The Conservatives actually won a landslide majority of 209 seats, see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924. But the book The Age of Alignment: Electoral Politics in Britain 1922-1929 by Chris Cook, London: Macmillan, 1975, gives forecasts of the result made by the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties on the day before the election, and by Beatrice Webb. These ranged as follows: Conservatives 286-311, Labour 195-235, Liberals 85-124, others 5 or 6.
What if the result was Conservative 311, Labour 214, Liberal 85, others 5, making a Conservative majority of 7. The forecasts didn't mention the Constitutionalist candidates, of whom the best known was Winston Churchill. I assume they were included in the Conservative and Liberal totals.
Stanley Baldwin would have become Prime Minister at the head of a Conservative government, but his majority would have been eroded by losses in by-elections. During the 1924-1929 Parliament in OTL, the Conservatives lost 10 seats to Labour, and had a net loss of 4 seats to the Liberals.
In OTL Neville Chamberlain beat Oswald Mosley by 77 votes in Birmingham Ladywood. In my scenario Mosley would have been elected. I expect Baldwin would still have appointed Chamberlain as Minister of Health, and a by-election created for him in a safe Conservative seat.
What are plausible developments in party support in the short to medium
term? In particular with the Liberals winning more than twice the seats they actually won, would their decline have been slowed down, perhaps even halted and they continued to be a significant party?
Lastly why were the forecasts out by so much?
What if the result was Conservative 311, Labour 214, Liberal 85, others 5, making a Conservative majority of 7. The forecasts didn't mention the Constitutionalist candidates, of whom the best known was Winston Churchill. I assume they were included in the Conservative and Liberal totals.
Stanley Baldwin would have become Prime Minister at the head of a Conservative government, but his majority would have been eroded by losses in by-elections. During the 1924-1929 Parliament in OTL, the Conservatives lost 10 seats to Labour, and had a net loss of 4 seats to the Liberals.
In OTL Neville Chamberlain beat Oswald Mosley by 77 votes in Birmingham Ladywood. In my scenario Mosley would have been elected. I expect Baldwin would still have appointed Chamberlain as Minister of Health, and a by-election created for him in a safe Conservative seat.
What are plausible developments in party support in the short to medium
term? In particular with the Liberals winning more than twice the seats they actually won, would their decline have been slowed down, perhaps even halted and they continued to be a significant party?
Lastly why were the forecasts out by so much?