WI: Clear American Victory at Monmouth

Background: By June of 1778 the French had entered the American Revolutionary War on the side of the American rebels. This drastically changed the strategic situation for the British Army who had captured and occupied Philadelphia the previous year. Wary of the threat the French posed to the main British base at New York City the commander-in-chief of the British forces General Sir Henry Clinton was ordered by his superiors to withdraw from Philadelphia back to New York to defend the city.

With sea evacuation not feasible the British Army began a 100 mile march across New Jersey. Aware that such a large force was vulnerable to splintering George Washington decided to attack the British rearguard under Charles Cornwallis at Monmouth Courthouse. Destroying the rearguard would put Clinton in a bind: he could either hurry his forces towards New York and risk his army being divided and defeated in detail or he could stand and give battle to the Americans. Being drawn into a large battle would risk his army being cut off by the French fleet and trapped in New Jersey.

So my question is this: what if the Americans succeed in destroying the British rearguard at Monmouth? OTL this might have been feasibly done but unfortunately for the Americans Washington had given command to General Charles Lee, who badly bungled the job by committing his forces piecemeal against Cornwallis who was able to counterattack and almost rout the Americans.

The POD is that Lee refuses the assignment due to his misgivings and command instead passes to the young Lafayette. Lafayette proves up to the task and successfully defeats Cornwallis. If Clinton is then forced to enter battle could the end result be a situation where he is forced to surrender his entire army when he later finds his retreat to New York City cut off by the French? This might effectively be a Yorktown situation three years earlier than OTL.
 
Background: By June of 1778 the French had entered the American Revolutionary War on the side of the American rebels. This drastically changed the strategic situation for the British Army who had captured and occupied Philadelphia the previous year. Wary of the threat the French posed to the main British base at New York City the commander-in-chief of the British forces General Sir Henry Clinton was ordered by his superiors to withdraw from Philadelphia back to New York to defend the city.

With sea evacuation not feasible the British Army began a 100 mile march across New Jersey. Aware that such a large force was vulnerable to splintering George Washington decided to attack the British rearguard under Charles Cornwallis at Monmouth Courthouse. Destroying the rearguard would put Clinton in a bind: he could either hurry his forces towards New York and risk his army being divided and defeated in detail or he could stand and give battle to the Americans. Being drawn into a large battle would risk his army being cut off by the French fleet and trapped in New Jersey.

So my question is this: what if the Americans succeed in destroying the British rearguard at Monmouth? OTL this might have been feasibly done but unfortunately for the Americans Washington had given command to General Charles Lee, who badly bungled the job by committing his forces piecemeal against Cornwallis who was able to counterattack and almost rout the Americans.

The POD is that Lee refuses the assignment due to his misgivings and command instead passes to the young Lafayette. Lafayette proves up to the task and successfully defeats Cornwallis. If Clinton is then forced to enter battle could the end result be a situation where he is forced to surrender his entire army when he later finds his retreat to New York City cut off by the French? This might effectively be a Yorktown situation three years earlier than OTL.


Possibly, but would this significantly change the terms of the Brittish surrender or the details of the new nation?
 
Possibly, but would this significantly change the terms of the Brittish surrender or the details of the new nation?
Losing several years early to the Americans might make the British decide to cut their losses and give the Americans what they want so they themselves are free to fight it out with the Netherlands, Spain, and France without being distracted in North America. If given the offer the Americans will probably, as OTL, throw their allies under the bus and get out while the gettings good.

Alternatively, if the British don't make the offer their severe loss in North America could embolden the colonists to take more of British North America. Not Quebec, but perhaps the rest of what we know as Eastern Canada.
 
Losing several years early to the Americans might make the British decide to cut their losses and give the Americans what they want so they themselves are free to fight it out with the Netherlands, Spain, and France without being distracted in North America. If given the offer the Americans will probably, as OTL, throw their allies under the bus and get out while the gettings good.

Alternatively, if the British don't make the offer their severe loss in North America could embolden the colonists to take more of British North America. Not Quebec, but perhaps the rest of what we know as Eastern Canada.
So a peace settlement giving the US the Maritimes and the Ontario peninsula up to the Nissiping Line?
 
So a peace settlement giving the US the Maritimes and the Ontario peninsula up to the Nissiping Line?
That's what I was thinking if the British don't make a peace offer early, or rather that the Americans will try for it. Whether they succeed is up for debate. If they do I'd expect it to be either similiar to OTL, or even a little less actually.
 
So a peace settlement giving the US the Maritimes and the Ontario peninsula up to the Nissiping Line?
IDK about Western Canada, but AFAIK Newfoundland is basically impossible for America to get. But Nova Scotia (including PEI and NB) is doable. Maybe the Bahamas or Bermuda, but I think what you said makes the most sense.
 
Losing several years early to the Americans might make the British decide to cut their losses and give the Americans what they want so they themselves are free to fight it out with the Netherlands, Spain, and France without being distracted in North America. If given the offer the Americans will probably, as OTL, throw their allies under the bus and get out while the gettings good.

I agree. This would be second British field army in less than a year to be forced to surrender combined with the war flaring up into a global conflict in which the British have no allies. I believe the shock would be enough to bring down Lord North's ministry three years sooner than OTL.

The Spanish were originally cagey about assisting the American cause because they worried about losing their American possessions to the British. In a scenario where the British have suffered another humiliating defeat to the rebel colonists the Spanish might be emboldened to begin operations in the Americas against British territory in the Caribbean which could really hurt the British economy. By 1778 it was agreed that their sugar plantations were of more economic value than the American colonies themselves.

Alternatively, if the British don't make the offer their severe loss in North America could embolden the colonists to take more of British North America. Not Quebec, but perhaps the rest of what we know as Eastern Canada.

They might try that but I don't think it would work out any better for them than their failed attempt at Quebec, even with French assistance. Nova Scotia was a major British base of operations guarding the rest of Atlantic Canada and the overland route is through sparsely populated wilderness. It might well turn into a reverse Saratoga with a Franco-American army lost.
 
IOTL the British did try to cut their losses and negotiate separately with the Americans to essentially give them what they wanted, so they could focus on the war with France. This was the Carlisle mission, which took place before Monmouth. The British didn't offer enough or adequately support the negotiators, and the United States had just signed a military alliance with France which provided for no separate peace, I think there was still hope of taking Canada.

Had the 1778 campaign gone really bad, the British would have tried a separate peace for real. Really bad could plausibly include losing Newport as well, a major naval defeat, or even losing New York. But the post speculated on just a defeat at Monmouth alone, and that may not have been enough.

However, you could have had Sandwich ascendant in the cabinet and have him convince the cabinet that they needed to withdraw from New York as well as Philadelphia. One thing people don't realize about the American War of Independence is that the evacuation of the thirteen states/ colonies began as soon as France declared war, with involved both giving up positions and removing regiments. They evacuated Philadelphia and Ticonderoga right away and Newport after a short delay, and evacuating New York as well was considered.

So what would likely have happened was New York evacuated and no siege of Charleston, but there is no formal peace agreement for a few years and the British continue to raid and seize minor objectives. But this is really just a lower scale version of what they did in 1778-82 and what they did in the War of 1812. And Americans have had no problems in framing both as active efforts to crush American independence. Plus many of the evacuated troops would be in Britain preparing to repulse an invasion that never happened, so not much effect even on the war with France and Spain.
 
IDK about Western Canada, but AFAIK Newfoundland is basically impossible for America to get. But Nova Scotia (including PEI and NB) is doable. Maybe the Bahamas or Bermuda, but I think what you said makes the most sense.

I can't see Americans looking at the perfectly intact Royal Navy and asking for Caribbean islands with a straight face.
 
Eastern Canada, Florida, and the Bahamas become areas of US interest. Britain keeps Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Quebec likely becomes an issue, but the rest of Canada likely ends up in US hands. It might delay or avoid the Louisiana purchase as the thirst for land will be slaked a bit more than OTL in 1803.
 
It might delay or avoid the Louisiana purchase as the thirst for land will be slaked a bit more than OTL in 1803.
Doubt it, at least not for that reason. The real point of the Louisiana Purchase was New Orleans. The US will want New Orleans regardless of anything else. Its too important a port for American shipments from upriver., and without New Orleans Louisiana is basically worthless.

Now it might delay it simply because of butterflies, but not due to a lack of desire for land.
 

raharris1973

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Losing several years early to the Americans might make the British decide to cut their losses and give the Americans what they want so they themselves are free to fight it out with the Netherlands, Spain, and France without being distracted in North America.

I think the British were only at war with France by this time, not with Spain yet. As someone else suggested, the severity of the defeat may prompt Spain to pile on and attack at Gibraltar, West Florida and the Caribbean. Netherlands was not at war and indeed Britain declared war rather than the other way around, so the Netherlands may be left out of it.
 
I think the British were only at war with France by this time, not with Spain yet. As someone else suggested, the severity of the defeat may prompt Spain to pile on and attack at Gibraltar, West Florida and the Caribbean. Netherlands was not at war and indeed Britain declared war rather than the other way around, so the Netherlands may be left out of it.

So Dutch South Africa may survive. Interesting butterfly.
 
Doubt it, at least not for that reason. The real point of the Louisiana Purchase was New Orleans. The US will want New Orleans regardless of anything else. Its too important a port for American shipments from upriver., and without New Orleans Louisiana is basically worthless.

Now it might delay it simply because of butterflies, but not due to a lack of desire for land.

I agree that New Orleans was the real reason for the purchase but with the Americans now able to route trade through the St Lawrence potentially it may delay the desire for New Orleans for long enough it can be conquered or purchased later on.
 

raharris1973

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I think the British were only at war with France by this time, not with Spain yet. As someone else suggested, the severity of the defeat may prompt Spain to pile on and attack at Gibraltar, West Florida and the Caribbean. Netherlands was not at war and indeed Britain declared war rather than the other way around, so the Netherlands may be left out of it.

Revisiting this theme, perhaps even if there is a separate Anglo-American peace almost as soon as the new Anglo-French war starts, this may do little to avoid the widening of the war to include Spain by 1779 and the Netherlands by 1780.

The Spanish still have the family compact connection, and the British would likely try to stop Dutch profiteering from its neutrality, trying to give it a choice of "with us or against us". I don't think any of this makes Netherlands go, "OK, we'll join in on the British side".

What differences in US economic and constitutional development would such an early victory make? How would the history of emancipation in the northern colonies be affected, if at all? How about the numbers of slaves and free blacks in the southern colonies that are spare serious fighting in the ATL? How would an early victory change the trajectory of any of the Founding Fathers/Brothers - for instance, had Benedict Arnold already betrayed the US?
 

raharris1973

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Revisiting this theme, perhaps even if there is a separate Anglo-American peace almost as soon as the new Anglo-French war starts, this may do little to avoid the widening of the war to include Spain by 1779 and the Netherlands by 1780.

The Spanish still have the family compact connection, and the British would likely try to stop Dutch profiteering from its neutrality, trying to give it a choice of "with us or against us". I don't think any of this makes Netherlands go, "OK, we'll join in on the British side".

What differences in US economic and constitutional development would such an early victory make? How would the history of emancipation in the northern colonies be affected, if at all? How about the numbers of slaves and free blacks in the southern colonies that are spare serious fighting in the ATL? How would an early victory change the trajectory of any of the Founding Fathers/Brothers - for instance, had Benedict Arnold already betrayed the US?

Then riffing off this last post, this could be a PoD that mirrors the early parts of Drakaverse history. Less of Canada is available for loyalists with an earlier, bigger US victory, but Britain holds its own in the wars with France, Spain and Netherlands, eventually regaining the upper hand and conquering the Cape Colony and that becomes a focus for loyalist settlement.
 
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