WI Constantine IV Succeeds against Bulgars and Lives Longer

Red Orm

Banned
Righto lads, so this is an idea that's been stewing in my mind for the past few days, and I really think I could make the meme magic happen.

So Constantine IV inherited during a troubled time, with a usurper to defeat in Sicily, and soon after that troubles in the East against the Umayyad Caliph Muawiya. He acquitted himself rather well, especially in defense of Constantinople during a 5-year siege, and soon had peace in the East. To me it looks as though he was much more competent than his father, Constans II, since Constans barely had a year of his reign without some rebellion to put down, whereas Constantine IV only had one rebellion to handle, in the very first year of his reign. Then, after the siege, he had to turn to fight the Bulgars, and left the army in 680 due to poor health. His army panicked, was wrecked by the Bulgars, and he was forced to recognize their state and pay tribute. Soon after that he mutilated his own two brothers, to prevent their usurping the throne, and in 685 he died of dysentery, at the age of only 33.

To succeed him he left Justinian II...whose two reigns were for the most part bloodthirsty disasters, and ended with the destruction of the Heraclian line.

Now, my question is, what if his health had held up in 680 and he had been able to defeat the transient Bulgars, resettling them in Anatolia as was the custom at the time and thus strengthening the empire? This success raises army morale and makes them more tractable, leading to them not rebelling when he tried to demote his brothers from imperium and raise his son instead [the timeline is unclear on this, but it all seems to have happened in 681, after the humiliating loss against the Bulgars, which makes sense, as Justinian II is 13 by then as well].

His brothers remain as useful, high profile, high prestige allies to the emperor, since of course they are safer and more secure with a relative on the throne, so long as they don't make any moves toward the throne. His son Justinian II is raised in a less stressful environment and so his madness doesn't come out for a while yet, which can only be good, seeing as it led to the disastrous reigns of Leontius, Tiberius III (well okay, Tiberius was alright), Philippicus Bardanes, Anastasius II, and Theodosius III, as well as general unrest and the execution of many no doubt talented civil servants.

Now more generally and future-looking, it seems like the trend toward farmer-soldiers as opposed to great landowners in Anatolia will continue, and iconoclasm will probably still rise as a conflict, though it may be less devastating due to no emperors from the East coming to power for the time being.

Obviously monothelitism has been stamped into the dust by Constantine. Will the stability of his rule and Justinian II's be able to prevent iconoclasm from becoming an issue at all? What do you all think?
 

Deleted member 97083

@General_Finley suggested a similar idea in a previous thread (Underlooked Medieval/Arabic/Byzantine PODs).

Constantine IV's gout doesn't flair up before the Battle of Ongal so he doesn't leave the battle field which caused panic in his troops as they feared the Emperor had abandoned them to die. Victory at the Battle of Ongal either fractures the the Seven Slavic tribes making them much more manageable preventing the creation of the Bulgarian Empire before it could even form, or results in them pushing into the Pannonian Plain like the Magyars and menacing Central Europe rather than the Roman Empire. This likely butterflies away the circumstances that led to him him contracting dysentery five years later. Seeing as he was only 33 at the time of his death, he had the potential to rule for at least another decade if not two. This means no terror of Justinian (or at leas a very different one), no Twenty Years of Anarchy, and no rise of the Isaurians and their Iconoclastic ideology, i.e. it means preventing three of the worst things to happen to the Roman Empire since the fall of Egypt and Syria.

Definitely a significant POD for the Byzantine Empire as a whole.
 
I'm working on a TL about this very PoD, I've been thinking about it for a while, but with this summer break I think I've got the time to crank out a fair amount.

defeat the transient Bulgars, resettling them in Anatolia
Possible, but you have to remember that Constantine IV, while a very capable Emperor, was not one who dreamed big. He recognized the constraints on the Empire and tried not to push them. He treated with the Lombards, in effect recognizing their Italian conquests, he ended the imperial push for Monothelitism essentially acknowledging the the future of the empire was one that would be centered around Europe and Asia Minor rather than the universal Empire his father and grandfather had sought to restore. If subjugating the Bulgars means crossing the Danube for several expensive campaigns he will likely seek a favorable peace that keeps them north of the river. The Avars are fairly strong at this point, so the Bulgars are going to have tough go of things if they push west into the Carpathian Basin, but maybe Asparuh can push West and support Kuber and his mixed Bulgar Byzantine subjects and deal the Avars an early death blow.
 

Red Orm

Banned
What I meant in particular is defeat the Bulgars, keep them on the other side of the Danube, resettle prisoners and captured families in Anatolia. It would be fairly impossible to resettle as many people as the numerous Bulgars.
 
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