WI Constantine Porphyrogennitus is excluded from succession in 913?

The sources are uniformly hostile towards Emperor Alexander III (912-913), who is depicted as lazy, lecherous, and malignant, including the rumor that he planned to castrate the young Constantine VII in order to exclude him from the succession. At least that charge did not come to pass, but Alexander left his successor a hostile regent (Nicholas Mystikos) and the beginning of a long war against Bulgaria.
WI Alexander's wish was carried out and young Constantine never becomes Constantine VII? What happens next? Who gets the throne? Is a civil war plausible? Any thoughts?
 
Is a civil war plausible then in the Empire? His last remaining kinsman his uncle Stephen was a eunuch and was excluded from succesion... What happens if Btzantine Empire sinks into a civil war over the throne?
 
I could see a coup, maybe by the Byzantine admiral Himerios, who supported Leo VI and Constantine (but was exiled c. 910).

But more likely is that Leo Phocas would march on Constantinople and declare himself basileus. He lost a huge battle to the Bulgarians in 917, so I'm not sure how long he would stay on the throne...
 
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