WI: Columbus falls off the map

[Amedras]

The Columbus voyage was a pretty marginal thing. The Europeans had a decent idea of how big the world was, and Columbus hugely underestimated the distance to Asia (which is where secret-map theories come from); Isabella was willing to finance the expedition mostly because the long-shot payoff (a westward Indian trade route) was hugely bigger than the worst possible loss (three ships and a crew press-ganged from jails.)

So what happens if the Columbus voyage leaves the Canary Islands on September 6, never to be seen again?

The first major consequences I can think of are the Thirty Years' War going very differently (Spain can't afford to be a contender by the end...) In the longer term, Europe's population stays much lower without New World crops (and the Portuguese pepper trade is profitable longer, because chilli doesn't get transplanted to Europe.)

Tossing this out here because you collectively can guess at more butterflies than I can.

 

[Tsochar]

The portuguese were well on their way making westward discoveries. They had discovered the Sargasso sea and mapped much of the northern atlantic before Columbus's journey. I imagine that not long after 1500 (possibly before), they would have sighted Nova Scotia or Newfoundland.
The Spanish ended up with most of the new world after having discovered it first; I imagine that Portugal would be much more successful in that endeavor.

 

[Umbral]

Some mesoamerican nations may have done somewhat better. Europeans would have come from the north and south, rather than starting off with unassailable bases in the Carribbean.

Many Indian nations would have heard about the Europeans before meeting them. Less chance of getting involved in local prophecies for Europeans.

Most importantly, the initial diasease-shock would travel ahead of the Europeans, and some nations like the Inka may have burned through the worst shock by the time they encounter the Europeans.

 

[Swan Station]

The portuguese were well on their way making westward discoveries. They had discovered the Sargasso sea and mapped much of the northern atlantic before Columbus's journey. I imagine that not long after 1500 (possibly before), they would have sighted Nova Scotia or Newfoundland.
The Spanish ended up with most of the new world after having discovered it first; I imagine that Portugal would be much more successful in that endeavor.

All they have to do is sail out of the Azores or West Africa, and let the trade winds blow them west, and they've found the Caribbean. It's not too difficult for them to get to Brazil if they veer a little too far away from the African coast while heading around the horn.

If the Basque or some other fishermen hadn't discovered the Grand Banks yet in 1492, they probably will soon, and its not far from there to using Newfoundland as a watering point. They won't be able to hold it secret forever, and eventually some king will want to send someone over there and claim the land for their own fishermen to use.

What might be interesting is that it turns out that no one is actually seen as the 'discoverer' of the New World. Just a bunch of anonymous sailors finding a bunch of islands -- until some explorer is sent out to chart the islands, perhaps negotiating with the natives, and finds out it's much more than that.

 

[RGB]

Most importantly, the initial diasease-shock would travel ahead of the Europeans, and some nations like the Inka may have burned through the worst shock by the time they encounter the Europeans.

The shock may be reduced but the disease will be just as deadly, and the practices for dealing with it just as maladapted. It took Europe long, long centuries of continuous exposure to reduce smallpox mortality to Columbian-contact era levels, and 19th c. nations in North America still had 40-90% mortality rates prety reliably.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The Portuguese may have already sighted Brazil, fishermen were apparently visiting the Grand Banks and John Cabot would return to England a few months later announcing that he had discovered land.


Reminds me of Dave Barry's version of history, particularly the part in October 1492 where Colombus and his three ships sail off the edge of the world...the ships being the Nina, the Pinto and the Santa Fe.

 

[DuQuense]

All they have to do is sail out of the Azores or West Africa, and let the trade winds blow them west, and they've found the Caribbean. It's not too difficult for them to get to Brazil if they veer a little too far away from the African coast while heading around the horn.

Most of the Navigator Families of Portugal/Spain/Italy knew there was land west of Azores, and most belied it to more Islands, so had no reason to explore. [no Profit]
But the discovery would come within 2~3 Decades anyway.

But-- delaying the Contact with MezoAmerica 20~40 years, Puts different groups of People in Charge- on Both Sides.
Whe can only Guess at the Butterflies.

My main Butterfly is - what happens to the Conquesdores/Young Men-Settlers that went into the Caribbean in the 1495~1520 time frame.
My guess is they join the Morocco Expeditions, Coquesidores in the Military, the Youngmen as Christian Settlers in NAfrica. As Spain continues the Reconquestia.

 

[January First-of-May]

John Cabot discovers it first, presumably.
Not sure what butterflies can result from this. Larger British/English empire?
Also, when exactly was Tordesillas (or Inter caetera or whatever) again? Because Cabral might well discover Brazil ITTL too - IOTL he got there by trying to get past Africa quicker, and that might even be earlier ITTL.

As for Columbus, I've heard somewhere that "it's the same distance from Barbados to Veracruz as from Africa to Barbados". This might mean Columbus failing is not so unlikely after all...