WI:China invaded Taiwan.

Let's say the time period is during the late 80s, and the Republic of China on Taiwan supports the Tiananmen Demonstrations, and sends troops to aid the supporters who were injured and take them back to the hospitals in Taiwan. But Chinese officals are outraged at Taiwan's interference and has thier troops open fire on the Taiwanease soliders and medics. Eventually, the leader of Taiwan at that time Lee Teng-Hui was persuaded to pull back thier troops, once the word of China's soliders killing Taiwansase troops. But, China would then start to prepare to invade Taiwan using thier troops 'invading' while the Chinease miltary was quelling 'riots' as a excuse.

1: How long will Taiwan last when China decides to invade?
2: Will it be long enough for the US to help?
3: How will this affect the Cold War this late into it?
4: Will this be enough for World War 3?
 
HOW does Taiwan send soldiers into BEIJING?!
Let's just say that somehow they manage to. If, you guys would like then you could make up a reason of how Taiwan manages to do that. Sorry, if I get in trouble for saying this. Its been quite a while since I have been here...:(:(:eek:
 
The US navy in such a pretty unlikely scenario would destroy any attempts by the PRC to land troops. In a more likely solution the US would support things going back to the way they were and both sides forced to make up.
 
USN rolls in and brushes aside China's navy, destroying all their ability to transport troops, China is expelled from Taiwan, Deng gets taken out by a inter-party coup to be replaced by someone who isn't obviously suffering from nationalistic delusions of grandeur and ipso facto status quo antebellum.
 
USN rolls in and brushes aside China's navy, destroying all their ability to transport troops, China is expelled from Taiwan, Deng gets taken out by a inter-party coup to be replaced by someone who isn't obviously suffering from nationalistic delusions of grandeur and ipso facto status quo antebellum.
You know Mr. HWG, that could make a interesting timeline in itself.
 
Also, do you guys think this will be a big factor in the Cold War? Will this lead to hatefull Sino-American relations?
 

Hyperion

Banned
Let's just say that somehow they manage to. If, you guys would like then you could make up a reason of how Taiwan manages to do that. Sorry, if I get in trouble for saying this. Its been quite a while since I have been here...:(:(:eek:

Could the moderator move this to the ASB section.

Seriously, Taiwan and mainland China are two seperate nations in all but name.

Taiwan sending soldiers, even non combat soldiers, would be the height of stupidity. The minute Taiwan military aircraft enter mainland China airspace, expect MiG fighters and SAM batteries to be tracking them and preparing to shoot them down. The idea of them helping the demonstrators is ASB.
 
Could the moderator move this to the ASB section.

Seriously, Taiwan and mainland China are two seperate nations in all but name.

Taiwan sending soldiers, even non combat soldiers, would be the height of stupidity. The minute Taiwan military aircraft enter mainland China airspace, expect MiG fighters and SAM batteries to be tracking them and preparing to shoot them down. The idea of them helping the demonstrators is ASB.
Like I said, I'm really sorry about this. It was supposed to be my comeback to AH.com..:(:(:(
 
Like I said, I'm really sorry about this. It was supposed to be my comeback to AH.com..:(:(:(

Don't worry about it, just remember to flesh out the material more before you post another idea and make sure it is vaguely plausible as a WI.​
 
In the 1980's, the USA is in the process of moving its manufacturing base to China. Conflict in the region can only be bad for the USA. Sabres are rattled, but of course nothing happens. China does not really need Taiwan, and Taiwan needs peace.
 
Sorry, but ASB. Lee Teng-hui and the KMT supported the students in Tiananmen in OTL, but without the intervention of divine alien space bats, he would never have sent troops to aid the students. Taiwan, especially under Lee Teng-hui, won't be that insane and stupid to do something that would provoke Chinese invasion.
 
Tiawan will probably last some time but if it has given China an excuse to invade there will be strong diplomatic protests and that's about it. The prospect of two industrial competitors knocking each other out may prove to be irresistable. No one is going to risk World War 3.

As it is China will try and reunite with Taiwan by more peaceful means i.e another economic zone on the Hong Kong model
 

Hyperion

Banned
The only way I could see large numbers of troops from Taiwan, or any foreign troops in China outside of guarding an embassy or a training exercise, would be if perhaps a situation in China develops to the point the country falls into another civil war, and one side or faction asks for foreign help.
 
(snipping ASBness)

1: How long will Taiwan last when China decides to invade?
2: Will it be long enough for the US to help?
3: How will this affect the Cold War this late into it?
4: Will this be enough for World War 3?

1. Depends. Is there a US CVBG in the area? If so, Taiwan will last for many years to come. If not, things might get dicey.

2. Assuming a "no" on #1, almost certainly yes. Taiwan is hardly helpless, and opposed amphibious assaults are tough.

3. It probably won't.

4. No.

Even today, with the PLA's capabilities far in excess of the 1980's and the US much less capable, an invasion would be a tremendous risk at poor odds for little reward.

The PLA would need to establish air supremacy over the straight immediately (within 12 hours or less) and over all of Taiwan within 24 hours. Difficult to impossible.

The PLA would need to move a significant force of troops across the straight (by air or sea) and get them on the ground with at least some cohesion. Given air supremacy, possible but very hard and requiring a number of unconventional methods (merchant ship Trojan Horses, for example). Most of the troops sent ARE going to die.

The PLA would need to defeat Taiwan's ground forces QUICKLY. Given they can put troops ashore, possible but again tough and sure to ring up a high butcher's bill.

The PLA would need to convince the world that they were now the legitimate rulers of Taiwan and efforts to dislodge them aren't worth it. VERY hard, though a weak or sympathetic US POTUS would help greatly.

All this has to happen fast, because once the US engages (which will happen within days) the odds of success plummet. A single CVBG can blockade Taiwan from any reinforcement or supplies. The US can easily maintain a blockade long enough to starve the PLA into surrender (the politics of which are messy, of course).

If China were assured of US neutrality somehow (which would mean at minimum the US is violating treaty obligations), the odds are still not great, the expenditure will still be large, and the gain not very large.

Is there a chance they could pull it off? Sure. Better than, say, the odds of the Axis winning WWII? Also sure, because the political landscape is much more in their favor. However victory relies absolutely on preventing any US involvement beyond the trivial, and isn't guaranteed even so.

Maybe if Taiwan was found to have the world's largest untapped reserves of platinum or something it might be worth it, but otherwise the cost/reward case just isn't there.

Edit: fixed a typo.
 
Assuming that the PRC invasion of Taiwan is in response to some increase in tensions (Tiananmin or other) the U.S. will move forces to the area - subs quietly and a CVBG closer than usual. The PRC's ability to airlift lots of troops is not there, and whatever they do send has to get through Taiwanese air defenses (and sending in SEAD telegraphs the punch) and whatever damage they do initially won't matter because they will be wiped out by the ROCs quickly unless reinforced by sea. Going across the Taiwan Strait is not a quick thing (avg 200km/110nm wide) so minimum 8 hrs to get across for an amphib. Between ROC forces & USN very few will get across, and since the ships will have to go back & reload (limited lift) the odds of a 2nd wave making it are about zero. Still true today more so in 1980s.

Against just Taiwan ugly & costly for PRC, add the USA & not doable. Of course hit Taiwan with some nukes on key nodes/military sites and it is easier..but that changes the equation big time.

IMHO even though some manufacturing was going to PRC at this time, if PRC pulls this, successful or not, US investment in China and willingness to see some key items made there (not just cheapo fans & stuffed animals) & the resultant tech transfer won't happen....US will go someplace else (maybe Mexico, Central America, VN) that might cost a little more but won't have recently attacked one of our key allies.
 
Yes, no, maybe

First, politically, a PRC invasion of the ROC is *legally* possible if Taiwan were to declare their independence. The US position is to recognize Taiwan as part of China but under 'special status'. There is no obligation on the part of the US to defend the ROC as something other than it's current political status.

Secondly, the US Navy wouldn't be able to intervene in time. The question is not what or if the PRC invades, it's *how* to do it and get away with it, more or less.

The answer to this is:

1.To do so when the US fleet or most of it is furthest away, at least 2 days travel from the Straights.

2. A massive invasion that overwhelms the defenses of the ROC. We are talking at least 1 million troops win 10,000 landing craft.

2.1 Possible doing this without air support or missile bombardment of ROC defenses except runways. This would put the PRC in a higher 'moral' ground. Make the ROC fire lots of 'first shots' before a response.

3. Establish massive numbers of armed troops in the major cities and mix with the panicked civilians. Occupy TV stations, radio station, etc all on the first day.

4. Use previously landed agents mixed in with tourists from the mainland (there is already a large tourist industry) to help in this endevour.

In a more military manner...a massive missile barrage while the undetected landing craft make way across the straights. Target all transmission lines/substations but leave the power plants alone. Jam all TV and radio. Barrage to target every air field completely, both civilian military; all military installations and *access* to same via road or water.

Make it a fait a compli and the US won't be able to do anything.

DW
 
dwalters
Sorry ASB. First off the PRC TODAY does not have enough amphibious lift to move 100,00 troops at one lift, let alone a million....in 1980s.. Even under the best of circumstances it would be a while before the PRC could land troops and especially equipment at any Taiwanese port - so it would all have to go over the beaches for some time. Also, don't forget that the troops will need food, ammo, spare parts, vehicles armored & soft etc etc. Yes there are gas stations in Taiwan, and noodle shops..but that's no way to plan an invasion.

Evn if the PRC had enough ships to lift even 100,000 men and appropriate gear at one time, in the age of satellite recon (photo/radar/elint) and good old fashioned spies you simply can't hide that & pretending its all an exercise won't prevent the Taiwanese from getting alerted & the US from bringing forces closer. Finally how do you hide an armada the size of D-Day (which moved nowhere near a million men) crossing a strait 110nm wide, not the English Channel from 1980s (not 1944) technology???

In 2011 a PRC amphibious/air assault on Taiwan without the use of nukes would be expensive even against just the ROC forces, which are playing at home and have the easier job. If the US gets involved, it costs the PRC every ship, aircraft, man & piece of gear they get more than halfway across, even if some of them die on Taiwan & do significant damage. This is simply a military evaluation - the diplomatic costs to the PRC successful or not will be huge, likewise financial costs in terms of reduced investment & less exports.

Unless the Taiwanese do something suicidal (and maybe not even then) the PRC won't invade - they take the long view and expect that, sooner or later, Taiwan will be reabsorbed.
 
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