In 1988, Bill Clinton came close to declaring a run for President but he backed out at the last minute. What if Clinton had instead decided to run? Could he have won the Democratic nomination? If so, how would he have done against Bush? If not, how would Clinton's decision impact 1992?

EDIT: Technically speaking Clinton pulled himself out of contention in July 1987, not 1988, three months after fellow DLC Democrat Al Gore entered the race: https://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/15/us/clinton-decides-he-won-t-seek-88-nomination.html
 
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I’m not clear on th timeline of all the sexual harassment cases against him, but if we’re on the heels of a fairly popular VP in good economic times and too close to Gary Hart getting torpedoed for a consensual affair, he has too much baggage and either would lose the nomination, becoming damaged goods in ‘92 and setting up a guy like Tsongas or even Gore to win the nomination.

Bear in mind he ran on economics, and Bush was mired in a recession. If he doesn’t have that trump card, he’s in a world of hurt in the general election no matter how well he campaigns.
 
I’m not clear on th timeline of all the sexual harassment cases against him, but if we’re on the heels of a fairly popular VP in good economic times and too close to Gary Hart getting torpedoed for a consensual affair, he has too much baggage and either would lose the nomination, becoming damaged goods in ‘92 and setting up a guy like Tsongas or even Gore to win the nomination.

Bear in mind he ran on economics, and Bush was mired in a recession. If he doesn’t have that trump card, he’s in a world of hurt in the general election no matter how well he campaigns.

IMO, Gore and Clinton would split the Southern centrist vote - but with more of it going to Gore. Gore had more of a national profile at the time and Clinton hadn't yet sorted out his problems with women (this was a major reason he didn't run). If he gets hit with a Flowers-type scandal during the primary season, his support would shift to Gore. I don't see any way he could beat Dukakis in New Hampshire and with most of the Southern primaries going to either Gore or Jackson, Clinton would be toast. I don't think he gets anywhere near the presidential nomination, and neither is he chosen as VP.

As for 1992, either Clinton doesn't run again or he gives the nomination a second chance but loses once again. I just don't see how he could win after a disastrous 1988 candidacy that leaves a bad first impression in the minds of voters. Also one major reason Cuomo didn't run in '92 is that he feared New York's budget problems would be used against him by the Clinton camp. Without Clinton, or with a a very weak Clinton in the race, it's more likely that Cuomo runs and he wins the nomination in 1992. But even without Cuomo, I think it's more likely that Tsongas or Brown beats Clinton for the 1992 nomination.
 
He'd be utterly destroyed in the post-Monkey Business atmosphere due to his baggage and his candidacy is consequently kaput by the autumn. His candidacy barely survived in 1992 after Gennifer Flowers; without the retrospective recriminations against the press which took place in the years after Hart's collapse, and with the tabloid spirit of that cycle in full flow there's no way Bubba is a viable candidate. Him not weighing into the 1988 race was probably the smartest political move he ever made.
 
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