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This being Clovis I, the Frankish king who conquered one of the last independent Roman states north of the Alps, who founded the Merovingian dynasty in Gaul, and who set the stage for pretty much all of early Medieval history. Close analysis of future events should show that his decision to convert to a Catholic form of Christianity was decisive in several different ways.

1. A Catholic King was, perhaps, key to seeing off Muslim raiders at Tours a few centuries later. An Arian Christian king in Visigothic Spain absolutely failed in the face of a similar situation, when a relatively small force of Islamic raiders hit the Iberian peninsula and destroyed the Visigothic Kingdom. Without the Catholic peasantry feeling that the government underneath which they toiled was their government fighting with the blessing of their God and their Church, things seemed to have turned out differently. It's plausible that a similar outcome would be possible had Clovis turned to Arianism.

2. Without a Catholic Frankish Kingdom, there's precisely zero chance that the Pope will see fit to crown a Frankish king Roman Emperor.

3. Without the scruples of Catholic tradition, it's possible that there would have developed no such thing as a 'secure' kingship in Frankish Gaul. As the Merovingian dynasty weakened, instead of leaving centuries for their Mayors of the Palace to strengthen their own position before finally supplanting the old dynasty, it's likely an ambitious nobleman would have simply killed the old king and taken his place.

4. A secure Catholic Frankish Empire was vital for the Christianization of the rest of Europe. The Anglo-Saxons Christianized, in part, because of missions from Catholic Francia. The Christianization of Germania depended on Merovignian and Carolingian conquests there. While these areas might have Christianized anyway (emphasis on might), the process would have been entirely different and it's possible that they might not have ended up as Catholics.

5. There are some tantalizing hints that the earliest Viking raids were actually responses to Frankish attacks on the Saxons, allies to the early Scandinavian kingdoms. If there's no Charlemagne to attack the Saxons, the Viking Age might turn out entirely different.

I don't think it's particularly plausible to imagine that Clovis, or one of his near successors, would have remained pagan. A pagan conqueror would not have been able to easily control a conquered Christian population and the incentive to convert for easy legitimacy would always be there. But an Arian Clovis closely aping the policies of the Visigoths is going to be something very different anyway.

Might large swathes of Europe remain pagan? How does Medieval history unfold as Late Antiquity comes to a close without a strong, Catholic Frankish Empire at its heart? What might happen?
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