WI: Communist-led Finnish Govt. in 1958

[Uhura's Mazda]

In the 1958 general election in Finland, the SKDL/DFFF/Finnish People's Democratic League (a front organisation for the Communist Party) won the largest proportion of the vote, and therefore the most seats in the Eduskunta (Parliament). While this sounds impressive, in reality the party system in Finland was so fractured that this only got them 50 seats out of 200 on 23% of the vote. Subsequently, the SDP led a five-party coalition of agrarians, liberals and conservatives and locked out the Communists.

But what if the SKDL had been able to convince the SDP to join them with a left-wing coalition? This would have given them 98 seats, and the other leftists of the TPSL would have gotten them over the line with 101. Alternatively, the Swedish minority interest group (the SFP/RKP) seem to have been willing to join any coalition, and would have supplied their own 13 seats if they had done so.

Firstly, what impetus is needed to convince the SDP to join a Communist-led coalition?

Secondly, how close to Moscow was the SKDL? And would it have been possible for them to use salami tactics to take over Finland on a more permanent basis similar to Czechoslovakia and all those places in the late 1940s?

Thirdly, how would this situation have affected the wider Cold War situation? I can't imagine the US embarking on a war of containment so close to the Soviet border, but the Hawks might have been able to point to a contemporary situation where the USSR was actually being a threat to Western democratic interests. Also, the Eurocommunist movement basically died on the branch after the embarrassment of the Warsaw Pact invasion of Hungary in 1956; would the formation of this Govt. (not necessarily a full Communist takeover) have injected some new enthusiasm?

 

[David T]

Judging from Wikipedia, the SDP (apart from the minority that left the party to form the TPSL) was quite anti-Communist at the time:

"After the Continuation War, the Communist Party was allowed to work openly, and the main feature of Finnish political life during the 1944–1949 period was fierce competition between the Social Democrats and the Communists for voters and for control of the labor unions. At this time, the political field was divided roughly equally between the Social Democrats, Communists and the Agrarian League, each party commanding some 25% of the vote. In the post-war era, the Social Democratic Party adopted a line defending the Finnish sovereignty and democracy in line with the Agrarian League and other bourgeois political parties, finally leading to the expulsion of the Communists from the cabinet in 1948. However, it remained obvious that the Soviet Union was much more openly critical against SDP than against the "openly" bourgeois parties.

"Because of SDP's anti-communist activities, the United States Central Intelligence Agency supported the party by means of funds laundered through Nordic sister parties, or through organizations that bought "luxury goods" such as coffee abroad, then imported and sold them for a high profit, as post-war rationing served to inflate prices.

"In the presidential election of 1956, the SDP candidate Karl-August Fagerholm lost by only one electoral college vote to Urho Kekkonen. Fagerholm would act as a prime minister in 1956–1957 and in 1958–1959. The latter cabinet was forced to resign due to Soviet pressure, leading to a series of cabinets led by the Agrarian League. In 1958, due to the election of Väinö Tanner as party chairman, a faction of SDP resigned and formed the Alliance of Finnish Workers and Small Farmers (TPSL) around the former SDP chairman Emil Skog. The dispute was over several issues: should the party function as an interest group, and should it co-operate with the anti-communists and right-wingers, or with president Kekkonen, the Agrarians and the Communists. During the 1960s, the TPSL dwindled, its members returning little by little to the SDP or joining the Communists. The founder himself, Emil Skog, returned to SDP in 1965, and in 1970, TPSL lost its seats in the parliament.

"Only in 1966 was the SDP able to satisfy the Soviet Union about its friendly attitude towards her, and could thus return to the cabinet..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Finland

That hardly sounds to me like a party that would be willing to play second fiddle to the Communists in a coalition government...

 

[hwyl]

That hardly sounds to me like a party that would be willing to play second fiddle to the Communists in a coalition government...

Yeah, they were mortal enemies at the time with SDP often allying with the Conservatives (who shared their anti-Soviet attitudes) and the Communists with the Agrarians (led by Kekkonen who had an excellent relationship with the Soviet Union). A Communist led government would not have been possible without very heavy Soviet pressure (and probably clashes on streets) - and Moscow didn't want to destablize Finland as they anyway got their minimum requirements from friendly Kekkonen.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

Yeah, they were mortal enemies at the time with SDP often allying with the Conservatives (who shared their anti-Soviet attitudes) and the Communists with the Agrarians (led by Kekkonen who had an excellent relationship with the Soviet Union). A Communist led government would not have been possible without very heavy Soviet pressure (and probably clashes on streets) - and Moscow didn't want to destablize Finland as they anyway got their minimum requirements from friendly Kekkonen.

Well, the Agrarians had 48 seats as well, so a SKDL-Agrarian-TPSL would have had a majority.

 

[hwyl]

Well, the Agrarians had 48 seats as well, so a SKDL-Agrarian-TPSL would have had a majority.

Yeah, and Kekkonen was rather displeased about the new government (and did not support it during "the night frost crisis", but even he wouldn't have given the premiership to the Communists - and it had been by then established that the SKDL would not be included in governments. (This changed in the 60's when the Social Democrats realized that they had been badly outplayed by Kekkonen because of their absolute split with the SKDL/SKP.) In any case, it's quite impossible to see the Communists leading the government in 1958 without very serious Soviet pressure which was not on offer.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

Yeah, and Kekkonen was rather displeased about the new government (and did not support it during "the night frost crisis", but even he wouldn't have given the premiership to the Communists - and it had been by then established that the SKDL would not be included in governments. (This changed in the 60's when the Social Democrats realized that they had been badly outplayed by Kekkonen because of their absolute split with the SKDL/SKP.) In any case, it's quite impossible to see the Communists leading the government in 1958 without very serious Soviet pressure which was not on offer.

I see. Thank you very much to you and David T.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

First of all, the SKDL and the SDP really hated each other. So that kind of coalition would be near impossible.

Second, while the SKDL could be a minor coalition partner in a government, there was an agreement between the other Parties that they'd never be allowed to lead a government. Because obvious Soviet threat is obvious.

 

[Konrad Sartorius]

If they came to power and "invited" the Soviets across the border and established a Com. dictatorship then that would wreck all Euro-Commie movements in Europe. They wouldn't be capable of winning elections as people would fear a "Finlandization" of a different sort.