WI Chinese disintegration early XIXth

Hi all,

Early XIXTH century was not a happy time for China with several large scale rebellion happening at the same time.

On top of that, European powers are strong enough for projection on a low hanging fruit.

And the cherry on the cake is a resurgent Vietnam with the Gia Long unification and reorganization. Vietnam has tried a couple time to get fringe territories in Southern China.

So what if rebellions get worse and Gia Long decides to have a go at Yunnan and the South coast?

Is that remotely possible? Would we see a Chinese rump state with competiting warlord territories?
 
Why? Nguyen Vietnam wasn't that disloyal to the Qing and there are much easier targets to the south.
True about Cambodia but the heartland of the Viet was to the North, it would be an easy target for a propaganda effort to unify everyone. Viets trying to get a piece when China is seen as weak and/or distracted has precedents, like with Ho Qui Ly
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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How soon and how deeply the Europeans get involved is going to be highly dependent on how early in the 19th century we are talking about. Will this this start pre-1815 or post-1815?
 
How soon and how deeply the Europeans get involved is going to be highly dependent on how early in the 19th century we are talking about. Will this this start pre-1815 or post-1815?
I would imagine pre-1815. So yeah, limited European involvement, but as I understand, European empires in the Indies were acting fairly independently from the Metropole.

And a few ships here and there can do a lot. On the other hand, maybe the Chinese could use a hand or some supplies? For a price of course
 
I would think that the Russian would really be the major threat at that point. If China end up in a warlord period in the early 19th century, it gives the Russians a lot of low fruits to pick over several decades, I have a hard time seeing Xinjiant, outer and inner Mongolia and Manchuria not ending up Russian fiefs, open to Russian settlers, and Russia will likely push farther south, which will force other European power to takes as much of China or set up local vassal to avoid the Russians conquer it all. So let's say that Russia begin to move in, the British panic and conquer as much as possible, leading the French, but maybe also other European powers to expand in China. I think pretty much every European power with a presence in China (Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Austria, Denmark, Sweden and USA) could theorectical take parts of the collapsing empire in panic over being cut off from the Chinese trade.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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of course the French don't yet have a base in Vietnam yet to participate, although in Gia Long, might they have an ally?
 
Jurgen,
As much as Russia would have liked to have plucked the Manchurian and Chinese fruits and theoretically had territory all the way to the Bering Strait, until the dual inventions of the railroad and telegraph, the Far East was simply too far away to administer much less actually use to mount any offensive attacks on established nations. Yes, it DID conquer the Vladivostok area in the 1860's and quickly built it up as a vital seaport and base. However; I seriously doubt Russia could have attempted that in the pre rail/-telegraph age even with Manchu China being an ailing, unwieldy power.
 
of course the French don't yet have a base in Vietnam yet to participate, although in Gia Long, might they have an ally?
If an isolated Irish officer hadn't given a veto, the French would have been sending a fairly big army.
Gia Long then worked to not be influenced by the French and Western powers.
Wasn't the Nguyen regime pretty focused on the center (Hue) and the south (Mekong Delta where the founder came from)? I vaguely remember people from the north getting pissed about the Nguyen being biased against them.
Then an expedition in a disintegrating China could help Gia Long placate the Trinh nobility. If it's low risk of course
 
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