WI China not excluded from the ISS program?

As the title indicates, I'm curious to hear from the board's resident aerospace enthusiasts how they think the ISS would've panned out had the Chinese not been excluded from participation by the US. Might China still pursue their own independent space station program?
 
If China had become part of the ISS consortium, then we would have Long March rockets launching supply spacecraft to the ISS, China possibly adding smaller laboratory modules to ISS, and there would be regular Shenzhou flights to ISS maybe twice a year.
 
Shenzhou would certainly have flown more or less as is. Assuming participation doesn't increase funding I'd think they would probably only fly about once a year and it would be more along the lines of supplementary Chinese crew members being aboard for a few weeks at a time (longer than the old Russian visitors and current tourists who come up for a crew rotation, but quite a bit less than a full tour). Given the requirements placed on vessels before they dock I'd think that by today's date we'd probably only have had one or two Chinese missions so far, with nothing happening until some sort of docking away from the station had been demonstrated. If I had to guess there would be a Chinese module in the works, but it would be a few years out still, taking the scientific bits of the currently planned station and negating the need for independent flight capability.

All that said, frankly I question whether it would make sense for China. I would quite like to see them participating, but all things considered an independent program seems better suited to their goals. That said, I don't particularly understand their intent to build a full station either, enhanced Tiangong like labs seem more suitable. Basically Chinese VISITS, starting now that they have shown an independent capability, possibly even docking a Tiangong to the station on a semi permanent basis make sense to me, but not full partnership. Ultimately the Chinese program is for the most part about technology development, military applications and showing the flag, all of which are better and more cheaply served by an independent program.

If I had to guess the actual trajectory things will take is that now China is openly committed to an independent full station that will happen for propaganda purposes if no other. It WILL probably be significantly delayed between cost and the ability of Tiangong 2 and 3 being able to accomplish all real mission objectives of a station, and the final project may eventually amount to little more than docking a few Tiangong's to each other. In any case, once something they can call a station is operation we'll see a Chinese visit to ISS organized once it can be a bilateral program that includes an international visit to the Chinese platform (be it Soyuz or something American).
 

Archibald

Banned
The cynic in me have this to say. Being not included in the ISS was actually a chance for China - because the Freedom / Alpha / ISS debacle somewhat sucked life (budgets!) out of Japan and Europe manned spaceflight. ;)
 
We'd have overly sensitive Americans and Europeans whining about human rights and protection of intellectual property.
 
We'd have overly sensitive Americans and Europeans whining about human rights and protection of intellectual property.

Well, we did once fight a civil war over what did and did not constitute property. Yeah, we take property rights very seriously. As for the former... I think we all have a good idea of how many despots the CIA backed during the Cold War, so America can't harp too much on China.
 
As the title indicates, I'm curious to hear from the board's resident aerospace enthusiasts how they think the ISS would've panned out had the Chinese not been excluded from participation by the US. Might China still pursue their own independent space station program?

I could be wrong, but IIRC hearing that the Chinese were asked if they wanted to participate in the ISS after their first manned space flight, and it was the Chinese who said no.
 
I could be wrong, but IIRC hearing that the Chinese were asked if they wanted to participate in the ISS after their first manned space flight, and it was the Chinese who said no.

They've gone back and forth. The thing is that officially most (I actually think all) the major partners have said that they are willing to talk. As above though I really don't see what's in it for either side, China has no goals for their program that align that well with the ISS, and doesn't have an active enough or well funded enough program to be a major asset to the program. A visit by Shenhouz makes good political and operation sense, but I have a hard time seeing China agree to that in a less than full partnership scenario until a visit by to a Chinese facility can be arranged for the Western partners, and that's just not going to be likely until at least Tiangong 3.
 
If China had become part of the ISS consortium, then we would have Long March rockets launching supply spacecraft to the ISS, China possibly adding smaller laboratory modules to ISS, and there would be regular Shenzhou flights to ISS maybe twice a year.

Regarding cargo launches, would the Chinese develop their own unmanned resupply vehicle, or could they adapt some sort of copy of the Russian Progress to their rockets?
 
I could be wrong, but IIRC hearing that the Chinese were asked if they wanted to participate in the ISS after their first manned space flight, and it was the Chinese who said no.

No, it been the United States vetoing their participation, though they have since lost interest in the ISS anyway, other than in cooperation with their proposed stations.
 
Regarding cargo launches, would the Chinese develop their own unmanned resupply vehicle, or could they adapt some sort of copy of the Russian Progress to their rockets?

Probably something based on the Shenzhou spacecraft but instead of carrying astronauts it is designed specifically to carry cargo.
 
Probably something based on the Shenzhou spacecraft but instead of carrying astronauts it is designed specifically to carry cargo.

Shenzhou has already demonstrated unmanned docking capability, so at this point Chinese supply is down to stripping whatever they can for increased payload.
 
the Shenzhou Program would run much faster, than in OTL !
of corse it would take to october 2003 for first manned flight of Shenzhou 5
but the docking test flight would carry out under Shenzhou 7 & 9 flights to ISS in year 2005.
with "little" help by NASA and much "bigger" help by RKA ;)

next to the Shenzou would be the Tiangong module used as supply ship like ESA ATV.
it could be used also as Module for ISS dock on Zvezda or Zarya Module of ISS
it could possible that that the Chinese buy a surplus hardware of Soviet space station.
like the ALMAZ station hull for Excalibur Almaz
fill it with chinese hardware and launch it with russian proton.

there will be a interesting situation after 2003 columbia disaster and the Phase out of US Shuttle.
who they gonna buy there flight ticket to ISS, at China or Russia ?
 
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