WI Colombia-Venezuelan War?

In 2008 of course. The Colombian military is larger, better-equipped, better-trained. So what would happen, and what would the final results be?
 

Skokie

Banned
Lasts a couple hours at most. The US is the unquestioned hegemon in this part of the world, Chávez or no Chávez. We'd never want to see open conflict in our hemisphere, especially not in two of the larger and more economically-important nations on the other side of the Caribbean pond. A couple phonecalls from Washington to Caracas and Bogotá would end it. To be followed by big, sappy reconciliation concerts and telethons including telenovela stars, pop stars, beauty queens and lots and lots of dancing.
 
Not so sure about that. What if Venezuela decided to more actively work with Iran, or decided to slap an oil embargo on shipments to the US? Yes, that move would cripple their economy, as the type of oil produced in Venezuela can, as far as I know, almost exclusively only be processed in US Gulf Coast refineries, but under Chavez, Venezuela has been more concerned with growing Socialism and opposing US interests than acting in their own best economic interest.

If, in this situation, there was a spark of some sort, I could easily see the US giving tacit support (intelligence, logistics/supply, diplomatic support, etc.) to Colombia.
 
I can't imagine this war being good for either nation, and if this becomes an ugly quagmire, which seems likely considering the terrain and Columbia's experience therein, then Hugo's in trouble come ballot-time. Assuming Venezuela's still actually a democracy.
 
There were grumblings of a possible coup a few years after the 2002 attempt, but no real signs of US support for it. Worries about loss of the oil supply and the realization that, despite the blusters of propaganda, Chavez was not about to nationalize foreign oil holdings, only wanting better royalties.

So for all the same reasons, the US would probably urge Uribe to back off quickly after his initial strike.

The incident might have a brief effect on the US elections. No doubt GOP supporters would try to portray this as showing the need for a strong leader. But with the economy declining, there's still little chance McCain could win.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
There were grumblings of a possible coup a few years after the 2002 attempt, but no real signs of US support for it. Worries about loss of the oil supply and the realization that, despite the blusters of propaganda, Chavez was not about to nationalize foreign oil holdings, only wanting better royalties.

So for all the same reasons, the US would probably urge Uribe to back off quickly after his initial strike.

The incident might have a brief effect on the US elections. No doubt GOP supporters would try to portray this as showing the need for a strong leader. But with the economy declining, there's still little chance McCain could win.

Well, then that's about the best thing I could think of: Chavez somehow decides that going uber-Castro is the best thing to do and nationalizes the foreign stuff in his country just like Castro did with United Fruit.

Now you've got Dole Bananas wanting Castro dead and BP wanting Chavez.
 
Top