WI: China's CCP erupts in civil war in 1989?

Apparently the Tiananmen Square protests of '89 (as well as the general political climate) caused such political turmoil that factions within the Chinese Communist Party, which controls the People's Liberation Army directly, began to turn against each other. Even today, there are cliques in the CCP that scheme against one another.

What would China be like today if there was a second civil war in the 20th century? How would this war go? Is the scenario even plausible?
 
Sepe
Apparently the Tiananmen Square protests of '89 (as well as the general political climate) caused such political turmoil that factions within the Chinese Communist Party, which controls the People's Liberation Army directly, began to turn against each other. Even today, there are cliques in the CCP that scheme against one another.

What would China be like today if there was a second civil war in the 20th century? How would this war go? Is the scenario even plausible?

Seperatism would come into play, too. What would become of the nukes, would the various factions use them against each other ? What about North Korea ?
 
It could happen if the CCP waits long enough to suppress the protests. IOTL they had already spread to other cities; a week or more could be decisive. I'm not well-versed on the details of how the Politburo made the decision to crack down, but I understand there were people who were for and against (the against side got purged). If the CCP could be paralyzed for even a bit longer, you could have the hardliner faction resort to military force without consensus, and thus create splits in the PLA itself. IOTL it was reported that some generals refused to turn on the people, and had to be replaced. In this scenario it could really become fragmented.

As for the effects of a civil war, my impression is that it would be relatively low-intensity, except perhaps in places with large numbers of ethnic minorities. Communism is only still compelling as an ideology IOTL because of the stability the CCP brings; if a war has broken out I don't think that people and soldiers would fight desperately to support its political doctrine. We would probably see some kind of military junta emerge victorious after a short flurry of confrontations at strongholds around the country; in this sense it would appear similar to the events of 1911 where General Yuan Shikai jumped on teh anti-Qing bandwagon and placed himself in the presidency. Unlike the Warlord era, China in 1990 wouldn't be fragmented due to the strong organizational tradition of the CCP and the strength of Han Chinese identity. The greater harm would be that done to the economic progress made during the 1980s—it would set China back ten or twenty years, which could be crippling.
 
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It could happen if the CCP waits long enough to suppress the protests. IOTL they had already spread to other cities; a week or more could be decisive. I'm not well-versed on the details of how the Politburo made the decision to crack down, but I understand there were people who were for and against (the against side got purged). If the CCP could be paralyzed for even a bit longer, you could have the hardliner faction resort to military force without consensus, and thus create splits in the PLA itself. IOTL it was reported that some generals refused to turn on the people, and had to be replaced. In this scenario it could really become fragmented.

As for the effects of a civil war, my impression is that it would be relatively low-intensity, except perhaps in places with large numbers of ethnic minorities. Communism is only still compelling as an ideology IOTL because of the stability the CCP brings; if a war has broken out I don't think that people and soldiers would fight desperately to support its political doctrine. We would probably see some kind of military junta emerge victorious after a short flurry of confrontations at strongholds around the country; in this sense it would appear similar to the events of 1911 where General Yuan Shikai jumped on teh anti-Qing bandwagon and placed himself in the presidency. Unlike the Warlord era, China in 1990 wouldn't be fragmented due to the strong organizational tradition of the CCP and the strength of Han Chinese identity. The greater harm would be that done to the economic progress made during the 1980s—it would set China back ten or twenty years, which could be crippling.

Well, I imagine it may be low intensity at first, then quickly escalate: North Korea has only one major ally and it's China. If the CCP fell, it would mean the DPRK would lose a major ally and possibly end up sandwiched between two considerably more liberal countries. I imagine that they would do whatever they can to preserve the status quo, even if they don't necessarily have the strength at this time to win a major engagement.
 
Well, I imagine it may be low intensity at first, then quickly escalate: North Korea has only one major ally and it's China. If the CCP fell, it would mean the DPRK would lose a major ally and possibly end up sandwiched between two considerably more liberal countries. I imagine that they would do whatever they can to preserve the status quo, even if they don't necessarily have the strength at this time to win a major engagement.
Being far smaller, there isn't much the DPRK can do in the situation except try to ingratiate itself with whomever seems to be winning.
The majority of Chinese cadres at this point are actually rather apolitical-- they just side with whatever benefits their personal influence. IOTL going into business seemed the best thing to do. Now, with the authority of the CCP being successfully challenged, the PLA would hold most of the cards. It would be able to offer protection to defected cadres, while suppressing/promoting various sections of the liberal movement as it sees fit.
 
Being far smaller, there isn't much the DPRK can do in the situation except try to ingratiate itself with whomever seems to be winning.
The majority of Chinese cadres at this point are actually rather apolitical-- they just side with whatever benefits their personal influence. IOTL going into business seemed the best thing to do. Now, with the authority of the CCP being successfully challenged, the PLA would hold most of the cards. It would be able to offer protection to defected cadres, while suppressing/promoting various sections of the liberal movement as it sees fit.
It was my understanding that the leaders of the CCP and the leaders of the PLA were one and the same.
 
It was my understanding that the leaders of the CCP and the leaders of the PLA were one and the same.

Not exactly. The CCP and PLA were tied closely for sure, but if anything those ties were more tenuous than they had been at almost any point in Chinese history prior. These were, mind you, a part of Deng's reform program, since he gave the army more autonomy as part of the modernisation campaign. Also the Party mechanism was increasingly being concentrated in actual politicians rather than armchair generals, partly because of Lin Biao's actions and responsibility in the Cultural Revolution but also because so many senior military commanders were purged, aging towards retirement and/or dying out. That said it's not untrue that certain figures and factions in the Party wielded considerable influence over the military - compare and contrast the powers of Li Peng and Zhao Ziyang and their actions at the time of the protests and eventually the crackdown for example. Deng himself also commanded a lot of military authority not just because he was head of state, but also because he was a Long March survivor and commander.
 
Not exactly. The CCP and PLA were tied closely for sure, but if anything those ties were more tenuous than they had been at almost any point in Chinese history prior. These were, mind you, a part of Deng's reform program, since he gave the army more autonomy as part of the modernisation campaign. Also the Party mechanism was increasingly being concentrated in actual politicians rather than armchair generals, partly because of Lin Biao's actions and responsibility in the Cultural Revolution but also because so many senior military commanders were purged, aging towards retirement and/or dying out. That said it's not untrue that certain figures and factions in the Party wielded considerable influence over the military - compare and contrast the powers of Li Peng and Zhao Ziyang and their actions at the time of the protests and eventually the crackdown for example. Deng himself also commanded a lot of military authority not just because he was head of state, but also because he was a Long March survivor and commander.

Interesting! Thank you for the enlightenment!
 
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