WI: China surrenders 1938

What if the 1937 invasion fared even better for the Japanese and China sued for peace. A new Chinese regime pledge support for the East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere and forms an alliance against Communism.

It would be reminiscent of Vichy France IOTL with a collaboration government confronting a homegrown resistance. How does WWII unfold? Instead of a Burma theater, would the war spread to India? Japanese invasion of Russia with Chinese levies?
 
I think the problem is which China? If its the Communist Chinese, the Nationalists won't accept it and vice-versa
 

bard32

Banned
What if the 1937 invasion fared even better for the Japanese and China sued for peace. A new Chinese regime pledge support for the East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere and forms an alliance against Communism.

It would be reminiscent of Vichy France IOTL with a collaboration government confronting a homegrown resistance. How does WWII unfold? Instead of a Burma theater, would the war spread to India? Japanese invasion of Russia with Chinese levies?

China never would have surrendered. Generalissimo Chiang-kai Shek, the
President of China from 1925 to 1975, would have burned most of China, and
moved the capital from Nanking, (Nanjing today,) to Chunking, (Chunjing, today.) Even IATL. The POD being 1937, would the Japanese have gotten as far
as Chunking, by 1938?
 
China never would have surrendered. Generalissimo Chiang-kai Shek, the
President of China from 1925 to 1975, would have burned most of China, and
moved the capital from Nanking, (Nanjing today,) to Chunking, (Chunjing, today.) Even IATL. The POD being 1937, would the Japanese have gotten as far
as Chunking, by 1938?

ARGH! ROMANIZE CORRECTLY! I'M SICK OF PEOPLE USING THE WRONG KIND OF ROMANIZATION FOR CHINESE!

It's Chongqing.
 
Is there a guide for properly romanizing Chinese, so that the pronounciation is as close as possible to mandarin?
 

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
Is there a guide for properly romanizing Chinese, so that the pronounciation is as close as possible to mandarin?

Pinyin is more logical and easier to learn, but does not show how to pronounce things easily for English speakers. Wade-Giles is more difficult and less logical, but shows pronunciation more easily for English speakers. There are other systems as well, but they are not used as much with regards to Mandarin. Pinyin is the official one, but many find Wade-Giles to be more elegant amongst other things.


Sargon
 
Chiang Kai-shek threatened several times to make a separate peace with Japan to pressure FDR for more aid. I don't think a Chinese surrender is impossible. Specially considering the Japanese did setup a puppet regime in Nanking under their chosen leader who was a big wig in the Chinese government himself. If Chiang was killed, or otherwise persuaded its best to go along and spare the country from a ruinous war through which he could lose power, then it's entirely possible China could sue for peace.

Of course there would still be an active resistance. There was in Vichy France as well.
 
Actually, if Chiang Kai-Shek sought peace or surrendered, he would instantly have lost all power. If he sought peace, he'd be deposed by one of his many enemies. If he surrendered, he'd become a powerless puppet. And even if Chiang surrendered, it's more likely that he'd be replaced by a leader who is more opposed to the Japanese, and would continue the struggle. Also, there were still a dozen of warlords who still held influence. Along with the Communists, there would be plenty of organized resistance to the Japanese invasion for years.
 
Actually, if Chiang Kai-Shek sought peace or surrendered, he would instantly have lost all power.

Okay say he's dead. POD the Xi'an incident in late 1936 when Chiang was kidnapped by his own officers. Wang Jingwei launch a rescue attempt which gets Chiang killed. Wang then takes control of the government and becomes a co-belligerent of Japan after a brief war in 1937. He blames defeat on the Communists and uncooperative Nationalists, makes the argument that China would benefit from the stability of the East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere and Japanese assistance. His government cooperates with Japan to eliminate his Communist and Nationalist enemies.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Jingwei
 
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it isnt easy-to keep China. There would be partisan war.Maybe, Japan would attack Soviet Union,but after halhin-Gol they realised, that it could be big disaster for japanese army. If USA demanded withdrawal of the forces from China, it could be Pacific war.
 
If Wang Jingwei, a staunch believer in pan-Asianism and a Japanophile, had taken over the Guomindang after Sun Yat-sen's death, then it's probable China would have folded after a brief conquest, with Wang continuing to rule as a Japanese puppet. Of course, the Communists' popularity would skyrocket even more than it did in OTL and the Puppet and Japanese forces would still face a quagmire fighting warlords, bandits, and guerillas. Japan still loses the Pacific War in the end.
 
There is no chance that Japan could have beaten the Russians in Siberia. They did not have the tanks, logistics and will to slug it out up there.

Changes due to Japan not having to fight China:
1. A larger Russian force in Siberia. Stalin has to worry about Japan a bit more.
This makes it easier for Germany to make it to Moscow (I doubt it's a big change in what actually happened).

2. No pearl harbor. The vote to goto war was very close in the first place, without the threat of running out of oil/steel causing them to make stupid moves America would not enter the war in early 1942.

3. America my not enter WW2 at all without Pearl Harbor to force them in. The peace at any cost crowd/keep us out of war crowd was very strong in the US. This would likely lead to Germany beating Russia by 1944 (Russia running out of men, not having enough advanced gear being shipped over by America).

4. FDR gets us into the war with Germany anyways (He was trying really hard all the while he was complaining on keeping us out of war).
America has only ever lost a war because public support for the war was low. The anti war crowd (like Limberg) would be out in force making our war effort much less total. This might make America skeptical to giving up after a bad defeat or setback. Total output for the war would be less as well.

Conclusion, China losing has a decent chance of allowing Germany to defeat Russia and win WW2. Though they might still have been bleed white doing it.
 
What about a Japanese push into Burma and India through China in late 1940 with the support of Chinese levies? Wouldn't that force Britain to seek peace with Hitler?
 
What about a Japanese push into Burma and India through China in late 1940 with the support of Chinese levies? Wouldn't that force Britain to seek peace with Hitler?

no. Britain would have fought on at almost any cost, and India is probably too big for Japan to conquer, especially if they're trying to keep a lid on China. The Chinese levies would be ineffective; look how well the Wang Jingwei and Manchukuo troops performed in OTL. btw, good luck trying to get unmotivated conscripts to cross the Himalayas.
 
Changes due to Japan not having to fight China:
1. A larger Russian force in Siberia. Stalin has to worry about Japan a bit more.This makes it easier for Germany to make it to Moscow (I doubt it's a big change in what actually happened).

Stalin kept a significant amount of forces in the region anyway.

2. No pearl harbor. The vote to goto war was very close in the first place, without the threat of running out of oil/steel causing them to make stupid moves America would not enter the war in early 1942.

Would Japan still act stupid, and would there still be an embargo?

It is very, very, very, very easy for me to see a Japan that "won" in China getting victory disease, and the rest spirals.
 
no. Britain would have fought on at almost any cost, and India is probably too big for Japan to conquer, especially if they're trying to keep a lid on China. The Chinese levies would be ineffective; look how well the Wang Jingwei and Manchukuo troops performed in OTL. btw, good luck trying to get unmotivated conscripts to cross the Himalayas.

Japan doesn't have to conquer India, there were plenty of Indian nationalists fighting with Japan IOTL. There would be a lot more if the IJA makes it into India. The threat of such an invasion would make rejecting a settlement with the Axis a harder sell for Churchill.

You can't extrapolate the ineffectiveness of levies like that. In China the puppet armies were doing counter insurgency against their own people. This sort of army is never motivated, look at Iraq. OTOH being levied to support a professional army in external operations is a different story. Korean levies were quite important to Japanese forces in China.
 
Would Japan still act stupid, and would there still be an embargo?

It is very, very, very, very easy for me to see a Japan that "won" in China getting victory disease, and the rest spirals.


It would be pretty hard to talk congress into keeping/expanding the embargo if the war is over by 1938. China would be a puppet and American business would use that as an excuse to start selling to Japan again. This would give Japan a few years to stock up on what they need before they enter the fray again.

The Japanese high command well knew how powerful the US was. They simply did not see another choice besides taking a chance and knocking America out early or having to give up in China. It was a mater or not being willing to back down (losing face and all that) that lead to their overreaching.
 
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