WI: Constantinople falls in 674 or 717

Rex Mundi

Banned
What if the Caliphate successfully conquers Constantinople in the siege of 674 or 717?

I know that conquering Constantinople is very hard and probably implausible but let's just think about the consequences; what could happen to Europe and to the Islamic world?

How can you possibly "just think about the consequences" without thinking about the things that these events will be the consequences of? It's cause and effect, not "let's just think about the effect". That's like asking for answers to a math question without letting us see the problem or do equations.
 
You could fairly argue that the Ummayyad conquest was a fluke brought on by the Visigothic Civil War, but otherwise I agree.

Perhaps.

But:

Given the state of the Visigothic polity in the late 7th and early 8th centuries, however, I would argue that such a "fluke" situation was inevitable. Visigothic power and unity was weakening, and Arab power in the Maghreb was consolidating.
 
The Exarchate would not fall until 697/98. Iirc, it was still able to defeat Arab armies into the 680s, but I can't recall where I read that. In any case, in a Constantinople falls in the 670s, it's very unlikely that Africa will fall at the same time and in the same way.

Why? Because morale would be higher, or the ability to draw on resources would be more effective?

Logistics? The Arabs might be able to swallow Italy (although I have my doubts), but Arab expansion beyond the Danube is going to be very difficult, I reckon. If the climate of the Anatolian plateau was too harsh for the Arabs, I think central and northern Europe certainly will be.

Why conflate Arabs with Muslims?

Other Steppe peoples found Islam attractive. The Avars were still pagan at this point.


Not in the seventh century, when Emperors could be and were active in Italian politics and most Popes were themselves Greek clergy. This is only a few years after Constans II's trip to Rome, after all.

You're right, it's early 8th century. Still, Puglia fell in the 780s OTL to the Lombards. The Byzantines ATL are going to lack the logistic and naval support that Byzantium provided in OTL. So how do they win?

Not in the 670s. At this point, the Arabs were still constructing Roman style pleasure palaces and hunting lodges on the fringes of the desert and adorning them with crosses and chi-rhos.

It was finished in 690, 691. The Great Mosque of Damacus was finished in the early 8th century. Islam looks to be a pretty definitive religion by this point.

It really seems like you're bending over backwards in order to defend "Oh look, the Byzantines could still survive from areas they lost in OTL."
 
Do they? Crete and Cyprus were lost, Sicily was lost, the Muslim states seized the Balearics.... It was a multi-year siege of Constantinople. That suggests the Byzantines didn't have supremacy, at least to me.

(Yes, I'm extrapolating over a couple of centuries).

I mean locally. Whatever their wider strategic losses they still seem to have had local dominance in the Dardanelles, the Hellespont and the sea of Marmara
 
Hmm if I had a TL where Constantinople was conquered via the result of a Earthquake Id name it "The Act of God"

Though without the Byzantines soaking them up the Khazars are likely to get more aggressive in the Caucasus.
 
By 717, I would expect the Bulgars to give the Arabs a run for their money. The taking of Constantinople should have in itself been an exhausting undertaking, and the state of the diminished Islamic armies should be considered.

I would have less faith on the Avars, but their capabilities shouldn’t be too hastily dismissed either; OTL, it took several blows from the Franks to finally bring them to their knees almost a century later.

A possible scenario would be the invasion of southern Italy from the Adriatic coast of the Balkans: perhaps the Slavic tribesmen in the northwestern/western Balkans could play a role similar to that of the Berbers in Spain. A relatively small force (perhaps 15,000 men) could defeat any armies in the lower half of the peninsula, at this point divided between the Byzantine dukes and the Lombards of Spoleto and Benevento. In the north, OTOH, we might see a temporary alliance, between the Lombard monarch and the Imperial remnants in Ravenna. Should the Islamic armies be defeated, and the government in Ravenna is recognized as Constantinople’s successor, a love-hate relationship might develop along the lines of OTL’s Byzantium and Bulgaria.

Should the alliance fail, the Pope might take a trip to the other side of the Alps, and seek refuge amongst the Franks. Continuing further north would require more manpower, which might put a hold on the expansion to the East. Should they manage to do so however, expect a much larger battle between the Franks and their vassals (the Alamanni, the Bavarians, etc.) than Tours ever was, as the Muslims would be dangerously close to the center of the Kingdom.
 
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