WI: Conservative Minority 2010?

What if - as had previously been expected and deemed most likely by pundits - the Conservatives formed a minority government following the 2010 election? How long could it last and what the effects be?
 
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-...changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--

Interestingly, in this TL, Ed Balls loses his seat. ;) A minority government of nine, but take into account Sinn Fein, the Speaker and occasional bill-by-bill support from the DUP and others, you find yourself with a relatively uncomfortable minority for the Conservatives.

Probably you'll see Cameron trying his best to appease backbenchers instead of pulling the Liberal Democrats into coalition and offering them concessions.
 
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-...changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--

Interestingly, in this TL, Ed Balls loses his seat. ;) A minority government of nine, but take into account Sinn Fein, the Speaker and occasional bill-by-bill support from the DUP and others, you find yourself with a relatively uncomfortable minority for the Conservatives.

Probably you'll see Cameron trying his best to appease backbenchers instead of pulling the Liberal Democrats into coalition and offering them concessions.

What would the effects of this be on Nick Clegg, Labour etc? Could there be another election?
 
Almost certainly another election in October, the Conservatives would have no interest in needing to negotiate every bill and as the most financially stable and positive economic figures they'd have a decent chance at a majority. It could backfire though, Labour would probably have a far quicker leadership election, one that would probably avoid the perfect storm that led to Ed's leadership, David might have been more attractive to the electorate than Brown. Clegg might also have been able properly harness the brief outrage at the voting system that sprang from the 2010 result to offset the Liberal Democrats poor financial position.
 
Definitely benefits Clegg and the Lib Dems. They won't be affiliated with the more unpopular policies of the Coalition and will retain much of their support among students and other "small l" liberals.

The election might be rough for Labour if they have to quickly elect a new leader and organize for another go-round in a short period of time. David Milliband's probably the leader in this context and appeals more to the Blairite strand of the party. This could actually backfire in the general, if Clegg and company can tie him to the more unpopular elements of "homeland security" in Blair's tenure.

Ultimately, the Conservatives will probably gain seats and possibly a majority. The Lib Dems will likely see gains as they continue to rail against the electoral system. Labour may be the biggest losers in all of this.
 
That's actually what I expected to happen after the 2010 election. I didn't think Cameron and the Tories would be willing to live with a coalition so I thought they'd go with a minority government. I thought that it would soon lead to another election, one in which the Conservatives would probably win a narrow majority.

I'm pretty sure that if there's another election it wouldn't see Brown leading Labour into it.

I wonder if a quick second election would lead to more tactical voting, particularly in marginal seats, with voters for whichever party is out of the running perhaps being more inclined to thnk that if they vote for the party they dislike less they might be able to keep the seat numbers down for the party they most dislike.
 
Another election by the end of 2011. Lib Dems makes significant inroads, Tories lose ground, David Miliband's Labour hold steady. Make-up of the Commons is probably something like this:

Lab - 275
Con - 260
Lib Dems - 80
Others - 30

The Liberal Democrats form a coaliton with Labour in return for a referendum on PR. Cameron is quickly ousted as Tory leader and replaced by Theresa May or Michael Gove.
 
I certainly don't see UKIP being as big as it is now - without the Lib Dems collapsing and without the Tory backbenches being ignored they won't have that niche to grow into.
 
I remember reading that the Tories were the only party with any money in the aftermath of the the 2010 General Election as Labour were basically bankrupt with big debts and the Lib Dems had spent their warchest. The Tories in contrast were relatively debt free, still had some money in the bank and had lots of rich donors to call upon.
While UK elections are a lot less money dependent than US one's money is always helpful so the financial factor alone might win the them another few seats.
 
I remember reading that the Tories were the only party with any money in the aftermath of the the 2010 General Election as Labour were basically bankrupt with big debts and the Lib Dems had spent their warchest. The Tories in contrast were relatively debt free, still had some money in the bank and had lots of rich donors to call upon.
While UK elections are a lot less money dependent than US one's money is always helpful so the financial factor alone might win the them another few seats.

Oh Tories had financial problems, but were far more prepared for a national campaign compared to their opposition.

You also have to take into account that initial budget and what Osborne does with it and the potential gains or losses. Initially the 2010 budget resulted in a increase in the polls for the Conservatives but that could have been based on the honeymoon period for government and the budget in this scenario would be different.

Without the coalition, we also have to consider just who else comes on board in his cabinet to keep his backbenchers appeased. So, lets say a 4th November election he also has to content with Nick Clegg not losing popularity among his supporters and if he is able to play it smart could take support from both Labour and Conservatives.

The leader of Labour is another problem, that election will be done by September most likely. They know there will be an election within 12 months so will likely choose someone they think will win so David probably wins.
 
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