WI - China detonates A-bomb on Japan during Korean War?

[Catsmate]

Yeah this is an idea that would make for a great alt history spy thriller, but a realistic plan? Not so much.

ETA: I also think that nuclear material from different nations has a different 'signature' that can be analysed to determine the origin?

Different batches from the same reactor can be differentiated by the impurities present. However I'm dubious about this being possible in the early 1950s, nor would the signatures have been available given the limited level of Soviet nuclear testing.
However the plan is terrible (Forsyth did it better in The Fourth Protocol) and likely to fail or be seen through rapidly. Given the level of anti-communist belief is ramping up (Korean War, Berlin et cetera) and the anti-government mindset is years in the future, it wouldn't be believed. Goodbye China.


BTW I liked the film, especially the finale.

 

[Garrison]

Different batches from the same reactor can be differentiated by the impurities present. However I'm dubious about this being possible in the early 1950s, nor would the signatures have been available given the limited level of Soviet nuclear testing.
However the plan is terrible (Forsyth did it better in The Fourth Protocol) and likely to fail or be seen through rapidly. Given the level of anti-communist belief is ramping up (Korean War, Berlin et cetera) and the anti-government mindset is years in the future, it wouldn't be believed. Goodbye China.


BTW I liked the film, especially the finale.

Fair enough, and it is the least of the issues with the idea. As you say given the Red Scare a lot of people would probably find the Soviet false flag story plausible even if there was a genuine US accidental nuclear detonation. Actually a genuine nuclear accident by the USAF might be a better POD.

 

[Alanith]

Any Japanese government trying to force the Americans out would have found itself soon replaced with a more compliant one by the CIA.

 

[Catsmate]

Fair enough, and it is the least of the issues with the idea. As you say given the Red Scare a lot of people would probably find the Soviet false flag story plausible even if there was a genuine US accidental nuclear detonation. Actually a genuine nuclear accident by the USAF might be a better POD.

Very true, the US did have a number of incidents. We were discussing Goldsboro recently.

 

[Catsmate]

BTW the film is on YouTube.

I particularly like the finale

Spoiler: To avoid spoiling things...

The crew surface the boat, boil out the hatches and deploy rifles, Thompsons, Lewis and Brownings, plus the deck gun, to shoot down the bomber.

 

[Catsmate]

I'm no expert but wouldn't any seriously damaged American plane with an armed nuclear weapon trying to fly back to base and land ditch the weapon in the sea? Presumably America wouldn't be that short of nukes in this time period they'd take this much risk to save one. I can't see anyone believing this tbh.

Also most nuclear weapons simply aren't prone to accidental detonation (the MK1 was an exception) and the principle of 'in flight insertion' of the capsule containing the core was introduced with the MK4.

ETA: a quick check shows all the MK1 (Uranium gun-barrel design, Hiroshima) and MK3 (early Plutonium imposion, Nagasaki) were retired and being recycled by late 1950. Therefore all USAF weapons in (say) 1953 were MK4 (improved MK3, first mass production weapon, enhanced safety features including IFI) or MK5 (significantly improved and more powerful design, same safety improvements).
There were at least two serious accidents with the MK4, neither came close to an accidental detonation.

 

[Alternator]

My premise is not to have Russia/China start a war, but to turn the world against the US. The story Russia/China would tell is that the US attempted to drop an Abomb on NK or China, under the direction of the running dog Truman, and his hysterical lackey MacArthur. Obviously the desperate UN forces were on the verge of collapse under the foot of the glorious PLA, and were going to use the bomb in a desperate move. However the great PLA air defenses threw the imperialist devil weapon back. Attempting to hide their shame and coverup their diabolical plot, the damaged bomber tried to return to its base. However it crashed and the bomb exploded, exposing their devious crime, and killing thousands of innocent Japanese in the process, adding to it’s other atomic crimes against humanity! The mark of the US imperialist mushroom cloud rises over another city!

- There would be little if any wreckage so good luck proving it wasn’t a US plane. As for getting an operating B-29, I believe the Russians still had one flying at this point (1951), but even if they didn’t, a Tu-4 would do fine.
- The plane wouldn’t have to be a “silver plate” as they aren’t “dropping” a bomb, they’re crashing one. So the Russian bomb mechanism could take up as much room as needed in the aircraft.
- The target would be any Japanese large northern coastal city, as obviously the plane was trying to reach its base but lost control.
- As for getting a volunteer aircrew, I don’t think Mao would have any problem finding a few fanatical followers in their air force.
- A damaged B-29 coming from the direction of NK (or even China), would no doubt raise some eyebrows, but there’s not a lot of time. So depending on when it’s spotted, and the efforts to identify it, would be a close run thing. There would be a strong impulse to assist the plane rather than to destroy it.
- if the plot succeeds, I can see support for the US, even among allies, dropping to zero, and the Japanese demanding the expulsion of all US presenice.


Hmmm what’s Spielburg’s number?😉

ric350

China and the USSR can have whatever plans they want, the United States is going to know it was a false flag, and they're going to retaliate on that knowledge. China ends up irradiated and the USSR goes, "It wasn't us, they stole the bomb!"

The Soviets do not have a meaningful nuclear retaliation ability at this point, so the United States just wins.

 

[Alanith]

China and the USSR can have whatever plans they want, the United States is going to know it was a false flag, and they're going to retaliate on that knowledge. China ends up irradiated and the USSR goes, "It wasn't us, they stole the bomb!"

The Soviets do not have a meaningful nuclear retaliation ability at this point, so the United States just wins.

Stalin would be exceedingly lucky if the US bought that "Excuse".

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

One should not underestimate the gullibility of Western (and Third World) intellectuals toward Communist lies. The Communists accused the UN forces in Korea of engaging in germ warfare. Their "evidence" was confessions extorted from PoWs. There was no shortage of "useful idiots" to endorse this claim.

If the plot outlined by the OP had been carried out, American denials would be summarily dismissed. The explosion would obliterate any physical evidence; and US government records or testimony by USAF personnel would be dismissed as forgeries.

 

[Nebogipfel]

As mentioned already, the fissionable material tends to have isotopic/chemcial characteristics based on its sources. However, in the early 50s mass spectroscopy was probably not that advanced to pin down such fingerprints (tiny differences in probably trace amounts of material to work with, even difficult today) with the accuracy needed. Also, not all 'fingerprints' of the original sources were probably known. However, sooner or later (probably the former) analytical technology would catch up and then the conspriracy would fall apart. 1-2 deacdes later, so after the original political fallout.

 

[Histor32]

One should not underestimate the gullibility of Western (and Third World) intellectuals toward Communist lies. The Communists accused the UN forces in Korea of engaging in germ warfare. Their "evidence" was confessions extorted from PoWs. There was no shortage of "useful idiots" to endorse this claim.

If the plot outlined by the OP had been carried out, American denials would be summarily dismissed. The explosion would obliterate any physical evidence; and US government records or testimony by USAF personnel would be dismissed as forgeries.

im gonna differ on this. there are also always useful idiots on both sides.

note this:
1. this is during a time when instant media doesnt exist
2. there also isnt the anti government thing going on

as pointed out by others and myself there is enough bad ends involved here that so you surmount one problem 5 more crop up. I agree that as you say people will spin things from the different sides. japan is going to be furious but ask yourself if you were japan. the usa did it twice to them, didnt deny it. have been what iw ould say is pretty darn good occupiers since the end of the war. why would they really lie to them? i would assume as well that the USA would be diligent in helping to get clean up going .. etc..etc..

last but not least as i mentioned before you have to get the plane and bomb there. this is an active war region. Radar works.. plans are tracked - especially military. they will know and or have said something of hey plane A originated from said course in bound for point B - they will check flight routes and other items of concern to validate. one thing that might come about is major active transperancy in the west to its partners on the bomb and other facets of usage, storage, movement. ( which there already was)

there is no win win from the soviets or chinese and north korea on this. this will be seen as a major escalation and unfortunatly the peole who will pay civillians. cold war just got really ugly..

 

[jlckansas]

You also had the Carrier groups on both coasts of North and South Korea that would track anyone coming from China or the USSR and send someone to check them out. They would know that any planes from either the USSR or China would not be one of ours and intercept before they even got to Japan. The USAF on top of this had full radar coverage around Japan, especially from China and the USSR, and would notice anyone coming from their direction. They won't just let it go just because its one of ours..