WI: Confederate Victory at Anietam

What if the Confederates won the Battle of Anietam in the Civil War? Would it have been like a Saratoga in the Revolutionary War, making the British and French come in on the Rebel side? Start!
 
What if the Confederates won the Battle of Anietam in the Civil War? Would it have been like a Saratoga in the Revolutionary War, making the British and French come in on the Rebel side? Start!

Well, first of all, tactically the Confederates DID win the battle. However, the strategic situation in which they found themselves afterward forced them to retire across the Potomac, giving the Union a strategic victory.

The only way the Confederates could "win" strategically would be for the battle at Antietam/Sharpsburg never to be fought at all.
 
Given the size of the Union forces relative to the southern forces in the Maryland campaign, and the huge strategic advantae that mcClellan was given (and promptly squandered), the south was awfully lucky. The fact that the Army of Northern virginia was neither defeated in detail nor crushed as a body at Antietam is suprising, to say the least. This isn't true from a tactical standpoint, but strategically the south did extraordinarily well. I'd argue that the fact that Lee survived losing order 191, fought a decent battle, and then withdrew due to an untenable overall picture is better then the CSA could have expected from the Antietam campaign, in hindsight.
 
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It would have had major political rammifications. They Union hadn't looked too keen on the Eastern Theater, this would be yet another strike against them. The British might have considered recognizing them as a legitimate government, though there is debate on how likely that was.

The draft riots would have likely been worse and more widespread. No one wanted to be drafted into the bloodiest conflict in the nations history, being drafted on what appeared to be the loosing side wouldn't have helped. If things got too bad then it might have empowered some of the anti war political groups like the copperheads to cause more trouble.

This would have definitely worked in the Confederates favor. Lee knew they had to accomplish their goals quickly if they were going to have a chance at all. If they waited they would be smothered in troops.
 
TL-191 is Harry Turtledove's vision of what might have happened during the 1862 invasion of Maryland.

As for the actual battle of Antietam... by the time it had been forced it's quite simple amazing they did as well as they did. The tactical situation was nightmarish for the South.

They were outnumbered 3 to 1, their entire force wasn't even on the field, and their rear was to the river. The simple fact they escaped destruction that day was a marvel. The Confederates faught ferociously. They knew how desperate their situation was, and I'm hard pressed to even think of any battle in history where an army escaped from the cusp of destruction like that.

Tactically the won a huge victory. Albeit they were assisted by the most inept field commander in US history(McClellan would've been a great Chief of Staff but that's another arguement). Strategiclly, Lee had to withdraw after that battle. His army simply couldn't survive another battle like that. But he did get most of his force back to Virginia, which is a minor miracle after all the setbacks that campaign suffered.

As for the Union victory? Lincoln had to be reaching pretty hard to declare that a norther triumph worthy enough to make the Emancapation Proclomation. An interesting AH hypothetical... what if Lincoln didn't relieve McClellan, the victor of Antietam? Course even McClellan would be hard pressed to screw up as badly as Burnside did at Fredricksburg.
 
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