WI Chretein and Martin Don't Cut The Deficit

IMF intervention is what happens. This would also test the limits of whether Reform could break through in Ontario, which I highly doubt.
 
Politically, if the deficit is still high by 1997, the Liberals are probably reduced to a minority, for one thing.
 
Which doesn't matter since the other parties will never support Manning. Same for Dief when he was in opposition.
 
Which doesn't matter since the other parties will never support Manning. Same for Dief when he was in opposition.

Though it could lead to PM Martin or whoever 6 years early, which would have its own effects. However, would a high deficit really be that unpopular? Weren't the OTL spending cuts unpopular with at least some important parts of the electorate?
 
Once the IMF intervenes, yes. Remember Lucien Bouchard was eliminating his deficit at the same time here in Quebec, "deficit zero." So Quebec would be OK with it, as would Harris-led Ontario and Liberal-led BC. If Martin doesn't want to cut the deficit (IOTL he initially didn't want Finance and Chretien talked him into it instead of Industry), then Manley or Goodale, much more decisive and unflappable Blue Liberals, would be finance minister.
 
Would it get so bad the IMF would need to intervene before 1997? Maybe Chretien wins a narrow majority or minority and then has to face the IMF. If he gets a minority, he'd probably be forced to resign, and he next PM(Martin) would be left to implement austerity measures and deal with the IMF. How would that go? Would the Liberals retain power? How harsh would the austerity program be?
 
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