WI: China Does Better in the Sino-French War?

This is probably one of the less known conflicts between China and western powers, even though it did have important effects in China, nearby regions, and France itself. The conflict also seems to have gone better for China than other wars with outside powers during the 19th century. Were there any way China could have done better? I’m not seeking a scenario where China necessarily wins (though feel free to suggest one if you have an idea!) but where the conflict becomes even a bigger embarrassment for France that it was IOTL. What effects this would have had?
 
The 1884 one?

It was not really an embarrassment, it was only one telegram which got misinterpreted.

It's quite interesting, I do wonder how. If Ham Ngi, the Emperor of Vietnam managed to join the Chinese forces, it might help join the Chinese army with the Can Vuong guerilla.

If you wanna be mean and risk it, one could imagine some discreet Prussian support as Prussian infiltration in the highlands of Annam was feared at the time

You could probably work something out with a setback for the French army meaning the war is not won by the time Ferry has to leave.

Hard to do much more with just the Chinese Army, they got destroyed quite badly, especially due to maritime dominance of the French
 

raharris1973

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What's the least the French could be made to settle for under the circumstances?

What are the odds of them seeking revanche again by 1900? [although France started the war, colonial powers in those days felt compelled to get "revenge" not only for attacks on themselves but for occasions when their expansion was frustrated {see history of Italy and Ethiopia}]
 
What's the least the French could be made to settle for under the circumstances?

What are the odds of them seeking revanche again by 1900? [although France started the war, colonial powers in those days felt compelled to get "revenge" not only for attacks on themselves but for occasions when their expansion was frustrated {see history of Italy and Ethiopia}]
I'm on my phone so can't do as full an answer as I'd like but I doubt you'd get revanchist sentiment as a full on defeat is absolutely impossible at that time.
However, you can get France throwing the towel, feeling it's not worth it.

The thing is, the war against China is really a war against Vietnam with Chinese intervention, so you'd still get a puppet emperor in Hué and a subjugation of the country.
France would not sever the official tributary link between China and Vietnam, but it doesn't matter much.
If French hold over Tonkin is lighter, and the tributary link still there, they'd probably annex Annam outright instead of maintaining the spectacle of the protectorate. No need for a tributary link if there's no Vietnamese state after all.

Risk is with guerilla and a proper court in exile but France would not accept an uppity colony
 
First, have Germany move from helping France to strict neutrality. The Chinese Battleships Dingyuan and Zhenyuan had been built in Germany but delivery was delayed to keep them out of the war

Second, the threat to Korea from Japan kept the Northern Fleet tied up. The failed Gapsin coup plot by Japan brought a sharp deterioration of relations between China and both Japan and Russia. The prospect of war with both these, made the Chinese seek peace. So a little chaos in Japan making her unable to take advantage of the war would greatly help

The French were sick of the war and disgusted with Ferry. Any major setbacks could send things reeling fast.
 

raharris1973

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[QUOTE="Aphrodite, post: 15400320, member: 96221"The failed Gapsin coup plot by Japan brought a sharp deterioration of relations between China and both Japan and Russia.[/QUOTE]

I would have figured this coup attempt would stoke Chinese fears of Japan. But why of Russia? Or was Russia fearful of Japan as a consequence?
 
First, have Germany move from helping France to strict neutrality. The Chinese Battleships Dingyuan and Zhenyuan had been built in Germany but delivery was delayed to keep them out of the war
Situation between Germany and France was still tense at the time, it's less than 15 years after the war and the goal of French colonial enterprises were openly to boost ego and influence following the loss of prestige in the war.
So any help of Prussia would basically be a declaration of war, or at least scaling up tensions, when Prussia wants to be seen as a peace broker (see the Berlin Conference).


Second, the threat to Korea from Japan kept the Northern Fleet tied up. The failed Gapsin coup plot by Japan brought a sharp deterioration of relations between China and both Japan and Russia. The prospect of war with both these, made the Chinese seek peace. So a little chaos in Japan making her unable to take advantage of the war would greatly help
Don't know anything about that, could you elaborate?

The French were sick of the war and disgusted with Ferry. Any major setbacks could send things reeling fast.
Yes and no. Any further attacks on China might get pushed back, but beating China was not the main objective of this whole campaign.
This campaign was started by China to retain influence over Tonkin. I do think that it's a lost cause, with the French being able to capture Hué very easily. China could always try to occupy Tonkin and Hanoi but that would come with its own set of problems, the Viets not really liking Chinese occupation either
 
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