WI: Chinese didnt cross the Yalu?

Typo

Banned
China takes Taiwan back - historically the PLA's intervention was why the US decided to defend Taiwan in the first place.
No, I don't see how the PLA is magically going to generate the naval power to take Taiwan
 
^Also, there was a very large indigenous Communist presence in Taiwan. In addition, the strait was short enough that it could be crossed in non-seaworthy boats.
 

Cook

Banned
^Also, there was a very large indigenous Communist presence in Taiwan. In addition, the strait was short enough that it could be crossed in non-seaworthy boats.

I take it that was a typo and Taiwan should be Hainan.

Drink more Coffee.
;)
 
The strait wasn't just narrow enough for small boats.... Supposedly some of the Communists infiltrated the island to prepare the way by swimming there.

Try that with Taiwan!
 

Valdemar II

Banned
United Korea could by now be the third biggest world economy, with Northeast Asia rivalling-if not passing-Europe. The Yalu River DMZ would still be there but probably not as hot as in, say, 1980.
.

Not really South Korea was always heavier populated than the north, so we would be unlikely to see more than 70 million at most and likely only around 60 millions. Japan for all it booming still have a lower GDP than France or even the unified Germany (and a lot lower than West Germany alone). Modern South Korea has a GDP which are lower than Czech Republic. So no while likely richer both in general GDP and per capita, Korea would still be barely be in the top 10 over the world biggest economies.
 
The North was economically stronger then the South for quite a time as it holds a lot of coal and iron. These resources would see a quicker Korean industrialisation.

The bulk of China's army would probably be deployed in expectation of war with Korea. The aforementioned lack of a Sino-Soviet split would also mean more freed-up soldiers for China to play around with. The Korean-Chinese border will be massively fortified.

Stronger support from China and the Soviet Union for the South Asian communists to avenge the failure to expand into East Asia and a more confident U.S will mean a bigger and bloodier Vietnam War (a more confident U.S population may mean public support for the war is stronger probably resulting in an eventual American victory but at a high cost). No Chinese invasion of Vietnam if the NVA win (they need all the allies in Asia they can get) or if the US/South win (probably not worth it to Mao to risk war over though China will desperately seek more allies to counterbalance anti-Communist Korea and Vietnam).
 
Not really South Korea was always heavier populated than the north, so we would be unlikely to see more than 70 million at most and likely only around 60 millions. Japan for all it booming still have a lower GDP than France or even the unified Germany (and a lot lower than West Germany alone). Modern South Korea has a GDP which are lower than Czech Republic. So no while likely richer both in general GDP and per capita, Korea would still be barely be in the top 10 over the world biggest economies.

Huh? South Korea has 48.875 million people and the North has 24.051 million. And millions have died over the years becuase of the North's mismangement that would live in a unified Korea.

72.926 million x South Korea's nominal GDP capita of $20,165 is $1.47 Trillion. They'd by #8th, just a hair ahead of Spain.

If we go PPP per capita of $29,790 then their GDP is $2.17 Trillion and would be 6-8th depending on the list.
 
Not really South Korea was always heavier populated than the north, so we would be unlikely to see more than 70 million at most and likely only around 60 millions
Huh:confused::confused::confused:
The south pre WW2 was a un-developed Rural area with only one real city [Seoul] The Industry/Cities [and Population] was in the north.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
During the Vietnam War US will invade North Vietnam since Chinese intervention will not be held to the same regard. This will result in direct confrontation between Chinese and US forces in Vietnam, much as it did IOTL Korea. The Vietnam War will thus be much larger, encompassing all of Laos and Cambodia with a larger role for conventional warfare.
This would prompt butterflies like you wouldn't believe. OTL, the Vietnamese, both north and south fought centuries of wars with China. Most recently they fought a war in the late 70's. They hate the Chinese worse than they hate the US. They're more worried about the Chinese than they are the US. The US mainland is across an ocean. China is right next door.

i'd look for the NVA to ask the US for a cease fire, and request US help against the Chinese. The US was committed to a two Vietnam solution. At no time was it ever US Policy to exterminate the North as a nation. NVA troops would have been willing maybe even eager to fight beside the US military against the Chinese.

China didn't do well against the North Vietnamese. While they inflicted heavier casualties, they really never achieved the strategic objective of removing Vietnamese forces from Cambodia.

Going against both Vietnamese and US troops, the Chinese would take horrendous loses. Some estimates of the Korean war place Chinese KIA at over 1,000,000. i have no idea how many wounded. With better weapons and a much better advantage in US Air Power such a move by the Chinese could get to be suicidal.
 

Cook

Banned
The US was committed to a two Vietnam solution. At no time was it ever US Policy to exterminate the North as a nation.

It was not US policy to exterminate North and reunify Vietnam because they were continuing with the Truman Doctrine and because of the experience of Korea when they’d unsuccessfully overstepped the mark and tried to reunify the country. With the experience of successfully concluding the Korean War in roughly eight months and without Chinese intervention they’d certainly consider invading North Vietnam and punishing the aggressors.

This would prompt butterflies like you wouldn't believe. OTL, the Vietnamese, both north and south fought centuries of wars with China. Most recently they fought a war in the late 70's. They hate the Chinese worse than they hate the US. They're more worried about the Chinese than they are the US. The US mainland is across an ocean. China is right next door.

This overlooks the considerable assistance the China provided to North Vietnam during the indo-China wars.

That they Vietnamese had previously fought wars against Chinese dominance and would subsequently did not prevent collusion with the Chinese Communists against the French and American Imperialists, Machiavelli had nothing on those dudes.

Could you stop using green please, it’s hard for some of us to read, especially with that font type.
 
The talk of Vietnam is all well and good, but by the time American intervention (or lack thereof) comes around things may already have come to a head.

China's less confident and feels encroached on, but is still close to Russia. Russia's outright paranoid and feels encroached on by Nazis, but still has a solid claim to leadership of world communism.

The US is still riding the high from World War II. A few generals arguing that a war to roll back the rascals is only getting worse. No domino theory, here. Instead they probably have a doctrine of picking away at world communism one state at a time whenever large scale war can be avoided. They probably have no realistic conception of how that works, but nevermind.

By 1956, the US will likely have overthrown Soviet-friendly governments in Guatemala and Iran, and created a new unfriendly one in South Vietnam. Perhaps more. All of this will add up to aggression to the Communist Bloc, who will be getting increasingly skeptical of appeasement.

A political revolution in Hungary remains very likely in this timeline's 1955-57. Even if the exact events of OTL fail to occur, the dissatisfaction with the regime was overwhelming, and the changes from our TL would seem to lean more in favor of crisis than against. We need to have an idea who is president in when the crisis occurs. There will be a strong temptation to make inflammatory statements and lean on the Soviets to relinquish Hungary.

The Soviets considered just that in OTL, but it's unlikely. Probably events resemble those we experienced historically, but with the perception of them very different. The Soviets and Chinese will feel hemmed in, while the US "learns" that only robust action and serious threats can stem the tide of Communism.

Castro may not come to power in Cuba, but if it does he will probably turn left. If he turns left the Americans will probably sponsor an unsuccessful putsch. If the Americans sponsor an invasion he will probably turn to the Soviets for protection....

So many possibilities. Unfortunately most of them seem to end in World War, but there you go.
 
At the risk of getting repetitive Harry Truman gets a second full term and fewer lives are lost. Maybe the domino theory doesn't take off and there is no Vietnam war other than the one between the Vietmin and the French and Ho Che Minh becomes head of a united Vietnam and possibly is streered into the Western camp or maybe that's wishful thinking.

The pioblem is it would necessitate the Chinese coming to their senses and ditching North Korea as they are on the verge of doing now. The Chinese are now acknowledging they were mistaken to get involved in Korea unfortunately it is nearly sixty years too late,.
 

Eurofed

Banned
By 1956, the US will likely have overthrown Soviet-friendly governments in Guatemala and Iran, and created a new unfriendly one in South Vietnam. Perhaps more. All of this will add up to aggression to the Communist Bloc, who will be getting increasingly skeptical of appeasement.

Those governments in Guatemala and Iran had taken an anticolonial stance against the interests of the UK and USA, but could not really be described as would-be allies of the Soviet block, so they don't matter. As for South Vietnam, nothing different from OTL.

A political revolution in Hungary remains very likely in this timeline's 1955-57. Even if the exact events of OTL fail to occur, the dissatisfaction with the regime was overwhelming, and the changes from our TL would seem to lean more in favor of crisis than against. We need to have an idea who is president in when the crisis occurs. There will be a strong temptation to make inflammatory statements and lean on the Soviets to relinquish Hungary.

Yeah, but it won't be limited to Hungary. Anti-Communist and anti-Soviet revolts are scheduled to take place in East Germany, Poland, and Hungary in 1953-57. Stalinism has been quite a heavy joke to Eastern Europe, and the death of the tyrant and first tentative steps to Destalinization are going to see several countries try and cast it off.

Castro may not come to power in Cuba, but if it does he will probably turn left. If he turns left the Americans will probably sponsor an unsuccessful putsch. If the Americans sponsor an invasion he will probably turn to the Soviets for protection....

ITTL, Castro shall never be allowed to entrench. As soon as he makes starts to becoem antagonistic to the USA, he shall be overthrown by US military intervention. Either by a better prepared and supported Bay of Pigs operation, which succeeds, or by US direct invasion immediately afterwards if it fails.
 
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Effects on Japan:
The economic miracle is delayed and retarded.
MacArthur remains SCAP and the occupation doesn't end until the mid-50s
Yokota AFB is rather smaller.
British opposition stands and Japan doesn't get temporarily admitted to GATT early.
The National Police Reserve does get turned into the National Safety Forces, but not the Self Defense Forces. Also, the NSF stays small.

Effects on the USMC:
The Battle of Chosin Reservoir doesn't occur and USMC lore.
There are fewer USMC air assests, and the USMC stays a smaller force in general. Note that this will affect changes in a number of US interventions down the line. (Good example: Tom Leher's "Send the Marines" would probably still exist but with lyrical changes.)
 
Those governments in Guatemala and Iran had taken an anticolonial stance against the interests of the UK and USA, but could not really be described as would-be allies of the Soviet block, so they don't matter. As for South Vietnam, nothing different from OTL.

Yeah, but it won't be limited to Hungary. Anti-Communist and anti-Soviet revolts are scheduled to take place in East Germany, Poland, and Hungary in 1953-57. Stalinism has been quite a heavy joke to Eastern Europe, and the death of the tyrant and first tentative steps to Destalinization are going to see several countries try and cast it off.

Shows me to go from memory. Yeah, I was recounting OTL events.

Eastern Europe's turned into quite the flashpoint in this scenario, methinks, what with such levels of discontent and an America that thinks it can nibble bits off at the edges.

ITTL, Castro shall never be allowed to entrench. As soon as he makes starts to becoem antagonistic to the USA, he shall be overthrown by US military intervention. Either by a better prepared and supported Bay of Pigs operation, which succeeds, or by US direct invasion immediately afterwards if it fails.

On reflection I agree.
 
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