WI: Chiquitos Affair (1825) escalates to war?

For some more elaborate reading.
The Chiquitos Affair of 1825 was a three-party diplomatic crisis, involving Simon Bolivar's republics of Gran Colombia and Bolivia, the United Provinces of La Plata, and the Empire of Brazil, that revolved around Brazil's invasion of the Chiquitos region of Bolivia, after the invitation of a local Spanish loyalist governor. The leadership of La Plata/Argentina urged Bolivar to retaliate by invading the Brazilian region of Mato Grosso.
The Argentines hoped that Bolivar would join them in an invasion of Brazil to partition the Empire, estabilish republicanism in Brazil, and raise La Plata and Gran Colombia to hegemonic power status in South America. British diplomats in Brazil were particularly fearful that the monarchy would collapse in the face of an invasion.
Bolivar, however, hesitated to intervene and participate in this gamble. The crisis was solved diplomatically.
But what if Bolivar had been a bolder leader in that occasion, and decided to invade Brazil in alliance with Argentina?
 
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...Aren't the logistics of invading and partitioning Brazil messy?
I'd wager that it would surely be, even if Bolivia is capable of fielding a substantial army (Argentina could help, but they were already suffering from the stress of the Cisplatine War).
For strategic support, the Bolivians and Argentines could count on a multitude of rebel groups dissatisfied with Pedro I's regime, such as the former supporters of Frei Caneca in the northeast, liberals, and anti-slavery elements, but their strength and reliability might be up to question.
If the republican coalition wins such a war, i'd expect the aggressors to just annex some border territories (such as Mato Grosso to Bolivia and Rio Grande do Sul to Argentina), while leaving a Brazilian Republic in place to control the rest.
There's also the issue of Portuguese loyalists in the north (Grão-Pará) to consider.
 
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Take into consideration that:

The Brazillian aristocracy doesn't like the emperor, but at least they know that he is not going to subvert the social order, they just wanted him to step back and let them control the government, they are not going to side with foreign republican abolitionists.

The many regions of Brazil are connected by sea and Brazil has a real Navy that could easily beat both the Argentine and Colombian navies combined in open sea, so there is no way that any invading force could reach the core of Brazil.

OTL Argentina and Uruguay lacked the power even to dislodge the Brazilians from Montevideo.

Britain didn't want Brazil to break.

What I think that is going to happen is that Bolivia will invade Brazil crossing the Guapore River, and take the fortifications in Mato Grosso. Brazil will pull out of Uruguay and use the Montevideo garrison to guard Rio Grande do Sul, meanwhile, the Argentinians are going to raid and occupy the western region of that province, around the Uruguay River. After the war, Brazil could cede the Region of Missões (a third to half of OTL Rio Grande do Sul), and some frontier territory around the Guapore River and the Pantanal Region. Unless there is a revolt in the Navy if the Navy rebels Brazil is screwed. Another possibility is Brazil rallying against the invaders, and that is going to be bad to Argentina and Uruguay, the Colombians could face some misfortune at the sea too.
 
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