WI Chirac assassinated in 2002?

IOTL a far-right terrorist took a potshot at his motorcade during Bastille Day celebrations. WI he'd killed Chirac? Who would win the presidential election? (held later that year along 1969 lines)
 
Quite hard to say.

Le Pen would be, of course, out of question, as Front National would be seen as the inspirator of Chirac's death. Sarkozy would not have enough popularity and support from the UMP to be a serious contender. the center-right candidate would be either Alain Juppé or Edouard Balladur, although guys like François Bayrou or even Philippe Seguin may have their luck.

On the other hand, the left would probably stop being a bunch of asses and have a common candidate : it's probably the high number of left-wing candidates that prevented Jospin to have enough votes to pass the fist round. I don't see Jospin coming back, though, for he had resigned two months ago. Even it's unlikely, I think the PS would have looked for a respected, above-the-parties guy, such as Rocard or Jacques Delors. Those two would have probably made it, given that the PS government was not that impopular in 2002.
 
Quite hard to say.

Le Pen would be, of course, out of question, as Front National would be seen as the inspirator of Chirac's death. Sarkozy would not have enough popularity and support from the UMP to be a serious contender. the center-right candidate would be either Alain Juppé or Edouard Balladur, although guys like François Bayrou or even Philippe Seguin may have their luck.

On the other hand, the left would probably stop being a bunch of asses and have a common candidate : it's probably the high number of left-wing candidates that prevented Jospin to have enough votes to pass the fist round. I don't see Jospin coming back, though, for he had resigned two months ago. Even it's unlikely, I think the PS would have looked for a respected, above-the-parties guy, such as Rocard or Jacques Delors. Those two would have probably made it, given that the PS government was not that impopular in 2002.

Very good analysis. Of course, the real interesting POD would be Jospin going on the second ballot and beating Chirac - and it would not be that hard to conceive. Not sure it would interest RogueBeaver, though, Jospin being an horrible Socialist!
 
Why? Jospin, like most of the PS, is a relative moderate. What would a Jospin presidency be like in both domestic and foreign policy?
 
Not dramatically different from Chirac's on foreign policy, except on one point: Jospin would not call a referendum on the European Treaty in 2005, and therefore France would ratify the treaty by a vote in the Congress (National Assembly and Senate). Domestically, very different - if only because Jospin would actually DO something during his term in office, contrary to Chirac.

First of all, who would be Prime minister? Honestly, I'm not sure. Strauss-Kahn is a possibility. Martine Aubry another one, but it's realy hard to say for sure - Jospin never confided on what he would have done if elected.
 
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Would a new Gaullist leader change France's stance on Iraq? (While Sarkozy did cozy up to Bush, Chirac (rightly or wrongly- he did have close ties to Saddam) did oppose the Iraq war (Of course, so did Jospin, Le Pen and the Commies...).
 
First of all, who would be Prime minister? Honestly, I'm not sure. Strauss-Kahn is a possibility. Martine Aubry another one, but it's realy hard to say for sure - Jospin never confided on what he would have done if elected.

I'd rather go with François Hollande. He's the man of the Party, he's acceptable for the Communists and the Greens, and he's competent enough to lead the government team. Strauss-Khan would have stayed in charge of the economy, definitely, altough he might be a good replacement for Hollande. I guess Aubry or Delanoe would have taken the leadership of the Socialists. I guess that Chevènement would have traded his support of Jospin in the election held after Chirac's assassination for a large Home secretary. Vedrine would be foreign minister, and he would be exactely the same as Villepin (ableit in a less flamboyant style) regarding Iraq.
 
Would a new Gaullist leader change France's stance on Iraq? (While Sarkozy did cozy up to Bush, Chirac (rightly or wrongly- he did have close ties to Saddam) did oppose the Iraq war (Of course, so did Jospin, Le Pen and the Commies...).

No.

First, Sarkozy is NOT a Gaullist. He's a traditional continental conservative who came to power using the powerful machine of the Gaullist party, and in France, for various reasons, conservatives and moderates (and christian democrats to some extent) don't share the premises of the Gaullist foreign policy. They are "atlantists"; i.e. pro-Us and pro comeback in the NATO.

Balladur put aside (but he had some dirty secrets shared with Iraq also), a right-wing President such as Juppé would have opposed the war anyway, for various reasons :

- the whole thing was clearly all about forgery, misjudgment, and programmed failure right from the start.

- the French emphasis on multilateralism was violently conflicting with the idea of a coalition of the good guys vs. teh evol Saddam.

- Geopolitically speaking, a weakened Saddam (who was a horrible bastard, nothing to discuss here) was far more useful to the Western powers and their local allies than a (probably) Shia-dominated Iraq who would open their doors to the Iranians. Not to mention that Turkey would be very pissed off in case of Kurdish autonomy.

- No sane French President would have opposed, on a foreign issue, the vast majority of French people, extremely hostile to a clearly useless and unjustified war, moreover led by the most hated POTUS in France since Nixon. Curiously, aside some circles within the right, the most enthusiastic supporters of war in Iraq were our neocons, usually former Trotskytes or Maoists who became hawkish in the 1980's to roll back the USSR.
 
I'd rather go with François Hollande.

I didn't mention Hollande because he lacks ministerial experience. I'm sure he would get an important post in the governement (Interior, Labor, or maybe National Education), and he has the right profile to be an mid-term Prime minister.

So we're left with either Strauss-Kahn or Aubry - or an outsider like Elisabeth Guigou.
 
I guess Aubry or Delanoe would have taken the leadership of the Socialists.

Not quite sure on that one: both had just been elected mayors (of Lille and Paris respectively), and had pledged to devote all their time to their cities.

On the other hand, Ségolène Royal would have been interested. Not sure Jospin would have backed her, but he might have left the issue to be decided internally.
 
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