WI Cold War effects of Axis France

Eurofed

Banned
Let's assume that ITTL Vichy France joins the Axis after Mers-el-Kabir, and there is no Free France, because De Gaulle dies during the German invasion of France. The Allies come to regard and treat Vichy France just like Fascist Italy.

Of course, this means no French UNSC permaseat or occupation zone in Germany, with Canada taking the place of France in both.

As for WWII butterflies, I'd tentatively propose for the sake of the scenario that this ultimately turns out in Allied armies still somewhere in Poland and France in August '45, and Germany being forced into surrender by 2-3 nukes.

Main consequences, no Soviet occupation zone in Austria, Soviet occupation zone in Germany made up by Pomerania and Silesia, Poland only getting East Prussia with Soviet basing rights, Iron Curtain on the Oder-Neisse, Austria and Czechia staying in the Western bloc, Slovakia an independent Soviet satellite. A communist Korea, perhaps a communist Hokkaido.

What consequences the different stance of France would have on the Cold War, especially as it concerns:

NATO (no French nuclear deterrent, no French partial withdrawal) ?

European Integration (would it be fostered or hindered, with France in the same boat with *West Germany and Italy) ?

The French colonial empire (I assume it would be quickly dismantled, like the Italian one; this creates serious butterflies about Indochina) ?

I assume France would most likely stay a parliamentary republic.
 
France would lose most of it empire, but I don't think all of it.

France would probably lose its Pacific and Caribbean possessions and all would become American mandates. Some might join the United States, similar to the OTL Northern Mariana Islands, but most will opt for independence while joining a Compact of Free Association with the United States. Canada would annex St. Pierre and Miquelon.

Truman would support Ho Chi Mihn, saving the U.S. from a disasterous war in Vietnam. Indochina will definitely be free.

France's African holdings, however, are just too big to be given independence immediately, so France will probably keep those. Britain will lobby heavily for France to at least keep these so Britain can try to hold onto its vast holding as well. Britain will give back Madagascar and the Indian Ocean islands back to France just like OTL.
 

Eurofed

Banned
France's African holdings are just too big to be given independence immediately, so France will probably keep those. Britain will lobby heavily for France to at least keep these so Britain can try to hold onto its vast holding as well. Britain will give back Madagascar and the Indian Ocean islands back to France just like OTL.

I was thinking that at least some French colonies would become British mandates, if they can't be given independence soon for whatever reason. It is reasonable that France be given back some colonies (Italy did get Somalia this way) but as UN mandates, not colonies in full right.
 

Typo

Banned
I don't think Canada would get a zone or UNSC, it's still not a great power, which on the long run is a good idea since France on the UNSC never made sense anyway.

With an Axis France, France ends up like Italy in reverse, an ally turned enemy, and would get Allied Military Occupation authority put in place. Which means Du gaulle isn't going to be as prominent as OTL. That butterflies away the fifth Republic at least, assuming there isn't really any Algeria to fight over anyway, and the Allies does a good job defanging post-war French militarism.

The North African parts of the Empire is probably gone, Libya was for Italy despite ending the war on the right side, and any part occupied by the allies probably gets independence after a few years on the same model as Libya. I don't really see why France would get to keep them and I don't see why anyone else would want them, and UN mandates probably brings up too many bad memories about the League of Nations.

Indochina probably gets independence at least, the need for French cooperation in Europe was one of the major reasons why the US let them keep it as long as it did, and this won't be an issue ATL, so presumably after the messy immediate post war situation it (hopefully) gets independent under Ho's nationalist regime. If Ho sees the US in a better light as a giver of independence, he probably never drifts into the Moscow camp. An US aligned Vietnam on Communist China's border is going to be interesting.

The Caribbean is probably gone too, the key here is how much the Free French existed in this scenario and what role they played, you might very well see the colonies which declared for TTL's Free French staying French. But the rest of Africa might stay French for a while anyway.

Things won't change greatly in the Soviet camp, unless you can somehow butterfly out Communist China, but that's pretty unlikely by 1945. The KMT was too weakened by the war, and the CCP grew too strong.

I don't see how this would effect European integration a great deal, the fundamental economic and political factors are still there. It's not like Italy was greatly effected by being in the Axis.
 
Last edited:

Eurofed

Banned
With an Axis France, France ends up like Italy in reverse, an ally turned enemy, and would get Allied Military Occupation authority put in place. Which means Du gaulle isn't going to be as prominent as OTL. That butterflies away the fifth Republic at least, assuming there isn't really any Algeria to fight over anyway, and the Allies does a good job defanging post-war French militarism.

Part of the PoD is that De Gaulle dies in 1940, so there is no Free France as we know it. Although the domestic Resistance shall eventually rise to prominence and be the nucleus of an antifascist government under the aegis of the AMO, it shall be by means akin to Italy, i.e. when the Allies set foot on French soil (honestly dunno whether ITTL Petain and Laval would try to switch sides; IOTL, they did not).

I don't see how this would effect European integration a great deal, the fundamental economic and political factors are still there. It's not like Italy was greatly effected by being in the Axis.

Basic idea here is that a post-Axis France shall accept the European Defense/Political Community and jumpstart security/political integration of Western Europe in parallel to the economic one with the EEC.
 
Last edited:
Petain would be stupid to enter openly in an alliance with Hitler peoples will start uprising and be bloodily put down. That won't a pretty sight.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Petain would be stupid to enter openly in an alliance with Hitler peoples will start uprising and be bloodily put down. That won't a pretty sight.

The popularity of Vichy France is often grossly understimated in this forum. It was a homebrewn fascist regime with a genuine and sizable following, much more akin to Fascist Italy or Franco's Spain than to the quisling governments in the rest of occupied Europe.

As long as he has a good excuse like Mers-El-Kabir, Hitler gives him a decent peace treaty, and he won't call a massive conscription, the French people won't mind the Axis alliance too much.
 
The popularity of Vichy France is often grossly understimated in this forum. It was a homebrewn fascist regime with a genuine and sizable following, much more akin to Fascist Italy or Franco's Spain than to the quisling governments in the rest of occupied Europe.

As long as he has a good excuse like Mers-El-Kabir, Hitler gives him a decent peace treaty, and he won't call a massive conscription, the French people won't mind the Axis alliance too much.
Yep, the French far-right were overjoyed at Hitler letting them set up a state of their own.
 
The popularity of Vichy France is often grossly understimated in this forum. It was a homebrewn fascist regime with a genuine and sizable following, much more akin to Fascist Italy or Franco's Spain than to the quisling governments in the rest of occupied Europe.

As long as he has a good excuse like Mers-El-Kabir, Hitler gives him a decent peace treaty, and he won't call a massive conscription, the French people won't mind the Axis alliance too much.

You underestimate the anti-german felling of the french popullation they have been defeated and humiliated and occupied but no they won't mind to mutch:rolleyes:
 
Might Admiral Darlan switch sides? He certainly tried to when Allied forces landed in North Africa. Maybe in this timeline he survives.
 

Typo

Banned
The popularity of Vichy France is often grossly understimated in this forum. It was a homebrewn fascist regime with a genuine and sizable following, much more akin to Fascist Italy or Franco's Spain than to the quisling governments in the rest of occupied Europe.

As long as he has a good excuse like Mers-El-Kabir, Hitler gives him a decent peace treaty, and he won't call a massive conscription, the French people won't mind the Axis alliance too much.
Which is not true after the first 6 month of Vichy, you are confusing Vichy 1940 with the rest of the war years, the Vichy Regime was popular in 1940 because it brought stability. But as the resistance grew significantly once it became clear that they were just German stooges, and even more so when the Wehrmacht started to mass murder Frenchmen in relaliation for partisan attacks. 

But then again have the war go better for the Germans for a while, and have Petain in old age make a bunch of bad decisions and you'll get a France allied to Germany, however reluctantly, and sort of useless actually.
 

Typo

Banned
These feelings wheren´t that strong during the occupation, only before and after.
The feelings were strong during among the people, people for some reasons tend to project 1940 onto 1941 and 1942 because the French civil service and police collaborated more than the people did
 
The feelings were strong during among the people, people for some reasons tend to project 1940 onto 1941 and 1942 because the French civil service and police collaborated more than the people did


Thing is, there was a majority of Petainistes in 1941, just as there was a majority of Gaulistes in 1945.
 
What is a Petainistes exactly?

I'm asking a serious question

Scholars usually define three categories of French supporters of the Vichy regime :

the Maréchalistes (the Marshallists) : people from all sides of political spectrum and common people who support Pétain personnaly and follow his personality cult, seeing him as the hero from Verdun and the benevolent leader of a defeated France, although they may be critical of the regime itself, and are usually hostile to Germany (but not necessarily supporters of the Resistance). One can say that most of French people were Maréchalistes in 1940-1941. Pétain's popularity declines after early 1942, mostly when Laval comes back to power, whereas the majority of population is attentist, hostile to Germany, favorable to the Allies even if wary of the bombings, and more or less supportive of the Free French the Resistance (although armed Resistance is often condamned as a foolish strategy that endeangers civilians). Note that, even in 1944, Pétain still had some personal popularity, some people believing in good faith that he was secretly working with De Gaulle.

The Vichysts ; conservative segment of the population that supports Pétain AND is satisfied by the reactionary, Francoist-like Vichy regime. Mostly from the conservative political elite of the 1930's plus the monarchists, a part of the Catholic establishment, and many proeminent members of the pacifist Left that rallied to Pétain. Often, but not always, pro-German, stauchly anticommunist, sometimes Anglophobic, and more antisemitic than the average Frenchman. A sizeable minority in 1941, Vichists lost many power and support after the end of the Free Zone, some rallying the Resistance (usually Giraudist, then Gaullist), some ceasing any political activity, some (a minority) faithful to Pétain, and some, finally, joining...

The Collaborateurs : Radical elements of the far-right promoting an alliance with Nazi germany, working with Vichy, but vehemently denouncing its "softness". Curious mixture of traditonal far-right, fascist elements that are sometimes (but not as often it is sometimes claimed) socialist or communist dissidents, and some Breton and Flemish nationalists (the Corsicans were more fond of Benito). Widely loathed even in 1940-1941, hated after 1943 and the creation of the Milice.

Pétainistes are usually Maréchalistes and Vichystes banded together.
 
Top