WI: Colin Powell runs for President?

What if Powell makes a run for the Republican nomination in 2000, and wins the nomination?
Does Powell win the General Election?
Are Maryland, Michigan, or other states with high African-American populations possibly in play for the Powell camp?
 
Something in me doubts he could win the nomination... best case scenario is he replaces John McCain as the more moderate second runner up to Bush.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
in 2000, he could have won the presidency. In 2008, after the failed Iraq fiasco, he could not have won the presidency. I doubt any republican could have won with a poorly executed war and the worst economy in two generations.
 
Something in me doubts he could win the nomination... best case scenario is he replaces John McCain as the more moderate second runner up to Bush.

I agree with this. HOWEVER, here's another take on events:

Colin Powell runs for the Republican nomination in 2000. He is entangled with Governor Bush in a very difficult primary battle, in which Bush overwhelmingly wins Iowa, but is then routed by a solid Powell win in New Hampshire, and then wins a landslide victory in South Carolina, and at the end of the primaries, Powell withdraws and endorses Bush. Probably early in the primary race, Senator McCain withdraws and endorses Powell, and that's probably the last anyone will ever hear of John McCain in presidential politics.

However, Powell is aware of the tradition that the Republicans nominate for President every election the runner-up from the last election. Privately concerned with the ultra-conservative direction of President Bush, Powell probably doesn't accept the position of Secretary of State in the Bush administration (though he might, as he was very genuinely patriotic and nonpartisan) and instead opts to work privately to prepare for a 2008 presidential bid. So when 2008 comes around, Powell runs again, and with a more moderate GOP, Powell wins the nomination.

Of course, that leads to a very interesting general election. Sure, butterflies might lead to a Hillary Clinton nomination, but there's still a good chance Obama could be nominated. Two African Americans running against each other at the same time? Epicness.:D

From there, I can't say who wins. I'm inclined to say Powell, as long as he stays as a moderate, as he likely would; however, 2008 was a very Democratic year, so I wouldn't rule out an Obama win either. Whoever is elected however, it will be a very close election, maybe even like 2000.

I suppose this isn't the MOST plausible scenario. A few problems I can think of:

* Powell staying out of the Bush administration; Bush would still likely want Powell as SecState, and Powell was always very nonpartisan and could very well have put aside all his political ambitions and decided to serve his nation inside the administration. But I still don't think this is a 100% guarantee; after a close 2000 run, Powell might decide to try again in 2008, and he would know well in advance that joining Bush as SecState would be a bad decision.
* I suppose it isn't even a guarantee that Powell would win the nomination in 2008. True, he would try spending the eight Bush years trying to bring the GOP to the center, but he would be fighting President Bush in this. I'm not sure if Powell could be entirely successful in bringing the GOP to the center with the GOP feeling obliged to support right-wing President Bush in all his actions.
 
Yes, Powell wins the election. I would expect him to take South Carolina (it's a very different field there with an African-American soldier running, even if he is a moderate), the nomination, and the general, probably by a much clearer margin than Bush did. I bet he'd take Bush as a running mate - the man who took second place in the primary, to unify the party, and from the useful state of Texas, after all.

There would be no Iraq invasion under President Powell. Afghanistan, yes. I can't imagine him being a one-termer. So Dubya may be a plausible contender in 2008 (or maybe not).
 
Is it possible that a non-SecState Powell challenges Bush in the Republican primaries in 2004 if, say, Iraq was going even worse and Greenspan had decided on a different monetary policy, restricting the growth of the housing market and thus the economy?
 
Powell's views on abortion are a serious handicap in winning the Republican nomination. One big question is what kind of political skills does Je have?
 
Another problem with Powell is his disinterest in elected politics. I think his wife in particular was against him seeking the nomination because he'd be an obvious targgit for an asassin.
Lets say though that Bush pushes an even more conservative message in the 2000 election and turns off a few more moderates than OTL, losing the election in the process.
President Gore's inicial reaction to 9/11 is popular amongst the US public, to the extent that it carries him to an election victory against another GOP conservative.
By the end of his second term though, Gore's support is waring thin.
The republicans aren't sure who to pick in 2008, but early favourite John Mccain shockingly announces he will not be seeking the nomination.
After a long primary battle, Powell (who was persuaded to run in the interveening 8 years) eventually emerges victorious. Most of the GOP establishment believe that Powell is the most popular candidate with the general public, his miletory experience being a huge boost for his campaign. Furthermore, they're eager to win back the Whitehouse after 16 years of continuous democratic rule and most GOP members reluctantly believe that the 2000 and 2004 elections were lost partly because of the far-write message from the candidates and that a respected moderate at the top of the tickit and a conservative at the tale is the best chance in November.
They therefore fall behind Powell, much as they had done for Dwight D. Eisenhower 56 years previously.
From there, President Powell is pretty much asured, but as I said getting him nominated (and getting him to accept) are the tricky obsticles here.
 
IIRC Powell was 72 in 2008. That
I think is too old for a serious candidate for president.I don't consider Ron Paul a serious candidate.
 
2000 Election

POD: George Bush is assassinated in 1999

Colin Powell/John McCain 52.12%
Al Gore Joe Liberman 46.13%
Ralph Nader/ Wionia Li Duke 2.23%

"On a wave of Patriotism four star general Collin Powell became the first black president in last night's election in a clear swing to the Republicans."

Dan Rather CBS News

I think ill make this a T.L

 
In 2000, Powell could win the NH and SC Primaries (possibly even Iowa), from there the nomination, and from there the Presidency. Only one thing stops all this from happening -- his decision not to run in the first place. And, UIAM, the primary reason behind that decision was his wife.

So for the PoD...?
 
In 2000, Powell could win the NH and SC Primaries (possibly even Iowa), from there the nomination, and from there the Presidency. Only one thing stops all this from happening -- his decision not to run in the first place. And, UIAM, the primary reason behind that decision was his wife.

So for the PoD...?

George Bush assassination might be an encouragement for Powell to run
 

gridlocked

Banned
Yes.

Although his real year was 1996. That is the year that people were urging him to run. He would have likely beat Dole for the nomination. He could have likely, but not definitely won the Presidency against Clinton.

In 2000, after 8 years the people were tired of the Clintons and Gore was seen as a wooden candidate. Here I think his chances of taking the nomination are about 50/50. However, if he took the nomination he would be President. By 2004 and 2008 he was getting a little old for someone who never had the fire in the belly to be a politician in the first place.
 

Jasen777

Donor
Although his real year was 1996. That is the year that people were urging him to run. He would have likely beat Dole for the nomination. He could have likely, but not definitely won the Presidency against Clinton.

'96 is his year, but beating Dole in the primaries would be extremely difficult.
 
Are Maryland, Michigan, or other states with high African-American populations possibly in play for the Powell camp?

Even though Powell was black, I don't think most black registered Democrats would've voted for a black Republican candidate, in 1996, 2000 or 2004.
 
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