WI: Colin Powell 2000?

Hunter W.

Banned
Would he be a good President? and how will issues such as terrorism and the 2008 housing collapse manifest during his Presidency?
 
He has always been a little vague on his politics. Based on his endorsement of Obama I assume he would have been a liberal to moderate Republican. If elected in 2000, 9/11 is on his watch. I imagine he invades Afghanistan but not Iraq. I would hope he would raise taxes to pay for the war unlike OTL. Socially moderate, would not support same sex marriage but few did at that time. Only gets to 2008 housing collapse if re-elected in 2004 which if the economy is strong he would be. Probably supports the bailouts
 

missouribob

Banned
He'd be a competent President. The problem with Powell is that he is so moderate. Anyway let's assume the butterfly flapped their wings and he won in 2000. Assuming no major butterflies like no Katrina or no 2008 economic crisis...
9/11 Response: You still get a War on Terror, although I'm not sure he would call it that, and an invasion of Afghanistan. No Iraq, but I bet he sends a larger footprint for Afghanistan down the road. [1][2][3] Powell doesn't like nation-building though so I bet you would see a reluctant but increasing amount of troops sent to the place in his second term. No Gitmo or any of that Rumsfeldian/Cheney style crap in this ATL either. Let's say we still don't get Osama in 01.

Really the biggest changes would come from not taking the eye off the prize in Afghanistan and otherwise just maintaining America's place in the world. Powell is somewhat of a dove so you aren't likely to see something like an invasion of North Korea or anything like that. I also think he'd sidestep the Iranian nuclear issue like GWB did based on his record.


[4] Domestic: Powell is a moderate. You're likely to see tax cuts but not as big but those tax cuts might be tied in with tax incentives for small business or something similar. He'll probably focus on reforming American education too with a focus on school choice. Without the U.S. government wasting time on Iraq you might even get proper Social Security reform that's not too bad for all involved.

The real differences will start popping up in 2005. This ATL's Katrina won't be as bad if Powell refrains from installing incompetents to the head of FEMA like OTL and since the U.S. military isn't stretched to the brink you can see a quicker federal response. [3][4] Katrina will still be a shit show but the President won't seem as aloof.

The 2008 recession and I'm not an economist so I can't get into the weeds but if I had to take a guess without the Iraq War I think the bubble would collapse a bit quicker. A. Because their would be less veterans with access to VA loans to prop up the market longer. B. Less deficit spending sucking capital out of the markets which means more for the civilian economy...which means even more easy credit going to housing. Basically the bubble still pops but maybe a bit earlier.

Now IDK what Powell's views on economics are and I couldn't find anything either, so let's just assume he can manage to be as competent as Bush in responding until his term is up. The bubble bursting on his watch would be a sour ending to an otherwise good Presidency and would lead to the Democrats taking the White House in 2008 more than likely.

The real wild-card in all of this is that Powell is Black. When you look at his views on race it is clear he understands his race and how race plays into American life. I truly think Powell could lead to a realignment of American political parties by being the first black President in 2000 while being competent and not corrupt. Who knows what the Democrats or Republican roster looks like by 2008? Would Obama still even be competitive considering a lot of the novelty would be gone? For that matter the left wouldn't be as strong because there would be no Iraq or Bush overreach. It's hard to say what the 2008 elections look like if Powell permanently moves say 30 or 40 percent of the black vote to the Republican Party.

References:
[1]http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/colin-powell-u-n-speech-was-a-great-intelligence-failure/
[2]http://www.chron.com/news/article/Troop-level-in-Iraq-criticized-by-Powell-1928595.php
[3]http://www.cbsnews.com/news/powell-i-wanted-more-troops-in-iraq/
[4]http://www.ontheissues.org/Colin_Powell.htm
[5]http://whowhatwhy.org/2015/08/24/corruption-and-contempt-the-hidden-story-of-hurricane-katrina/
[6]http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...stage_for_the_hurricane_katrina_disaster.html
 
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