I would love to hear more elaboration on the different voting choices.
I'll start by offering some of my views. I voted that all of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea would build up their indigenous defensive capability under the circumstances where the US was less forceful or reassuring. In the case of Taiwan that was a popular choice in the poll (8 votes at this point). I also did *not* vote for Taiwan making concessions in any form or for China going right into blockade or invasion at that point in the 1990s.
Note that a Taiwanese build-up would be the *opposite* of OTL. Taiwan was highly militarized through the 80s and martial law era, and the defense sector has employed a *shrinking* percentage of the workforce as Taiwan has democratized. Even as pro-independence parties have won the presidency at times, Taiwan has become increasingly comfortable with relying on US guarantees for deterrence and defense and not obligated to contribute a rising share itself.
I'm interested in elaboration of some others' votes, for instance, what the distancing of Japan from the US and rapprochement toward China could look like, what a successful blockade would look like, or the vote on how the outcome of the Taiwan election of 1996 would be changed.
Getting back to the OTL situation prior to Clinton's intervention, I understand the Chinese were unhappy with Taiwan having a Presidential election at all, and that they disliked Lee Teng-hui. However, it's puzzling to see how they though threatening Taiwan would make the situation better for themselves. I mean, if they were trying to make Lee Teng-hu, an advocate of sneaky, gradual, de facto independence lose, that does not mean Beijing would win. Lee's main opponent was from the outright pro-independence DPP.
It seems to me that if Chinese pressure succeeded in making Lee lose in 1996, China would just have taken its Taiwan reunification policy out of the frying pan right into the fire.
In 1996 I think there was a third party candidate, opposing independence (the New Party) representing the mainlander constituency, but if Beijing thought intimidating Taiwan would boost that guy's vote it seems like a highly unrealistic calculation for men as astute as Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin.
Thoughts?