WI: Conservatives win single-figure majority in 1924 general election

The Conservatives actually won a landslide majority of 209 seats, see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924. But the book The Age of Alignment: Electoral Politics in Britain 1922-1929 by Chris Cook, London: Macmillan, 1975, gives forecasts of the result made by the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties on the day before the election, and by Beatrice Webb. These ranged as follows: Conservatives 286-311, Labour 195-235, Liberals 85-124, others 5 or 6.

What if the result was Conservative 311, Labour 214, Liberal 85, others 5, making a Conservative majority of 7. The forecasts didn't mention the Constitutionalist candidates, of whom the best known was Winston Churchill. I assume they were included in the Conservative and Liberal totals.

Stanley Baldwin would have become Prime Minister at the head of a Conservative government, but his majority would have been eroded by losses in by-elections. During the 1924-1929 Parliament in OTL, the Conservatives lost 10 seats to Labour, and had a net loss of 4 seats to the Liberals.

In OTL Neville Chamberlain beat Oswald Mosley by 77 votes in Birmingham Ladywood. In my scenario Mosley would have been elected. I expect Baldwin would still have appointed Chamberlain as Minister of Health, and a by-election created for him in a safe Conservative seat.

What are plausible developments in party support in the short to medium
term? In particular with the Liberals winning more than twice the seats they actually won, would their decline have been slowed down, perhaps even halted and they continued to be a significant party?

Lastly why were the forecasts out by so much?
 
Hmm, I'm guessing causes of a smaller majority would be: no Zinoviev Letter, MacD's government is more successful in lowering unemployment and is defeated over a less toxic issue than the Soviet treaty, and the public is still worried about the Conservatives' attachment to tariffs.

The Conservatives were racked by profound insecurity during the inter-war period about the rise of mass democracy and the Labour party. The necessity of courting Liberal support is probably strengthened in Baldwin's mind here. I doubt he'd go for another election after there had been two elections in the past year, but perhaps there could be one in 1926 or 1927? Assuming no butterflies, it would interesting to how the Conservatives react to a General Strike under this scenario, it did result in a radicalisation of many apolitical working class voters so another election would probably benefit Labour like OTL.
 
Even if Baldwin technically loses his majority he would still be safe in votes of no confidence with the support of right-wing Liberals. If the Conservatives are losing by-elections in 1926 or 1927, Baldwin probably would not call a general election.
 

Thande

Donor
Hmm, I'm guessing causes of a smaller majority would be: no Zinoviev Letter

Or perhaps a Zinoviev Letter that is published but then exposed as a fake? Some people would still believe it anyway, hence the Tories don't lose big, but it might drive many swing voters towards Labour.
 
Another scenario would be if the result of the election was roughly the median forecasts for each party. So Conservatives 298 seats, Labour 215 seats, Liberals 97 seats, others 5 seats [1 Communist, 1 Irish Nationalist, 1 Socialist Prohibition Party, and two pro Conservative independents].

Would Ramsay MacDonald resign immediately as Prime Minister in favour of Stanley Baldwin, or would he continue in office in the hope that until the Labour government is not defeated on the King's Speech by right-wing Liberals and the two independents combining with the Conservatives? In OTL Parliament assembled on 2 December 1924.
 
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