WI: Clinton Assassinated By Ramzi Yousef

(Yousef) left Manila for several days, but was met by Islamist emissaries upon his return to Metro Manila. They asked him to attack United States President Bill Clinton, who was due to arrive in the Philippines on November 12, 1994 as part of a five-day tour of Asia. Yousef thought of several ways to kill the president, including placing nuclear bombs on Clinton's motorcade route, firing a Stinger missile at Air Force One or the presidential limousine, launching theater ballistic missiles at Manila and or killing him with phosgene, a chemical weapon. He abandoned the idea, as it would be too difficult to kill the President.
What if he continues his plan and succeeds in killing President Clinton? How will Gore do as president? How will Gingrich and the Republicans react? How would an earlier "War on Terror" go? How would this impact the Bojinka plot?
 
If the bits involving nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles are any indicator of the overall quality of this guy's plans, then I don't think Bill was in any danger.
 
What if he continues his plan and succeeds in killing President Clinton? How will Gore do as president? How will Gingrich and the Republicans react? How would an earlier "War on Terror" go? How would this impact the Bojinka plot?
Just from the sounds of the Wiki excerpt, are we sure this was an actual plan? It has Yousef, who had been heavily involved in the first WTC attack and had devised the initial planning for what became 9/11, throwing out everything from launching a Stinger at Air Force One to launching ballistic missiles at Bill to using nuclear weapons. This sounds like someone brainstorming a Hollywood action movie more than it does any attempt at coming up with a realistic plan to assassinate Clinton.
 
Just from the sounds of the Wiki excerpt, are we sure this was an actual plan? It has Yousef, who had been heavily involved in the first WTC attack and had devised the initial planning for what became 9/11, throwing out everything from launching a Stinger at Air Force One to launching ballistic missiles at Bill to using nuclear weapons. This sounds like someone brainstorming a Hollywood action movie more than it does any attempt at coming up with a realistic plan to assassinate Clinton.

I concur, but there is a solution to this problem. Bill did campaign in New York IOTL and had political interests in the city. Have him announce he will visit the towers to give a speech/press conference or for any other conceivable reason and for Yousef to just launch the OTL attack anyway and to get lucky and find a parking space close to the wall. The experts who reviewed the attack said it could have succeeded in knocking over both towers; this happens. Move on from there.

The War on Terror aspect is interesting because there isn't really an obvious target to attack at this point. OBL isn't on anyone's radar yet and IIRC he wasn't directly involved in the attack, it was the Blind Sheikh. It might be viewed as a domestic terror event by a religious cult analogous to Aum Shinrikyo, those pleasant fellows who released that sarin in the Tokyo Subway.

On the other hand, a successful WTC bombing would be a truly catastrophic event. More casualties than the Vietnam War in the blink of an eye...
 
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All will fail. Al Qaeda can't get the nukes or missiles, Air Force One has tons of countermeasures aimed at exactly that sort of attack, Clinton's presidential limo is likewise immune to a poison gas attack.

That said, assuming the Secret Service and other security isn't able to find the phosgene, releasing it in downtown Metro Manila could have some interesting effects, especially since it's obviously an assassination attempt on the American president.
 
I wonder what would happen if Yousef used a variation on the plot to kill the Pope, i.e. rig some explosives, place it in disguise on a bridge on the route of the motorcade, wait for motorcade to pass then boom?
 
All will fail. Al Qaeda can't get the nukes or missiles, Air Force One has tons of countermeasures aimed at exactly that sort of attack, Clinton's presidential limo is likewise immune to a poison gas attack.

That said, assuming the Secret Service and other security isn't able to find the phosgene, releasing it in downtown Metro Manila could have some interesting effects, especially since it's obviously an assassination attempt on the American president.
Also phosgene just isn't that toxic
 
I concur, but there is a solution to this problem. Bill did campaign in New York IOTL and had political interests in the city. Have him announce he will visit the towers to give a speech/press conference or for any other conceivable reason and for Yousef to just launch the OTL attack anyway and to get lucky and find a parking space close to the wall. The experts who reviewed the attack said it could have succeeded in knocking over both towers; this happens. Move on from their.

The War on Terror aspect is interesting because there isn't really an obvious target to attack at this point. OBL isn't on anyone's radar yet and IIRC he wasn't directly involved in the attack, it was the Blind Sheikh. It might be viewed as a domestic terror event by a religious cult analogous to Aum Shinrikyo, those pleasant fellows who released that sarin in the Tokyo Subway.

On the other hand, a successful WTC bombing would be a truly catastrophic event. More casualties than the Vietnam War in the blink of an eye...
But this would have been an attack when Bill was visiting Manila, not when he's in NYC.
 
I wonder what would happen if Yousef used a variation on the plot to kill the Pope, i.e. rig some explosives, place it in disguise on a bridge on the route of the motorcade, wait for motorcade to pass then boom?

Bridges are really, really hard to destroy unless you have demolitions training, know exactly what you're doing, and have the right access and equipment. I'm going to say this probably couldn't work.

But this would have been an attack when Bill was visiting Manila, not when he's in NYC.

Yeah, I'm just responding in a general sense to plausible ways Yousef could have assassinated Clinton.
 
If Yousef bombs the WTC early enough and gets Clinton, one interesting potential efffect is if U.S. forces around the world go on higher alert and maybe the butterflies get the Rangers in Somalia Apaches and an armored company like they asked for. If that happened the Battle of Mogadishu would have been a curbstomp. That incident was what convinced most Islamists that America could be defeated through direct military confrontation (before that most of them thought Bin Laden was crazy). If it doesn't happen, that has huge ramifications for the development of Islamic extremism.
 
Bridges are really, really hard to destroy unless you have demolitions training, know exactly what you're doing, and have the right access and equipment. I'm going to say this probably couldn't work.



Yeah, I'm just responding in a general sense to plausible ways Yousef could have assassinated Clinton.
The object wasn't to blow the bridge but the person. Of course the difference was that Clinton wouldn't be in a Popemobile waving and partlially exposed.
 
The object wasn't to blow the bridge but the person. Of course the difference was that Clinton wouldn't be in a Popemobile waving and partlially exposed.

You're pretty much going to have to demolish the bridge for this plan to work. Otherwise the concrete and armor of the vehicle will channel the force away.
 
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