WI: Churchill ousted in '52?

What would it take for Winston Churchill to be ousted from the Premiership in the December of 1952, following the smog. Would Elizabeth ask him to step down in favor of Eden, or would Atlee's vote of no confidence throw the Conservatives from a majority? Or is there another option?
 
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Interesting POD; I hadn't heard of any great parliamentary controversy surrounding the Great Smog. But one of the main things keeping Churchill around in his second ministry was the poor health of Anthony Eden. You'd need either a moment where Eden's health was good or a different story crown prince, I think.
 
Attlee had planned on tabling a motion of no confidence on the matter - and support was on his side among the public. Coupled in woth Churchill's slim majority, the government could well have fell. An attempt could have been made to send for Anthony Eden, but if an election was called I imagine Labour would have won it.

After only a year out of office, it's questionable whether Attlee would have returned to government with any more new ideas or radical reforms. May have resigned earlier than Otl and handed over to Morrison/Bevan/Gaitskell - or have been voted out after four or five years in favour of an Eden led Tory party.
 
Incredibly minor point based on pedantry, but Prime Ministry isn't the correct term. 'Premiership' would be more correct.

That's an odd term, but fixed.

Attlee had planned on tabling a motion of no confidence on the matter - and support was on his side among the public. Coupled in woth Churchill's slim majority, the government could well have fell. An attempt could have been made to send for Anthony Eden, but if an election was called I imagine Labour would have won it.

After only a year out of office, it's questionable whether Attlee would have returned to government with any more new ideas or radical reforms. May have resigned earlier than Otl and handed over to Morrison/Bevan/Gaitskell - or have been voted out after four or five years in favour of an Eden led Tory party.

It was only because of his public show of support for fighting the smog that Attlee didn't press the issue wasn't it? If more people had died and Churchill never makes a statement, I think its possible that he could have been toppled. If Labour is returned to government, do you think they could hold on for four or five years? Would their majority survive Attlee's resignation in '55, assuming it still occurs? Or would the Conservatives just come back into power in '55, leaving Eden in almost the exact same position?
 
I love it when you talk like a pedant.

Gets me going.

There actually isn't a 'Deputy Prime Minister'. When the role is used, it's mostly as a courtesy, such as for the deputy leader of the party, or the leader of a junior coalition party. So if anything were to happen to the Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister wouldn't actually take over like the Vice President does in the US.

Try to control yourself ;)
 
That's an odd term, but fixed.



It was only because of his public show of support for fighting the smog that Attlee didn't press the issue wasn't it? If more people had died and Churchill never makes a statement, I think its possible that he could have been toppled. If Labour is returned to government, do you think they could hold on for four or five years? Would their majority survive Attlee's resignation in '55, assuming it still occurs? Or would the Conservatives just come back into power in '55, leaving Eden in almost the exact same position?

It was Churchill's statement which saved him - an incredibly large amount of people died anyway.

If they win a majority which is a decent size they could certainly say five years - I struggle to see how Attlee's resignation would effect the majority. By 1957, in OTL Eden's health had knackered him so there's a chance even if the Tories won the election it wouldn't be under his leadership - perhaps Rab Butler instead
 
It was Churchill's statement which saved him - an incredibly large amount of people died anyway.

If they win a majority which is a decent size they could certainly say five years - I struggle to see how Attlee's resignation would effect the majority. By 1957, in OTL Eden's health had knackered him so there's a chance even if the Tories won the election it wouldn't be under his leadership - perhaps Rab Butler instead

This is actually a pretty big POD then. If he doesn't give that statement, which seems possible with his personality at the time, then Labour has a hold of Downing Street for maybe the rest of the 50s! I might make a mini-wikibox thing out of this, if someone else doesn't want to go further with it.
 
This is actually a pretty big POD then. If he doesn't give that statement, which seems possible with his personality at the time, then Labour has a hold of Downing Street for maybe the rest of the 50s! I might make a mini-wikibox thing out of this, if someone else doesn't want to go further with it.

One exciting thing about this as a POD (one I never realised would be a possibility) is that it could plausibly lead to a lengthy Hugh Gaitskell premiership.
 
One exciting thing about this as a POD (one I never realised would be a possibility) is that it could plausibly lead to a lengthy Hugh Gaitskell premiership.

He could potentially lead from '55 onwards until they lose again. Or, Gaitskell could never come to the leadership of the party. If Attlee leads from '52-'55 and steps down, that opens the gates for Gaitskell, Bevan, or even Griffiths to come into the leadership in their own right.
 
Attlee had planned on tabling a motion of no confidence on the matter - and support was on his side among the public. Coupled in woth Churchill's slim majority, the government could well have fell. An attempt could have been made to send for Anthony Eden, but if an election was called I imagine Labour would have won it.

After only a year out of office, it's questionable whether Attlee would have returned to government with any more new ideas or radical reforms. May have resigned earlier than Otl and handed over to Morrison/Bevan/Gaitskell - or have been voted out after four or five years in favour of an Eden led Tory party.
I doubt he would have resigned had Morrison looked to be a likely successor, that was one of the reasons for his staying on until 1955 in OTL. Really, I am unsure why people disliked Morrison so much.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I doubt he would have resigned had Morrison looked to be a likely successor, that was one of the reasons for his staying on until 1955 in OTL. Really, I am unsure why people disliked Morrison so much.
Morrison challenged Attlee for the Leadership a month after Attlee became leader, leading Attlee to always be suspicious Morrison was going to stab him in the back.
 
I doubt he would have resigned had Morrison looked to be a likely successor, that was one of the reasons for his staying on until 1955 in OTL. Really, I am unsure why people disliked Morrison so much.
Morrison was a man given to perfidy, having tried to oust Attlee a number of times when Clem so much as coughed in earshot of Morrison (most crucially in 1939 and 1945 - Attlee was an ill man, of course, and Morrison was itching to become leader/PM at the nearest possible time). Alongside that, Morrison was something of a 'moderniser' who didn't have much time for the unions or the intellectual left. Pissing off those two constituent parts of the labour movement didn't exactly make you anybody's pal back in the 1930s and 1940s, meaning Morrison was very good at isolating himself from the rest of the party. He also bent over backwards to please the business community, turning on steel nationalisation after being courted by Sir Andrew Rae Duncan.
 
Hold on, if the Prime Minister loses a vote of no confidence that doesn't mean a dissolution and an election - this could just see a coup ousting Churchill and replacing him with Eden/a compromise candidate (at a stretch perhaps Anderson although he's in the Lords so it's very unlikely except maybe as an interim thing).
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Hold on, if the Prime Minister loses a vote of no confidence that doesn't mean a dissolution and an election - this could just see a coup ousting Churchill and replacing him with Eden/a compromise candidate (at a stretch perhaps Anderson although he's in the Lords so it's very unlikely except maybe as an interim thing).
Convention up to that point dictates that if the Government loses a Vote of No Confidence, then the Government resigns. This would lead to one of two situations (I know I'm likely wrong, please do correct me where I am wrong); the Prime Minister seeks the dissolution of Parliament and a new election (like what MacDonald would do in 1924 and Callaghan would later do in 1979), or the opposition is invited to form Government... and then they seek dissolution of Parliament (as happened to Baldwin in 1924, Rosebery in 1895, and Salisbury in 1892 and 1886, Gladstone in 1886, 1885, and 1873...). Subverting this convention would be highly unlikely.
 
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