WI China Neutral in WWI

Ha, no prob -- it was years ago, AAR.
Holy shit, you're right. Almost 10 months ago.

Yeah, this would mean Germany -- led by Wilhelm II, no less -- taking its colonial presence in China as a lost cause, which does seem to stretch plausibility. But I also think that, with the war in Europe over, China is still going to look for allies in pushing back against the overbearing Japanese, by military or other means. And if Duan's scheme for buying Entente support with his nation's entry isn't in the running, they'll probably look to get allies the old fashioned way.

So who does the Beying Government (and possibly factions within, like the KMT) court to this end? Well, like you said, Germany is a problematic candidate; Russia is a maybe, depending on how it turns out; and America still supports Open Door Policy, though they may balk at challenging Japan too directly this early (especially depending on other butterflies from WWI). Any other candidates?

A thing is, though, I have my doubts over whether or not Japan can make it through prolonged warfare in China - not only are they going to have to have extended supply routes and having continued presence in hostile territory, if the Triple Entente are losing their loans aren't going to be going to Japan. Japan may as well lose this war if it gets stretched long enough - remember, the First Sino-Japanese War was mainly a naval one, but this one will surely be army-based.

Also, *Beiyang government.

With Yuan dead and support for the government lost with the loss of Shandong, Sun will be in an uphill struggle to consolidate power from Canton. For Russia, either white or red will support the KMT because of their balance against Japan; France will be badly hurt and too busy licking its wounds; the Americans will certainly be the second most likely candidate, since although they may not like a war against Japan they'll certainly win one, even in the 1910s. Britain comes as a distant third.
 
Ok, so we've got a Second Sino-Japanese War breaking out in the late 1910's or 20's, with Russia (whoever comes to power) supporting the Chinese, possibly also the U.S. (Now that I think about it, this war in itself would have serious implications the world over; e.g. colonialism.)

One other thing -- if the Beiyang Government doesn't (full scale) collapse in 1917, does that mean TTL could see more or less functional elections in 1918?
 
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