WI: China won the First Sino-Japanese War

just like the title say i want to know what would happen if China had beaten Japan. Things like what if any territorial changes would there be?

would the Qing dynasty die in 1912?

what things would happen differantly in Asia & the Pacific up to say 1945?
 

Cook

Banned
If the first Sino-Japanese War goes China’s way the most immediate result is that the Russo-Japanese War will not take place; the effect of this on internal Russian politics would be enormous.

The effect on naval engineering would be significant too I should think; with no battle of the Tsushima Straits the theory of an all big gun ship would not be so immediately and overwhelmingly vindicated, the Dreadnaught class and battleships in general might be delayed.

The Anglo-Japanese Alliance would never have been signed, not as an alliance between equals at any rate.
 
Well you need to look at the immediate effect - the war was basically about hegemony and control of Korea, so a Chinese victory would reinforce the vassalship of Korea to the imperial throne. You would thus not the delusion of grandeur in Seoul that led to the short-lived if highly aspirational Empire of Korea.

Japan has been taken down a peg and will take time to rebound to even where they were - they will rebound, but its a shock and they probably have missed their chance.

China may or may not now be on a collision course with Russia since the Russo-Japanese war effectively came from a collision of interests, prime among which was the question of rights in Korea, including along the Yalu.

Forgot all what I was going to say before my meeting started now; ah well

Beset Rearguards
Grey Wolf
 
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Well you need to look at the immediate effect - the war was basically about hegemony and control of Korea, so a Chinese victory would reinforce the vassalship of Korea to the imperial throne. You would thus not the delusion of grandeur in Seoul that led to the short-lived if highly aspirational Empire of Korea.

Japan has been taken down a peg and will take time to rebound to even where they were - they will rebound, but its a shock and they probably have missed their chance.

China may or may not now be on a collision course with Russia since the Russo-Japanese war effectively came from a collision of interests, prime among which was the question of rights in Korea, including along the Yalu.

Forgot all what I was going to say before my meeting started now; ah well

Beset Rearguards
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Sounds fairly likely and the last one could be a big one. If China gets into a rumble with Russia I can't see Russia losing but I could see other nations, most noticeably Britain seeking to intervene to protect it's own economic interests and preventing the Russians gaining too much territory.

You might just see an Anglo-Chinese alliance, although this is probably less likely as China is far less modernised culturally and unlikely [the old regime anyway] would look for an alliance.

Could still see an alliance with Japan as the latter will be even more eager for an ally and Britain will be looking to rein in Russian interests. However as you say likely to be less an alliance of equals. [The possibility however of China opposing such an alliance between it's main trading partner/investor and a recent and bitter rival].

If a Sino-Russian war occurred about 1904 then that could scupper the spreading of the entente to resolving differences between Britain and Russia, who are likely to be at loggerheads. That would make the alliance system in Europe a lot more complex as Britain could stay a wild-card.

Just thought as to what a Chinese victory would do to the Boxer rebellion. Suspect it wouldn't be avoided and might be more likely and earlier because Chinese emotions and confidence are heightened. More dangerously it might give the dowager the confidence to support the rebels against the Europeans openly, rather than staying on the fence. That is likely to have hasty effects in China, especially if it means the foreign quarter falls and there is a massacre.

Steve
 
Just thought as to what a Chinese victory would do to the Boxer rebellion. Suspect it wouldn't be avoided and might be more likely and earlier because Chinese emotions and confidence are heightened. More dangerously it might give the dowager the confidence to support the rebels against the Europeans openly, rather than staying on the fence. That is likely to have hasty effects in China, especially if it means the foreign quarter falls and there is a massacre.

Why would there be a Boxer rebellion? China won't have suffered a humiliating defeat and lost its influence in Korea or Taiwan. The regime will not be discredited.
 
Why would there be a Boxer rebellion? China won't have suffered a humiliating defeat and lost its influence in Korea or Taiwan. The regime will not be discredited.

Faeelin

It won't have suffered that defeat but it would still have the problem of being an economic satellite of the western powers and been forced to make concessions that it finds humiliating. Avoiding defeat against Japan would avoid only one set-back and might heighten expectations that China can take on the modern powers.

It would however have avoided the problem of the indemnity that China had imposed on it after the defeat.

Steve
 
Faeelin

It won't have suffered that defeat but it would still have the problem of being an economic satellite of the western powers and been forced to make concessions that it finds humiliating. Avoiding defeat against Japan would avoid only one set-back and might heighten expectations that China can take on the modern powers.

It would however have avoided the problem of the indemnity that China had imposed on it after the defeat.

Steve

People don't revolt because their expectations for their government are raised. They revolt when those expectations are disappointed.

Given a Chinese victory, the Imperial government is in a very good position relative to OTL. Honestly, it probably bought itself a decade's leeway at a stroke.

I'm skeptical of a potential for conflict with Russia - the Russo-Japanese War was more about colliding interests than overlapping ones: The earlier defeat of China had created a vacuum and both powers were moving to fill it. If there's a general European conflict in the next generation I'd expect China to repudiate the spheres of influence and get going on explosive growth before mid-century.
 
Admiral Matt

As I understand it rebellion is a bit inaccurate in reference to the Boxers as weren't they agree not about the formal Chinese government but about western influence/dominance over the same. Their expectations have been raised for China being able to do something about the other powers that impinge on the empire and hence that might mean their even more confident that they and a seemingly stronger empire can stand up to the foreign barbarians.

Good point about Manchuria and a clash with Russia. It is less likely that a China that has defended it's interests, even against a 2nd rate Asian power [as many will view the clash in the west] will be challenge in Manchuria that a Japan that has won a victory and prompted a vaccuum.

Steve

People don't revolt because their expectations for their government are raised. They revolt when those expectations are disappointed.

Given a Chinese victory, the Imperial government is in a very good position relative to OTL. Honestly, it probably bought itself a decade's leeway at a stroke.

I'm skeptical of a potential for conflict with Russia - the Russo-Japanese War was more about colliding interests than overlapping ones: The earlier defeat of China had created a vacuum and both powers were moving to fill it. If there's a general European conflict in the next generation I'd expect China to repudiate the spheres of influence and get going on explosive growth before mid-century.
 
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