In reaction to Chinese missile tests designed to intimidate the Taiwanese in advance of their 1996 elections, the US surged a carrier task force into the western Pacific and transited the Taiwan Straits, signaling it's opposition to the PRC's move. The PRC immediately recognized they had nothing that could match US air and naval power and that a blockade or invasion would be broken.
What if Clinton did no military posturing in this instance, doing no more than diplomatically condemning the Chinese move?
What would have happened in 1996, and in the 20 years since?