In light of Christie having left office today, this seems relevant. He was a rising star in the party and popular at this point. What if he decided to run? Could he have won or at the least lay groundwork to win in 2016?
2012 would've certainly been his best shot at the Presidency. I'm not sure if I think he would've been able to win against Barack Obama, but it would've probably been a closer race. In addition to his home state of New Jersey, I could see Chris Christie pulling Florida (perhaps with a Christie-Rubio ticket?) into the Republican column.
Christie's tough-guy person and (at the time) lack of baggage could mean he'd sail through a primary.
Florida likely goes red without Romney's Mormonism reducing evangelical turnout and Paul Ryan not scaring older voters.
I think Christie would target Northeastern States. I could see him doing very well in Philadelphia Suburbs. Give him Rob Portman as VP and I think that flips Pennsylvania and Ohio. Christie likely does well in New Hampshire too.
Flip those 4 states and it's 276-262 Christie-Obama.