A conference would be held. That kinda stuff.

The problem is the Ottomans would not have a strong position at said conference, given France gave Italy a thumbs up for the campaign. Would Russia and Britain at this late date for the Ottomans? I suppose it depends on the exact situation on the ground, but given even the Ottomans offered defacto transfer of governance while maintaining nominal Sovergeinty prewar I'm not sure it would pan out well
 
The problem is the Ottomans would not have a strong position at said conference, given France gave Italy a thumbs up for the campaign. Would Russia and Britain at this late date for the Ottomans? I suppose it depends on the exact situation on the ground, but given even the Ottomans offered defacto transfer of governance while maintaining nominal Sovergeinty prewar I'm not sure it would pan out well

This.
Nobody saw Libya as vital for the Ottomans; so as long as Italy can keep some troops in the coastal cities, even just Tripoli if need be, they will support the OTL Treaty terms.
 
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