WI: Constantine defeated at Milvian Bridge in 312?

A good POD that I feel doesn't often get enough attention is the defeat of Constantine in 312 by Maxentius. I have browsed through many old threads here during the many years of my membership, and have noticed that the discussion often tends to get bogged down by questions of religious policy. Of course, that is not to say that these are not good and interesting questions relating to the effects of a Constantinian defeat, but, leaving aside the topic of Christianity and imperial religious policy, I'd like to focus on the immediate aftermath surrounding such a POD.

The exact POD I'm considering is this: Maxentius manages to defeat Constantine in October or November, 312, either at Milvian Bridge or an ATL site of battle. During the battle, Constantine is killed and Maxentius is left master of the West.

Now, keep in mind, Licinius is at this time campaigning against Maximinus Daia in the East, who is supported by Maxentius. Does Licinius make an effort to ally with Maxentius after the latter's victory, as he did with Constantine in OTL, if only temporarily in order to take care of Maximinus Daia? Or does he concentrate on Maximinus Daia and ignore Maxentius as a usurper for the time being?

Also, let's assume that Licinius goes on to defeat Maximinus Daia by the end of 313, who then commits suicide, more or less as in OTL:

I imagine he then turns his attentions to the West, in order to tie up loose ends and secure power? From what I've read, I'd put my money on Licinius coming out victorious over Maxentius, given his superior experience and skill as a general. If that's the case, and he manages to defeat Maxentius sometime around 315-316, who does he set up in the West? Perhaps Valerius Valens or his magister officiorum, Martinian, as in OTL? Or does he remain sole ruler for a while, as Constantine I in OTL, before setting up a son, son-in-law or other relative later on down the road?
 
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Was Maximinus Daia supported by Maxentius? And was Licinius in a formal alliance with Constantine before the battle of Milvian bridge?
 
From what I've read (and I may be mistaken), I'm under the impression that Maxentius allied himself more or less officially with Daia and this compelled Licinius and Constantine to ally in opposition before Milvian Bridge.

As to how active or committed Maxentius' support of Daia was, I am unsure. I do know that Licinius' betrothal to Constantine's sister Constantia occurred before Milvian Bridge to seal the alliance of the two emperors, though the marriage itself did not take place until the spring of 313 at Milan.

My thinking is that Maxentius may turn his back on Daia and at least offer Licinius a truce and recognition in the east if the tides turn on Daia in an ATL Battle of Tzirallum.

Although I wonder if it a victory for Maxentius will result in Licinius making the first move against Daia ITTL, rather than the other way around, as in OTL, where the victory of Licinius' ally Constantine against Maxentius sufficiently alarmed Daia enough to make the first move.
 
On a second point: It occurred to me that if Licinius feels compelled to move against Maximinus Daia first ITTL (as Daia did against him OTL after Maxentius' defeat), the over all result of the war may be very different. Licinius was a superior general, but Maximinus Daia was more than capable of holding his own against him at Tzirallum in OTL. It's also worth noting that Daia originally had the advantage of superior numbers and highly disciplined veterans coming back from campaigning in Armenia the year before, but foul weather and conditions on their march north from Syria to take the offensive in Thrace led to his forces being significantly weakened by the time that they faced Licinius.

Maximinus Daia could thus very well end up victorious in the east in this scenario.

I imagine that if he were there'd be stability between he and his colleague Maxentius for a time at least. Would it be likely to result in all out civil war eventually, as with Constantine and Licinius in OTL? Or would they be content to divide the Empire between themselves?
 
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