In October 1949 the battle of Guningtou on the offshore Chinese island of Quemoy/Jinmen/Kinmen bucked the year's trend of Chinese Communist victories and Chinese Nationalist failures. It also revived the morale of at least the Taiwan-based Chinese Nationalist forces and shocked the Chinese leadership into looking at painstaking preparations that could be required to successfully invade Taiwan and other offshore islands. As it turned out, while preparations were being made, and China seized Hainan and some other offshore islands in the interim, by May 1950 the PRC was thinking an invasion of Taiwan was at least months away, if not something impractical until 1951.
...and then the Korean war started and the US interposed the 7th fleet. And then the Chinese started fighting in Korea about four months later, all resulting in a Taiwan invasion dropping from the PRC's immediate "to-do" list.
What if ChiNats just never garrison Quemoy as much prior to October 1949, or, the ChiComs get very lucky and ChiNats unlucky.
Here is wiki background on the battle, which suggests some potential PoDs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Guningtou
If the PLA does not face its historic setback, would Mao keep pushing his armies to finish the job in Taiwan, to the point that he initiates an invasion of Taiwan before the Korean War starts on June 25th, 1950.
If launched in the spring of 1950 or in early to mid-June, an invasion will be one of two things, either a disaster for the PLA, or the last campaign of the Civil War and final humiliation and defeat of the Chinese Nationalists. Either way it could have interesting effects on US foreign policy, US domestic politics and the Korean War. What might those be?
...and then the Korean war started and the US interposed the 7th fleet. And then the Chinese started fighting in Korea about four months later, all resulting in a Taiwan invasion dropping from the PRC's immediate "to-do" list.
What if ChiNats just never garrison Quemoy as much prior to October 1949, or, the ChiComs get very lucky and ChiNats unlucky.
Here is wiki background on the battle, which suggests some potential PoDs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Guningtou
If the PLA does not face its historic setback, would Mao keep pushing his armies to finish the job in Taiwan, to the point that he initiates an invasion of Taiwan before the Korean War starts on June 25th, 1950.
If launched in the spring of 1950 or in early to mid-June, an invasion will be one of two things, either a disaster for the PLA, or the last campaign of the Civil War and final humiliation and defeat of the Chinese Nationalists. Either way it could have interesting effects on US foreign policy, US domestic politics and the Korean War. What might those be?