This is a bit of a complicated one, but let's say there's no 22nd Amendment and Clinton-Gore runs again and narrowly win in 2000, perhaps a bit cleaner due to Clinton's presence. How does the third term go, with 9/11 and the results? How do the duo look going into 2004? Does Clinton consider running for a fourth term? Is he still popular? Is the recession pushed off, sped up or as OTL? What happens to Gore? Assuming Bush-Cheney is still nominated in 2000, who are 2004's nominees?
WI: Clinton-Gore Third Term
- Thread starter JVM
- Start date
To start off with, if Clinton had run again, he'd have won a landslide. He was immensely popular at the end of his second term, and he'd have curbstompped Shrub. Ooh, those debates would have been awesome, and W would have become little more than a historical footnote in the future.
As for everything that happened OTL, who knows. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility to say that perhaps the 9/11 plot might have been stopped by the intelligence services beforehand. The Bush transition team blew off the Clinton team's attempts to brief them on terror matters, and the flippant manner the treated the terror threat in the beginning months of their administration leads on to ponder what could have been...
As far as 2004, if things do go generally OTL, then you could see McCain's best chance as attaining the White House. Gore is Gore, a great, intelligent, homourous guy in a laid-back setting but a wonky and stiff politician. Maybe he doesn't even run, but the Democratic bench at the time wasn't terribly deep. Besides, 12 years is a long time for a single party to control the White House.
Should McCain win, then we will probably end up in 2008 at about the same place we did OTL. Considering the man never met a war he didn't want to fight, I see us entering the 2008 elections bogged down in foreign conflicts with no end in sight and an economy on the brink of collapse. All hail Madam President Hillary Clinton and Vice President Barack Obama
I'm not going to speculate on whether or not 9/11 still happens. Many people think they know but they don't. There are soooo many factors that have to be accounted for to have 9/11 to happen under a Clinton (or Gore) presidency. Maybe it still happens, maybe not.
Federal funding for stem-cell research continues. Whether 9/11 happens or not the U.S. does not go to war in Iraq. Of course if Bill runs and wins a 3rd term, Hillary certainly doesn't move to New York and run for senate there. Maybe since Hillary's not running for that seat, JFK Jr. becomes the front runner for possible Democratic candidates for that senate seat. Maybe laying the ground work for a senate campaign makes him too busy to go to his cousin's wedding that weekend in 1999.
The Republicans hold onto the congress after the 2002 elections. But considering there was Clinton fatigue by 2000, there would be even more by 2003. Clinton would decline to run for a 4th term. Plus his health would decline through the 3rd term. He might even have a heart attack sometime during the 3rd term, making a 2004 run for him even less likely. By that time both Al Gore and Hillary would be ready to move on and step out of Bill's shadow.
George W. Bush remains Governor of Texas and wins re-election in 2002 but never runs for president again. Dick Cheney goes back to the business world while also still being involved behind the scenes in Republican politics. It's John McCain's turn to get the Republican nomination and he chooses George Allen to be his running mate. Al Gore wins the Democratic nomination easily and chooses John Edwards to be his running mate. The economy is still good and we're further away from the Lewinsky scandal by 2004. But after 12 years of Democratic control of the White House, McCain wins in a close election.
No 22nd Amendment means the impeachment effort goes even more over-the-top to prevent a third C-G term and makes it clear the GOP has no interest in going by the electorate's call on who's fit to lead.
Clinton, if he took that on directly and made that a meme that they're a bunch of sore losers trying to win in court when they can't in the ballot box would have made the whole circus implode.
Of course, Clinton could just fpor poltical or health reasons put Gore out there in 2000 for effectively a third term, give him full support (which he didn't), and it's close but not the squeaker it was OTL. YMMDV.
As to whether the dot-bomb recession happens- I'd say it still does. As a low-level IT techie just before the Y2K insanity, I'd say the IT industry was in dire need of a wake-up call in so many ways, it's not funny.
Too many people hoped to throw too much half-baked gear,services, and software out there, not to mention too many hopeful folks throwing $$$ at the next Big Thing took a lot of brutal shakeouts for business reality to hit.
9/11 happened for a variety of reasons- Al-Qaeda's still pissed and planning an attack. Clinton-Gore weren't a magic talisman protecting us.
However, they were more aware and engaged in hunting AQ down for the embassy bombings that W and his crew sidelined for their own reasons.
The bureaucratic inertia preventing the FBI from using the NSA's SIGINT and CIA info and rounding up the plotters tout suite would still be a problem under any administration.
Clinton, if he took that on directly and made that a meme that they're a bunch of sore losers trying to win in court when they can't in the ballot box would have made the whole circus implode.
Of course, Clinton could just fpor poltical or health reasons put Gore out there in 2000 for effectively a third term, give him full support (which he didn't), and it's close but not the squeaker it was OTL. YMMDV.
As to whether the dot-bomb recession happens- I'd say it still does. As a low-level IT techie just before the Y2K insanity, I'd say the IT industry was in dire need of a wake-up call in so many ways, it's not funny.
Too many people hoped to throw too much half-baked gear,services, and software out there, not to mention too many hopeful folks throwing $$$ at the next Big Thing took a lot of brutal shakeouts for business reality to hit.
9/11 happened for a variety of reasons- Al-Qaeda's still pissed and planning an attack. Clinton-Gore weren't a magic talisman protecting us.
However, they were more aware and engaged in hunting AQ down for the embassy bombings that W and his crew sidelined for their own reasons.
The bureaucratic inertia preventing the FBI from using the NSA's SIGINT and CIA info and rounding up the plotters tout suite would still be a problem under any administration.
I wonder how big the 'no third term' issue would be. You can imagine people asking is 2000 really like 1940. Is Clinton really as great as FDR?
It's not a matter of whether Clinton was as good as FDR was. I'd argue he was OK but not in FDR's orbit.
It was simply a matter of Clinton being preferred to anyone else in or out of the Democratic party as of 2000 and the GOP's attempts to go moderate in the 90's going nowhere until W IOTL.
Realistically, if you're a Democrat, would you rather have Clinton or Gore as standard-bearer?
The sad fact is, politics isn't rationally scored by who'd have the best policies, it's about who connects with audience.
I'm a Green techie who should worship Gore, but he just strikes me as something nutritious you're supposed to like (protein bar) but find nearly inedible next to the flawed but tasty Clinton.
NO 22nd Amendment creates some butterflies but IMO, there was a powerful precedent for two terms being it for American presidents unless some major crisis is going on.
YMMDV.
It was simply a matter of Clinton being preferred to anyone else in or out of the Democratic party as of 2000 and the GOP's attempts to go moderate in the 90's going nowhere until W IOTL.
Realistically, if you're a Democrat, would you rather have Clinton or Gore as standard-bearer?
The sad fact is, politics isn't rationally scored by who'd have the best policies, it's about who connects with audience.
I'm a Green techie who should worship Gore, but he just strikes me as something nutritious you're supposed to like (protein bar) but find nearly inedible next to the flawed but tasty Clinton.
NO 22nd Amendment creates some butterflies but IMO, there was a powerful precedent for two terms being it for American presidents unless some major crisis is going on.
YMMDV.
I don't see how. Bill as the POTUS would have to still live in the White House. It wouldn't look good for the sitting First Lady for the next four years to be living outside the White House having a house in New York. It would also not look good for a sitting U.S. senator (a member of the legislative branch) living in the White House and married to the head of the executive branch. I mean it was already a major case of carpetbagging with her running and winning as a sitting First Lady in 2000. But it was largely over looked because in 1999-2000 everybody knew she and Bill would be leaving the White House and moving on to a post-presidency. If Bill remains POTUS, no way she could run for (or be a) senator from New York. She would still be First Lady until 1/20/2005 and she'd still have duties as First Lady. Chelsea Clinton was in college during that time so she couldn't takeover Hillary's duties as FLOTUS.
I think Bill would try to take the high road on the campaign trail and insist they focus on the issues, touting his good economic record instead. I think as far as the primaries go, it makes little difference - he'll get a challenge from within the party but'll still do just fine. The general election's messier but his incumbency edge and popularity keep him from slipping too far back.
Allegedly, Clinton-Gore had focused their attention on Bin Laden and al qaeda. So maybe instead of hijacking planes, the twenty plotters are picked up on the strength of intelligence gathered by FBI agents et al and end up becoming profoundly uncomfortable in an American prison.
Nation ends up closer to resolving debt than otl.
Domestic politics would be more or less more of the same, Clinton and the Republicans playing "gotcha!" with each other and not making big changes.
Nation ends up closer to resolving debt than otl.
Domestic politics would be more or less more of the same, Clinton and the Republicans playing "gotcha!" with each other and not making big changes.