WI: Confederate Independence. Union takes Canada.

the TL "The Black and the Gray" presents/hypothesis that the United States, after losing in the Civil War invades and conquerors Canada. Their reasons for doing this was because of British interference in creating commerce raiders during the Civil War. Could this have plausibly happened? Could the United States actually wage a successful war against Canada and the British empire of the time and actually win?
 
Last edited:
Yes. Wait, when? The 1860s? They could invade Canada but their ports are doomed.
I'd say the 1890s are the earliest they could, and even then it's roughly even.
A Confederate Victory almost always includes an American Canada, because it's nearly impossible for the Confederates to win without British help.
 
Even up till War Plan Red the British basically expected, and accepted, that the Americans would over-run Canada. The British wouldn't reinforce North America but would instead wreck havoc on American commerce, shipping, and ports, and basically keep the US out of the Atlantic at all costs. The thinking was this would force Washington to come to peace, and London would lose Canada, but retain the rest of the empire.
 
In The guns of the south by Turtledove the same thing happens. Throughout the latter part of the book the Union(armed with prototype repeaters) invades Canada. The invasion seems to be successful. There are few specific details mentioned that sound realistic. of course, this was with the U.S. having a very large technological advantage in guns, so it may be a bit skewed.
 
Shortly after losing to a bunch of plantation owners, Lincoln decides to turn on the most powerful and industrilalized nation the world has ever seen.

Hrm. Needs work.

The problem is that threre's no reason for the UK or USA to fight.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
With luck and surprise the US could overrun much of Canada. However it is extremely doubtful they could overrun the two major imperial bases of Quebec and Halifax (nor Kingston and Montreal, but they are isolated part of the year and so more vulnerable). Without taking these a British reconquest is a simple given.

For the US to keep Canada post-war the British need to be pushed into an extreme position - i.e. one that threatens the home islands directly. The British simply have no need to accept this and can prolong any war indefinitely until the US agrees to their terms, which would include no US territorial gains at Britains' expense.

British warplans always assumed at least some of British North America would be overrun. However, as long as Halifax and Quebec were secure then there was no doubt of the eventual result.
 
Shortly after losing to a bunch of plantation owners, Lincoln decides to turn on the most powerful and industrilalized nation the world has ever seen.

Hrm. Needs work.

The problem is that threre's no reason for the UK or USA to fight.

Trent Affair gone wrong? The British recognize the Confederacy and force the US blockade to open trade? There's plenty of reasons for a possible war. I don't think its a matter of the ACW happens, then the Union invades Canada, I think it'd happen concurrently.
 
Trent Affair gone wrong? The British recognize the Confederacy and force the US blockade to open trade? There's plenty of reasons for a possible war. I don't think its a matter of the ACW happens, then the Union invades Canada, I think it'd happen concurrently.

I think it is perfectly possible that if Britain recognised the CSA, then Lincoln would keep quiet. Especially after the Trent Affair when the US appeared to be losing/not doing very well against the Confederacy on its own. Fighting a war on two fronts is really going to solve that particular problem:rolleyes:
 
The answer, for a one-word, simple response is no. A medium response is there's not a snowball's chance in Hell the USA, if the CSA gets independence, will be able to take on the UK of the 1860s. They can fight, they may win dramatic initial victories, but the USA has much chance in the 1860s and 1870s against the British as Japan did against the USA in WWII.
 
tbh the whole thing makes no sense...cos for the confederates to win the acw, even with british help, they wouldve needed to destroy the unions industrialized zones to force them into submission to end the war...something that, if had happened, wouldve emant that the union couldndt have invaded british canada as they would spend years dealing fixing their nations growth, ecnonmy, and probaly other seperatist sentiments in former independent colonies (like vermont)
 
tbh the whole thing makes no sense...cos for the confederates to win the acw, even with british help, they wouldve needed to destroy the unions industrialized zones to force them into submission to end the war...something that, if had happened, wouldve emant that the union couldndt have invaded british canada as they would spend years dealing fixing their nations growth, ecnonmy, and probaly other seperatist sentiments in former independent colonies (like vermont)

Nah, the CSA only needs to wear down the political will of the USA to sustain the war. Now, whether or not it could have done this for years and then enjoy the kind of peace it would have afterward......
 
In The guns of the south by Turtledove the same thing happens. Throughout the latter part of the book the Union(armed with prototype repeaters) invades Canada. The invasion seems to be successful. There are few specific details mentioned that sound realistic. of course, this was with the U.S. having a very large technological advantage in guns, so it may be a bit skewed.

and this is a realistic scenario ...why

oh forgot...its NOT
 
Yes. Wait, when? The 1860s? They could invade Canada but their ports are doomed.
I'd say the 1890s are the earliest they could, and even then it's roughly even.
A Confederate Victory almost always includes an American Canada, because it's nearly impossible for the Confederates to win without British help.

And this translates to an American victory how, given that the bulk of forces would be arrayed against the Confederacy...

Wait..i get it it doesn`t
 
Shortly after losing to a bunch of plantation owners, Lincoln decides to turn on the most powerful and industrilalized nation the world has ever seen.

Hrm. Needs work.

The problem is that threre's no reason for the UK or USA to fight.

i agree some one need s therapy there in that case...cause its just asking for a stomping.

The Americans could walk all over Canada most certainly with their veteran army...but the British Empire will never concede anything but a White peace if the Americans are lucky. Americans can be some of the most prideful people in their nation, but the concept of national pride is a British invention ....
to concede defeat in the mid 1800`s to a state that just lost half itself through civil war is not happening for a very long time. There is no way outside of Canada that the Americans can inflict even superficial damage to the Br. Empire but the Br. Empire, should they set their mind to it, they will strangle the US economy to the point of becoming a subsistence economy only. Nascent industry will be destroyed beyond the internal economy only. No Exports, no imports, and no immigrants, no capital investment, while a state of war exists.

I would be surprised if a US that stubbornly refused to make peace on British terms didn`t implode from rising political instability between its various sectional interests. Not to mention that a victorious CSA, which if its won, has barely won at all...probably considers a rematch to get those areas denied them that they didn`t get the first go around, whith the assistance of British economy and resources of course....a marriage of convenience as distastful as it seems that probably makes the Churchill Stalin alliance of convenience pale by comparison.
 
The answer, for a one-word, simple response is no. A medium response is there's not a snowball's chance in Hell the USA, if the CSA gets independence, will be able to take on the UK of the 1860s. They can fight, they may win dramatic initial victories, but the USA has much chance in the 1860s and 1870s against the British as Japan did against the USA in WWII.


Furthermore, I think that most indivduals in Government on both sides with any sense at all new this as well. hence why I thought the country would implode politically if they were intransigient to British peace overtures to end the carnage.. there will be more than a few in the US who will be opposed to the entire project from the start, and their hands will only strengthen as the war drags on without an end in sight.
 
Top