WI: Communist Taiwan

As we know the Republic of China set up a government in exile in Taiwan (and eventually a proper government) there.

However, what if instead, the Republic won (this isn't a wi the republic of china won the civil war question) and it was Mao and the other communists (including all other major leaders) who lost and were forced to flee to Taiwan and set up government there.

What would a modern day, communist (or state capitalist if they go the same route as otl china) Taiwan look like?
 
As we know the Republic of China set up a government in exile in Taiwan (and eventually a proper government) there.

However, what if instead, the Republic won (this isn't a wi the republic of china won the civil war question) and it was Mao and the other communists (including all other major leaders) who lost and were forced to flee to Taiwan and set up government there.

What would a modern day, communist (or state capitalist if they go the same route as otl china) Taiwan look like?

Well, you'd likely end up with a much more... radical government. Both as a way to protect against "infiltration", the need to fully militierize the nation to defend against Chaing Ki-Chek "unleashing" himself on their island (The Soviet Navy is unlikely to try to protect them in a similar manner to how the US defend Taiwan in our timeline: the US has too much of an advantage in the Pacific for it to be worth the risk), and the fact that the more moderating peasant influences ("Peace, Land, and Bread" fair weather Communists) are the least likely to flee and the most politically radical Communists the most likely. They'd also be motivatied to try to build a new identity that's as not-Mainland Chinese as possible to avoid losing a culture war, so I expect to see an early Cultural Revolution: trying to purge all the arrivals and the unfortunate locals of Capitalist ideals and entrench Maoist thought.

Formosa also has a fairly underdeveloped economy; it never really had a period where a lot of industrial capital was invested in it and lacks much in the way of raw resources (Unlike the IRL Communist base in Manchuria), so you're more likely to see a "Cuban" model of Communism as opposed to the industrialization efforts we saw IRL. Hell, the Japanese tried to use the island as their sugar bowl during the first decade of their control: the Soviets might decided to make contracts to buy sugar from Mao (Which would, in turn, require him making an ideological shift closer to the Soviet Union and maintain state management of land so functional plantation-style agriculture could exist)), or perhaps as a source of calories for Siberia.
 
Well, you'd likely end up with a much more... radical government. Both as a way to protect against "infiltration", the need to fully militierize the nation to defend against Chaing Ki-Chek "unleashing" himself on their island (The Soviet Navy is unlikely to try to protect them in a similar manner to how the US defend Taiwan in our timeline: the US has too much of an advantage in the Pacific for it to be worth the risk), and the fact that the more moderating peasant influences ("Peace, Land, and Bread" fair weather Communists) are the least likely to flee and the most politically radical Communists the most likely. They'd also be motivatied to try to build a new identity that's as not-Mainland Chinese as possible to avoid losing a culture war, so I expect to see an early Cultural Revolution: trying to purge all the arrivals and the unfortunate locals of Capitalist ideals and entrench Maoist thought.

Formosa also has a fairly underdeveloped economy; it never really had a period where a lot of industrial capital was invested in it and lacks much in the way of raw resources (Unlike the IRL Communist base in Manchuria), so you're more likely to see a "Cuban" model of Communism as opposed to the industrialization efforts we saw IRL. Hell, the Japanese tried to use the island as their sugar bowl during the first decade of their control: the Soviets might decided to make contracts to buy sugar from Mao (Which would, in turn, require him making an ideological shift closer to the Soviet Union and maintain state management of land so functional plantation-style agriculture could exist)), or perhaps as a source of calories for Siberia.

so in a way, because of the lack of minerals, they become a more agriculturally based society as a result i'd assume right? Would they also be heavily into textiles and manufacturing?
 
I'm not sure they could send up in Taiwan, much of their power base was in the North of the country and interior. The last Republican holdouts were by the sea, but I could be wrong, any ideas on how Maos lot would get there?
 
This would require that the Communists be in control of areas like Fujian--which in OTL were among the *last* provinces to fall to them--somehow nevertheless lose the Civil War and then somehow occupy a Taiwan that the Allies had turned over to the Nationalists in 1945. (I think you'll agree it's not terribly plausible that the Allies turn over Taiwan to the Communists in 1945...) I don't quite get how this happens.
 
so in a way, because of the lack of minerals, they become a more agriculturally based society as a result i'd assume right? Would they also be heavily into textiles and manufacturing?

... Textiles and manufacturing? Using what inputs? The Soviets aren't going to be shipping out central asian cotton or materials. Mainland China is embargoing them along with the rest of the Capitalist world. It doesn't make any economic sense.
 
The ROC spends ten years building up its navy and amphibious capacity, and then storms Taiwan.

That's the issue I feel also, in OTL Taiwan enjoyed backing by the US and by extension its Navy, in a scenario where Taiwan is communist, its going to be a tiny island of Communism in a sea of capitalist aligned states. Korea would likely be unified under the south. The USSR is going up be very far away, Red Taiwan would not be long for the world as Nationalist China would want to reunite all of China proper.
 
That's the issue I feel also, in OTL Taiwan enjoyed backing by the US and by extension its Navy, in a scenario where Taiwan is communist, its going to be a tiny island of Communism in a sea of capitalist aligned states. Korea would likely be unified under the south. The USSR is going up be very far away, Red Taiwan would not be long for the world as Nationalist China would want to reunite all of China proper.

Well, again, we need to take the premise of the thread for granted. That's the kind of thing one has to do in Alt-history threads: otherwise, we can't discuss unusual/less likely scenarios. For the sake of arguement, let's assume the Soviets for some reason back the Communist Taiwanese/Formosians and the US agrees: maybe the Soviets threaten to use their UN veto to stop intervention in the Korean War (After all, without a PRC victory on the mainland I doubt they'll be boycotting the Security Council as they did in our timeline). For some reason, they value Taiwan more than North Korea and strike a deal with the US not to intervene in the North / Hold Glorious Leader the First back in exchange for recognition of Taiwan as a separate state. Moscow builds a Red Fleet naval base there and, eventually, airfields and missle sites as a way to keep the ROC honest. Basically, we have a situation where Asia isen't considered the "Hot Theature" of the Cold War.

The Nationalists still have a lot of domestic problems to deal with on the mainland, and want US capital and a good reputation abroad to fix the problem. The Americans decide they don't want their boys dying in countries half a world away (Or see nukes fly/drop), and focus more on "Dollar Diplomacy" and soft power to convince the East Asians of the superiority of Capitalism. The Soviets don't want a war with the US and leeway to focus on the far more important theatures (Read: Europe), and Mao and the Chinese Communists are happy to survive.
 

Tyche

Donor
It would very quickly become a province of mainland china. The US Navy controls most major sea lanes and would enforce a crushing blockade and probably Bay-of-Pigs it.
 
Well, again, we need to take the premise of the thread for granted. That's the kind of thing one has to do in Alt-history threads: otherwise, we can't discuss unusual/less likely scenarios. For the sake of arguement, let's assume the Soviets for some reason back the Communist Taiwanese/Formosians and the US agrees: maybe the Soviets threaten to use their UN veto to stop intervention in the Korean War (After all, without a PRC victory on the mainland I doubt they'll be boycotting the Security Council as they did in our timeline). For some reason, they value Taiwan more than North Korea and strike a deal with the US not to intervene in the North / Hold Glorious Leader the First back in exchange for recognition of Taiwan as a separate state. Moscow builds a Red Fleet naval base there and, eventually, airfields and missle sites as a way to keep the ROC honest. Basically, we have a situation where Asia isen't considered the "Hot Theature" of the Cold War.

The Nationalists still have a lot of domestic problems to deal with on the mainland, and want US capital and a good reputation abroad to fix the problem. The Americans decide they don't want their boys dying in countries half a world away (Or see nukes fly/drop), and focus more on "Dollar Diplomacy" and soft power to convince the East Asians of the superiority of Capitalism. The Soviets don't want a war with the US and leeway to focus on the far more important theatures (Read: Europe), and Mao and the Chinese Communists are happy to survive.

ok if we need something maybe this.

Maybe under the ROC, the south does better and unifies korea under their rule.

As a result, the soviets have a vested interest in protecting the Taiwanese (as the only communist country in the region).

For the U.S. they have no desire to go into another war in the area (because of the soviets being adamant about it), so they can deal with a communist country on an island that is relatively isolated.

As for why the ROC doesn't invade, international pressure to an extent (because maybe doing so starts WWIII) but more likely, the republic has more pressing issues after a big civil war, such as rebuilding the country and winning the people over.
 

orwelans II

Banned
For one, I don't think Mao would be in charge of the island. His legitimacy as leader came from his ability to mobilise the countryside and lead the ''people's war''. If he lost the fight, he'd probably be sidelined or killed in favour of those who promoted the Comintern line, especially as the state might be dependant on the USSR to survive. He'd have to go full Kim and destroy all his opponents.
 
The ROC reunite China, execute Mao and the other Communist leaders, and are slightly more relaxed because most of the radicals fled to Taiwan and got shot.

The OTL ROC remains de facto independent due to American interference/protection. TTL PRC would have no American backing, and one island, likely filled with non-USSR communists (Long March), would not be worth war for the USSR.

OTL, the Communists still managed to grab Hainan despite having a nonexistent navy and the ROC having Yank backing. TTL, Taiwan, Kinmen, and the other islands will be reunited with the mainland by the mid-late 1950s.
 
Basically.

I'm thinking the best play for the communists would actually be trying for peaceful reintergration with the ROC.
 
Basically.

I'm thinking the best play for the communists would actually be trying for peaceful reintergration with the ROC.
After the civil war that happened, the Shanghai Massacre, and everything in between? The ROC is not willing to play nice, unless the commies aren‘t trying to supplant the ROC or spread communist beliefs.
 
After the civil war that happened, the Shanghai Massacre, and everything in between? The ROC is not willing to play nice, unless the commies aren‘t trying to supplant the ROC or spread communist beliefs.

Well it's either try that and hope the ROC is sick of war, or face your inevitable defeat. The USSR sure isn't going to stick its neck out saving your little failed state.
 
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