WI: Columbus had found nobody in the Bahamas and returned to Spain without any contact with Native Americans

[Mario]

The Lucayans living in San Salavador and other parts of Bahamas had allegedly colonized these islands just 200-250 years prior to the arrival of Columbus, migrating from the Turks & Caicos, and probably from Hispaniola earlier than that.

Let's consider a scenario where the Lucayans, by some reason, did not migrate north of Turks & Caicos and when Columbus had arrived to San Salvador and neighbouring islands had found nobody, so he had returned to Europe without setting any contact with Native American population. What would have happened next? Would he had returned anyway in order to explore further or rather he would have found to explore that area 'unworthy' as he would have found just empty, uninteresting islands? (Remind that the Lucayans talked about the existence of gold and wealth in other islands and also in Cuba, and this obviously stimulated further exploration).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

He'd continue his first voyage, excepting, that "Asian" mainland is close.

 

[Mario]

He'd continue his first voyage, excepting, that "Asian" mainland is close.

Which could have be the point of continuing his first voyage if there is nothing interesting to find out?

IOTL the Lucayans told Columbus about, more or less, what he could find in the nearby and, key point, about the possibility of finding gold and wealth. They also indicated him the way to Cuba. If the Columbus' expedition had found nobody in San Salvador, they had might explored the neighbouring islands but, if by chance they do not sail southwards and only explored the other northern Bahamian islands (which were already less populated IOTL, so ITTL would be not populated at all), maybe they could figure that there are only 'uninteresting empty islands in the middle of the Ocean' and sail back to Europe after collecting some goods for the trip back home. I don't think that at this point Columbus had pushed for sailing further west to find 'Asia', as the expedition would have been quite exhausted to do so.

I don't know how the Spanish and other powers would receive the news about the existence of 'empty islands' and no sign of 'Asia'. Probably they would try another route at some point, but I think the boost of the Age of Exploration could be delayed in such scenario.

 

[Lusitania]

There are two scenarios, first the fact that Columbus has found land indicates that you don’t fall off the earth so there be incentive to launch a second expedition to determine how far Asia from these islands.

Second the Spanish hold off a few years then when news of Vasco da Gama reaching India in 1498 there be renewed interest in dusting off those charts from Columbus snd trying again.

 

[Arkenfolm]

He wouldn't need to go far to reach Florida, which he might conclude is an island or might find it to be a continent in its own right. This would be his natural target on his next expeditions, assuming they happen.

 

[stevej713]

I don't think that at this point Columbus had pushed for sailing further west to find 'Asia', as the expedition would have been quite exhausted to do so.

Is there a source that shows Columbus and his men were exhausted and were getting ready to turn around? Remember that the men on these expeditions were fortune seekers, not just explorers. Turning back after seeing one deserted island and not further exploring the area would be pretty foolish.

 

[Mario]

There are two scenarios, first the fact that Columbus has found land indicates that you don’t fall off the earth so there be incentive to launch a second expedition to determine how far Asia from these islands.

Second the Spanish hold off a few years then when news of Vasco da Gama reaching India in 1498 there be renewed interest in dusting off those charts from Columbus snd trying again.

There would be new expeditions for sure, but as you say, they could be probably delayed up to a whole decade, after the Portuguese reached India.

He wouldn't need to go far to reach Florida, which he might conclude is an island or might find it to be a continent in its own right. This would be his natural target on his next expeditions, assuming they happen.

Even if they would eventually reach Florida (it is not far from the Bahamas, but it is not sure that they would sail in the right direction), it is not clear that they might identify the swampy coastline of Florida as 'mainland' or just another larger island belonging to the same archipelago. And it is likely that they would not contact anybody either, as coastal swamps were not very populated IOTL.

Is there a source that shows Columbus and his men were exhausted and were getting ready to turn around? Remember that the men on these expeditions were fortune seekers, not just explorers. Turning back after seeing one deserted island and not further exploring the area would be pretty foolish.

They were fortune seekers but if they do not find anybody, it is hard for them to look after any wealth. They might try other neighbouring islands, but excepting the southern islands, the others were islands that remained uninhabited until a couple of centuries before Columbus, so if ITTL keep this scenario for longer time, after exploring 4-5 islands without finding anybody I guess they might think that there would be unworthy to keep exploring that region. In that case, it would be smarter to collect provision for the voyage back home and try a different route to 'mainland Asia' another year.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Even if they would eventually reach Florida (it is not far from the Bahamas, but it is not sure that they would sail in the right direction), it is not clear that they might identify the swampy coastline of Florida as 'mainland' or just another larger island belonging to the same archipelago. And it is likely that they would not contact anybody either, as coastal swamps were not very populated IOTL.

Florida in 1492 was populous enough that like the rest of the Southeast it had a huge internal diversity of different peoples and languages. Those coastal swamps are fairly rich in food sources which supported a large, mostly sedentary population that didn't need to rely on agriculture (although a few groups did). Evidently around 350,000 people lived in the area of the modern state at the time. Most areas of coastal Florida home to large settlements now were also home to sizable villages and towns then. Trading networks in the area were pretty sophisticated too so odds are they'd know of gold, especially the further north Columbus visits.

 

[Mario]

Florida in 1492 was populous enough that like the rest of the Southeast it had a huge internal diversity of different peoples and languages. Those coastal swamps are fairly rich in food sources which supported a large, mostly sedentary population that didn't need to rely on agriculture (although a few groups did). Evidently around 350,000 people lived in the area of the modern state at the time. Most areas of coastal Florida home to large settlements now were also home to sizable villages and towns then. Trading networks in the area were pretty sophisticated too so odds are they'd know of gold, especially the further north Columbus visits.

This might be considered 'populous' in the context of Native American population of the time, but from an overall perspective it was blatantly not.

These people did not build big structures easy to spot from far distances like the Maya or the Aztecs, and the Floridan coast of the time was quite crowded with mangrove, so unless Columbus and his men did venture behind the mangrove lines, they would have not realized that some people lived there (if they were lucky to do so in the vicinity of a settlement). OK there was a fair chance, but odds are not high enough. We have also to consider that they would probably not venture into the Floridan mainland unless they suspected they could find anything worthy (i.e. any sign of civilization). Of course, they might stop for searching for supplies, but then any eventual contact with anybody would depend mostly on luck.

 

[Lusitania]

I mean the best way for Columbus not to find any human tribes is that turtledove “different flesh” premise that humans never cross the Bering straight. So Columbus lands in Florida and he is attacked by saber tooth tiger.

 

[Arkenfolm]

This might be considered 'populous' in the context of Native American population of the time, but from an overall perspective it was blatantly not.

These people did not build big structures easy to spot from far distances like the Maya or the Aztecs, and the Floridan coast of the time was quite crowded with mangrove, so unless Columbus and his men did venture behind the mangrove lines, they would have not realized that some people lived there (if they were lucky to do so in the vicinity of a settlement). OK there was a fair chance, but odds are not high enough. We have also to consider that they would probably not venture into the Floridan mainland unless they suspected they could find anything worthy (i.e. any sign of civilization). Of course, they might stop for searching for supplies, but then any eventual contact with anybody would depend mostly on luck.

I doubt your average Tequesta or Ays village or town would be too different than a Lucayan village or town. Even a short stay in a protected inlet or an area by a river would show Columbus signs of people living there since fishing and beachcombing provided the basis of their economy. If they try and gather water or local foods, they'll easily find a local.

 

[funnyhat]

If Columbus had realized that he had landed in a "new world" and found nothing there, possibly that would have been all, but he believed he had reached Asia. It was known that Asia contained spices and other valuable goods, so any discovery of land would have led to more exploration. In his mind he had proven that one could reach Asia by sailing west.

 

[Mario]

If Columbus had realized that he had landed in a "new world" and found nothing there, possibly that would have been all, but he believed he had reached Asia. It was known that Asia contained spices and other valuable goods, so any discovery of land would have led to more exploration. In his mind he had proven that one could reach Asia by sailing west.

This is not that easy.

Columbus, as well as many other European sailors of his time, believed in the existence of (later proved inexistent) islands in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean like Antilia, Hy-Brasil, Satanazes etc. Why he could prove (to himself and to others) that the Bahamas were not these kind of hypothetical islands? He ignored how could they look and how could be different from Eastern Asia, as he never visited that remote part of the world.

In the best case, he could think he might be 'close to mainland Asia', but as the real size of the Earth was still ignored, he could not be sure. In an 'empty Bahamas' scenario he could try two options:

- Assume he might be close to 'mainland Asia' and decide to sail further west. In that case he might find Florida or Cuba or just wandering around. This is not an easy decision, as the crew of the expedition would ask for a clear target or either demand to sail back home if they can't envision that the voyage could lead to something worthy.

- Assume that those islands are not Asia and maybe just empty islands in the middle of the Ocean, like those hypothetical ones. In that case, they would surely decide to sail back home and try another route in the future.

 

[Mario]

I doubt your average Tequesta or Ays village or town would be too different than a Lucayan village or town. Even a short stay in a protected inlet or an area by a river would show Columbus signs of people living there since fishing and beachcombing provided the basis of their economy. If they try and gather water or local foods, they'll easily find a local.

The difference is that Lucayans lived on flat islands with open beaches and there they were easier to spot. Most of Floridan coast (unless he would sail north enough) was protected by mangrove forest, so this required that Columbus' expedition should venture behind the magrove lines in order to find anybody; of course it could happen if they stopped for supplies (like fresh water) but finding a local would have been not that easy: take also in mind that mainland tribes were not as naïve that Lucayans and many distrusted strangers and hide from them (or attacked them, depending on the context).

 

[Mario]

- Assume that those islands are not Asia and maybe just empty islands in the middle of the Ocean, like those hypothetical ones. In that case, they would surely decide to sail back home and try another route in the future.

I forgot to add here that during the second half of the 15th century, some of the people who supported the Columbus' ideas regarding the eventual western route to Asia like i.e. Paolo Toscanelli, already stated that then-believed-real phantom islands like Antilia could be used as good stopovers por such journeys, so it's highly likely that Columbus already considered the possibility of finding such middle-Oceanic islands en route to 'Asia'.