WI: Commiewank?

[Cyclone]

Okay, so I know it's wanky, but there's a reasonable chance of the various western powers going Communist (especially Germany and Italy). So let's suppose that revolutionary socialists of one stripe or another (whatever's most appropriate) take power throughout the Western world. France, Italy, Germany, Britain, Russia and a smattering of other, less important countries all go Red (maybe not Britain, if it's too implausible) more-or-less independently of each other at around the same time.

What are the consequences? Would this scenario make socialism more palatable in other countries, like Japan and the United States, or would it be viewed as extremely dangerous? How would a decent number of completely independent and industrialized socialist states interact? What would be the economic consequences? Outside the communist bloc, would they be more or less internationalist than the USSR historically was? etc.

 

[King Henry]

Okay, so I know it's wanky, but there's a reasonable chance of the various western powers going Communist (especially Germany and Italy). So let's suppose that revolutionary socialists of one stripe or another (whatever's most appropriate) take power throughout the Western world. France, Italy, Germany, Britain, Russia and a smattering of other, less important countries all go Red (maybe not Britain, if it's too implausible) more-or-less independently of each other at around the same time.

What are the consequences? Would this scenario make socialism more palatable in other countries, like Japan and the United States, or would it be viewed as extremely dangerous? How would a decent number of completely independent and industrialized socialist states interact? What would be the economic consequences? Outside the communist bloc, would they be more or less internationalist than the USSR historically was? etc.

Well, with roughly simultaneous revolutions, you're going to see a much less monolithic idea of "communism" simply because Lenin doesn't have the huge amount of prestige and influence needed for the 21 demands and stamping his version of Marxist theory on the world.

Getting Brittan to go far-left is extremely difficult, Spain could be acomplished relatively easily (just a republican-win civil war analogue which drags on long enough for them to consolidate their power-base through foreign support). In France..dunno, the mutinies near the end of WW1 get really out of hand? La Roque gains power and fails epically? With Germany, I believe there's a TL about a German Revolution if the KPD isn't crushed during Spartacus Week. and Once you have France, Russia and Germany most of Europe's pretty much indefensible anyway.

Another idea would be a late Central Powers victory WW1 where constant interventions securing the Eastern Puppets and crushing the Hungarians radicalize the German militarily and populace (moreso then OTL). Cue some humiliating crisis or scandal to light the powder-keg and you could get a commie Germany, or at least fairly far-left.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

this probably becomes a dystopia, the US starts making massive expenditures on defense, and McCarthyism isn't considered a bad thing after all. You'll probably see a marshall plan go into effect in Asia and probably South America in order to prevent communism from springing up on this side of the atlantic. Cuba has very little chance of going commie in this instance as the bay of pigs will either be heavily supported or completely replaced by an actual invasion by US troops in stead.

 

[King Henry]

this probably becomes a dystopia, the US starts making massive expenditures on defense, and McCarthyism isn't considered a bad thing after all. You'll probably see a marshall plan go into effect in Asia and probably South America in order to prevent communism from springing up on this side of the atlantic. Cuba has very little chance of going commie in this instance as the bay of pigs will either be heavily supported or completely replaced by an actual invasion by US troops in stead.

I'd say WW2 is butterflied completely, and there would be no way that the U.S lets Batista fall.

But yeah, you'd defiantly see a much more extreme Red Scare (and quite possibly, White Terror) as in the states without a revolution it will look to both sides like the "World Revolution" is inevitable, so the establishment will probably be much more repressive, and the local communists much more proactive.

 

[Minchandre]

this probably becomes a dystopia, the US starts making massive expenditures on defense, and McCarthyism isn't considered a bad thing after all. You'll probably see a marshall plan go into effect in Asia and probably South America in order to prevent communism from springing up on this side of the atlantic. Cuba has very little chance of going commie in this instance as the bay of pigs will either be heavily supported or completely replaced by an actual invasion by US troops in stead.

I bet the US would be going Red here, too, or at least suffers a civil war. IOTL, there was a lot of Communism running around in the interbellum years, amongst both the middle and working classes.

 

[Aranfan]

While an American Civil War is possible, Americans in general have a lot more faith in the ballot box than most other nations. I see the USA going red through the ballot box not through force of arms.

 

[King Henry]

I bet the US would be going Red here, too, or at least suffers a civil war. IOTL, there was a lot of Communism running around in the interbellum years, amongst both the middle and working classes.

I really don't think you're going to get a revolution in the US unless it starts there, the Officer Corps was too solidly loyal to the civilian authority at this point.

 

[karl2025]

If Germany goes communist, they're still going to have a lot of problems with France and Poland, as well as ideological conflict with their neighbors in central Europe. Perhaps a more forceful Anschluss (And a conflict with Italy over it?), and they will still want the Polish Corridor back. Probably will still want Alsace-Lorraine back too.

Of course France isn't going to want Germany militarizing either, and if Germany is more vocal over their intentions, then there could well be intervention in spite of the ideological similarities. Probably wouldn't intervene in a German-Italian war though. They would want both sides to just smash themselves.

The USSR may well support a joint Germany/Soviet partition of Poland, but if Germany doesn't fall into the Soviet orbit afterward, these two countries aren't going to be friends either.

...Hell, they'd probably all support different socialist factions in the Spanish Civil War (If/When it happens).

The UK will try to avoid falling down the Socialist pit Europe did and overcompensate the other direction. I don't think they'd turn fascist themselves, but supporting fascists and other nationalists (Nationalists in the Civil War?) isn't out of the question.

 

[King Henry]

If Germany goes communist, they're still going to have a lot of problems with France and Poland, as well as ideological conflict with their neighbors in central Europe. Perhaps a more forceful Anschluss (And a conflict with Italy over it?), and they will still want the Polish Corridor back. Probably will still want Alsace-Lorraine back too.

Of course France isn't going to want Germany militarizing either, and if Germany is more vocal over their intentions, then there could well be intervention in spite of the ideological similarities. Probably wouldn't intervene in a German-Italian war though. They would want both sides to just smash themselves.

The USSR may well support a joint Germany/Soviet partition of Poland, but if Germany doesn't fall into the Soviet orbit afterward, these two countries aren't going to be friends either.

...Hell, they'd probably all support different socialist factions in the Spanish Civil War (If/When it happens).

The UK will try to avoid falling down the Socialist pit Europe did and overcompensate the other direction. I don't think they'd turn fascist themselves, but supporting fascists and other nationalists (Nationalists in the Civil War?) isn't out of the question.

The Germans would probably support regaining the corridor and other disputed area's, with an independent Communist Poland having the rest (with Germany and Russia both competing for influence, they might even get some actual independence.

The KPD or SPD (who, with a successful revolution next door, have probably either radicalized or become socialist in name only) had some fairly large support (and militia's) in Austria IIRC.

So yeah, with a successful German Revolution shortly after Versailles, perhaps a second Polish-Soviet war, with Germany joining in as well? France would, of course, be in the middle of its own revolutionary convulsions and Brittan probably wouldn't intervene on its own.

a Italo-German War has the option to quickly turn into WW2 actually. Yugoslavia and some of the other reactionary/fascist regimes in SE europe might join in along with Brittan.

Say, might Japan jump into the war on the side of Brittan as an excuse to seize French Indochina?

 

[jkay]

It's hard to get violent revolution in long democracies. But it's not so unlikely to happen more other places.

You might, though, be able to get a more radical party in power in some democracies; it's rare, but it happens - see, IMHO, the Bush Admin after 9/12. Notice that communist parties will fail after a generation in power after it's noticed that communism just makes things worse. Communism can't feed the people and it just makes classism worse by substituting one, big, governmental hierarchy for capitalism's many hierarchies

 

[King Henry]

It's hard to get violent revolution in long democracies. But it's not so unlikely to happen more other places.

You might, though, be able to get a more radical party in power in some democracies; it's rare, but it happens - see, IMHO, the Bush Admin after 9/12. Notice that communist parties will fail after a generation in power after it's noticed that communism just makes things worse. Communism can't feed the people and it just makes classism worse by substituting one, big, governmental hierarchy for capitalism's many hierarchies

Is classism even a word? Regardless, I'd argue that your point has more to due with Marxist-Leninism (specifically, the blanquist and oligarchic doctrine of a "revolutionary vanguard") then Communism (as in, the idea that the economic policies of the Gilded age will continue until the Bourgeoisie states are over-thrown by a mass of Paris-Commune style rebellions). Even if they just create an oppressive oligarchy, its not like repressive dictatorships can't last more then a generation.

 

[Cyclone]

It's hard to get violent revolution in long democracies. But it's not so unlikely to happen more other places.

You might, though, be able to get a more radical party in power in some democracies; it's rare, but it happens - see, IMHO, the Bush Admin after 9/12. Notice that communist parties will fail after a generation in power after it's noticed that communism just makes things worse. Communism can't feed the people and it just makes classism worse by substituting one, big, governmental hierarchy for capitalism's many hierarchies

Communism is pretty much just revolutionary socialism, and revolutionary socialism and state capitalism are two very different things. While the USSR associated the two (not even for its whole lifespan, e.g. NEP), its unlikely that all the other nations would follow, especially since the USSR is not going to be the premier socialist power in this scenario (it's going to effectively take up Russia's seat, which is not great).

 

[King Henry]

Communism is pretty much just revolutionary socialism, and revolutionary socialism and state capitalism are two very different things. While the USSR associated the two (not even for its whole lifespan, e.g. NEP), its unlikely that all the other nations would follow, especially since the USSR is not going to be the premier socialist power in this scenario (it's going to effectively take up Russia's seat, which is not great).

indeed, my guesses for a "Europe-Wide" Communist system would have influence ranking going something like

1. Germany
2. France/Russia
3. Poland (if independant)/ Yugoslavia (if united and communist)
4. Benelux, other Balkans, Spain.

 

[Minchandre]

I really don't think you're going to get a revolution in the US unless it starts there, the Officer Corps was too solidly loyal to the civilian authority at this point.

I didn't mean a military dictatorship.

My thoughts are along these lines: heavily unionized workers (particularly in the Midwest) become increasingly socialistic; in response, the government passes law after law curbing unions. When the Communist-sympathizing members of the middle class get involved and start organizing and agitating, we get a series of large riots arising in Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, etc. which quickly metastasize into a distressingly large and concerted Communist movement. This probably doesn't help Communism's image among the elite, but I bet they get a lot of listeners amongst the farmers in the Dust Bowl.

I like this whole thread: if communism is implemented in nation that isn't fucked in the first place, will it work?

 

[karl2025]

The Germans would probably support regaining the corridor and other disputed area's, with an independent Communist Poland having the rest (with Germany and Russia both competing for influence, they might even get some actual independence.

I don't think the Soviets would want an independent Poland. Communist Germany in the 1920's is going to have a bit of a difficult time against Poland one on one (OTL Germany had 20 years to rearm and surround Poland). Germany can jump in while Poland is busy with the Soviets, but then they're going to run into the partition issue. An independent Poland doesn't seem likely.

And even with France in revolution and the UK weakened, the memory of WW1 is still too fresh for them to just let Germany ignore the Versailles Treaty.

A Italo-German War has the option to quickly turn into WW2 actually. Yugoslavia and some of the other reactionary/fascist regimes in SE europe might join in along with Brittan.

Say, might Japan jump into the war on the side of Brittan as an excuse to seize French Indochina?

I can't imagine France helping Germany against Italy. What do they have to gain? Why help their old enemy? Especially when Germany is acting to take lands inhabited by Germans (Like Alsace-Lorraine was).

Just because they're ideologically similar doesn't mean they'll help each other out come hell or high water. Remember the Sino-Soviet split.