WI: Confederate Capital Not in Richmond

Saphroneth

Banned
There was a lot of talk about it, though no offically policy decisions. Mrs. Davis for example sent out invitations in 1861 to a celebratory party to be held at the White House after the city was 'liberated'. It would of course require Maryland to secede.
Right, though of course Maryland was probably the state most likely to do so apart from the ones which actually did. (Especially if the 1861 measures have taken place, since they'd turn opinion against the North - and even more so if the slavery issue has become stark.)
 
Right, though of course Maryland was probably the state most likely to do so apart from the ones which actually did. (Especially if the 1861 measures have taken place, since they'd turn opinion against the North - and even more so if the slavery issue has become stark.)

Considering how vulnerable Maryland was to invasion from the North and how quickly large number of troops got there and how pro-Union the B&O railroad company management was, not really. If they tried to join the CSA they would have been slapped down , quickly.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Considering how vulnerable Maryland was to invasion from the North and how quickly large number of troops got there and how pro-Union the B&O railroad company management was, not really. If they tried to join the CSA they would have been slapped down , quickly.
We are sort of assuming that the CSA manages to somehow get independent. And the very fact that lots of troops are the argument shows that there was quite possibly the will to join.
 
We are sort of assuming that the CSA manages to somehow get independent. And the very fact that lots of troops are the argument shows that there was quite possibly the will to join.

Somehow getting independence does not equal "get everything including the kitchen sink". The CSA would be lucky to keep TN not talking gaining MD.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Somehow getting independence does not equal "get everything including the kitchen sink". The CSA would be lucky to keep TN not talking gaining MD.
There's independence and independence - certainly in a peace of exhaustion the CSA doesn't have much bargaining power, but other kinds of CS victory can result in other things.

I'm going to be running into the peace discussion in my TL shortly - this being a situation where due to Trent the CSA to some extent has the whip hand. The Union might be faced with a choice with what they want to give up from the CS war aims (i.e. Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, New Mexico, South California and all the states they considered officially part of the CSA) - in the current Union situation they simply can't blanket refuse.

Actually - what things would the Union prioritize?

The possible things are:

Delaware
East Maryland
West Maryland
North Kentucky
South Kentucky
West Virginia (small)
West Virginia (large)
SE Missouri
Rest of Missouri
Kansas
New Mexico Territory
South California as State of Colorado
 
There's independence and independence - certainly in a peace of exhaustion the CSA doesn't have much bargaining power, but other kinds of CS victory can result in other things.

I'm going to be running into the peace discussion in my TL shortly - this being a situation where due to Trent the CSA to some extent has the whip hand. The Union might be faced with a choice with what they want to give up from the CS war aims (i.e. Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, New Mexico, South California and all the states they considered officially part of the CSA) - in the current Union situation they simply can't blanket refuse.

Actually - what things would the Union prioritize?

The possible things are:

Delaware
East Maryland
West Maryland
North Kentucky
South Kentucky
West Virginia (small)
West Virginia (large)
SE Missouri
Rest of Missouri
Kansas
New Mexico Territory
South California as State of Colorado


Barring ASBs even in a Trent war all the CSA is getting is peace. GB would want to wrap things up quick. Being allied to a slavocracy would be pretty controversial as is without helping it to grab even more territory to expand slavery into or preserve. God help it when another war breaks out in Europe as the first thing on the Union's agenda is to take Canada quick so that it can take the CSA later without British interference. Delaware is straight out, even Jeff Davis knew that was a lost cause. Kentucky was lost very early along with Missouri. I doubt that the CSA would even want Kansas by then, that is a guaranteed war zone day one.
 
There's independence and independence - certainly in a peace of exhaustion the CSA doesn't have much bargaining power, but other kinds of CS victory can result in other things.

I'm going to be running into the peace discussion in my TL shortly - this being a situation where due to Trent the CSA to some extent has the whip hand. The Union might be faced with a choice with what they want to give up from the CS war aims (i.e. Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, New Mexico, South California and all the states they considered officially part of the CSA) - in the current Union situation they simply can't blanket refuse.

The North could make a blanket refusal to any ground the CSA was not standing on at the time of the peace conference. Britain does not have the power to force the North to do that no matter what the situation at sea. Britain might enforce a guarantee of the seceding states, but beyond that the CSA would be on its own.

The absolute best the CSA might end up with is carving out the coveted Arizona Territory in the south west, wrangling for a plebiscite in Kentucky and Missouri, and arranging it so that Oklahoma would fall under their influence with all the treaties they made with the tribes there. The North is under no pressure to give up an inch of ground they don't have to, and whoever the CSA's allies are they would not be sincerely interested in prolonging the war in the name of enlarging the CSA if the CSA can't win a decisive military victory on all fronts

As this relates to the Confederate capital the CSA would wrangle for enough space to protect Richmond, or they might feel they need to move it somewhere else, which means it might end up in Atlanta.
 
You can't move the Tredegar Iron Works with the infrastructure and technology of the ACW Confederacy. This is not the Soviet Union of 1941 moving industires across the Urals. Furthermore during the downtime of the transfer, iron production in the CSA takes a huge hit (Birmingham, AL did not really exist as a steel center until well after the ACW). Also, the USSR was able to move all of the workers to the new location. While slaves could be moved from Richmond to Somewhere else, can the CSA force white workers to do so...nope.

Besides, how easy would it be to reconstruct the iron works on a river somewhere else? I mean the potential of slave labor to work wonders of physical labor is disturbingly present in history, but I can't imagine that all the necessary industrial know how is well represented in the ranks of the South.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Delaware was a loyal slave state.

And that's the thing - the Trent affair has the serious potential to cause a catastrophic collapse of the Union military position. They can actually end up with fewer troops in absolute numbers than the Confederacy if the small arms issue is particuarly nasty, their banking system can more or less collapse, and the Union then has to allocate something like 1/4 to 1/3 their army to defend against the British (coast and Canada). That's a situation in which the Confederacy absolutely could start winning decisive victories on several fronts, and every time they carry the field they capture small arms the Union can ill afford to lose.
Summer 1862 is the point the Union started mobilizing its advantages, OTL - but it was still dependent on things like European small arms, and the army was not nearly as good as it would become in 1863.


It's a situation the Union could rectify given enough time, of course - it's still stronger industrially and has more manpower, so the problems are temporary - but in Summer 1862 under these conditions the Union is going to have to make some very hard choices about what to defend... and I think it's entirely possible that when the dust settles on the way into autumn there are Confederate boots on the ground in much of the contested territory.

So, if the Union is forced to make choices about where to defend, and will then be forced to contemplate whether to trade Occupied Maryland for Kansas - what would be their priority list?
 
Delaware was a loyal slave state.

And that's the thing - the Trent affair has the serious potential to cause a catastrophic collapse of the Union military position. They can actually end up with fewer troops in absolute numbers than the Confederacy if the small arms issue is particuarly nasty, their banking system can more or less collapse, and the Union then has to allocate something like 1/4 to 1/3 their army to defend against the British (coast and Canada). That's a situation in which the Confederacy absolutely could start winning decisive victories on several fronts, and every time they carry the field they capture small arms the Union can ill afford to lose.
Summer 1862 is the point the Union started mobilizing its advantages, OTL - but it was still dependent on things like European small arms, and the army was not nearly as good as it would become in 1863.


It's a situation the Union could rectify given enough time, of course - it's still stronger industrially and has more manpower, so the problems are temporary - but in Summer 1862 under these conditions the Union is going to have to make some very hard choices about what to defend... and I think it's entirely possible that when the dust settles on the way into autumn there are Confederate boots on the ground in much of the contested territory.

So, if the Union is forced to make choices about where to defend, and will then be forced to contemplate whether to trade Occupied Maryland for Kansas - what would be their priority list?

The CSA didn't want Kansas anymore than it wanted Mozambique. Kansas would be nothing but bleeding, running sore that they could never hold. Kansas was one of the most pro-Union states out there. Even Jeff Davis wasn't batshit insane enough to want Kansas!
 
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