WI: Chiang declares Taiwan as independent

Say after the Chinese Civil War, that Chiang-kai Shek has a pragmatic moment, and declares Taiwan to be an independent state.

He revokes claims on the Chinese mainland, but gets US approval and protection.

Although this would probably never happen, given that Taiwan at that point was a military dictatorship, and Chiang's pride, I am curious on what the effects of such a decision would be.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Say after the Chinese Civil War, that Chiang-kai Shek has a pragmatic moment, and declares Taiwan to be an independent state.

He revokes claims on the Chinese mainland, but gets US approval and protection.

Although this would probably never happen, given that Taiwan at that point was a military dictatorship, and Chiang's pride, I am curious on what the effects of such a decision would be.

The PRC will continue to proclaim that Taiwan is a part of China.

Taiwan probably loses the security council seat sooner because the KMT is no longer claiming to be China and China holds the seat.

Countries might recognize Taiwan and it gets awfully difficult to revoke the recognition once China opens up.

I think today the Taiwan issue is fundamentally going to be similar, people don't want to piss off the PRC too much.
 

sprite

Donor
Monthly Donor
It couldn't be Chiang. He was many things but pragmatic was not one of them. If he declared independence a good proportion of the Nationalist generals and politicians (probably with American backing) would move to depose him.

Also, the fiction that the Republic was the legitimate government of China, allowed the Nationalists to remain in organisations such as the UN.
 
It wasn't only pride

In spite of the Communist takeover of the Chinese mainland Chiang's RoC was still considered the legitimate government in exile to a lot of influential nations and as such maintained a seat on the UN Security Counsel until 1971 when Resolution 2758 was passed. This gave them the ability at that time to effectively contain the CCP internationally (as best as could be done considering Soviet assistance) so I don't see any leader wanting to give up that kind of influence.
 
Say after the Chinese Civil War, that Chiang-kai Shek has a pragmatic moment, and declares Taiwan to be an independent state.

He revokes claims on the Chinese mainland, but gets US approval and protection.

Although this would probably never happen, given that Taiwan at that point was a military dictatorship, and Chiang's pride, I am curious on what the effects of such a decision would be.

Well, one immediate effect is that Chiang's authority in Taiwan becomes illegitimate. Chiang and his KMT associates ruled Taiwan as the incumbent officers of the Republic of China, elected in 1945-1948. Since 98% of China was under control of "rebels", it was impossible to hold new elections; they continued in power for over 40 years. The surviving mainland members of the Legislative Yuan were finally forced to resign in 1991.

If Chiang drops the RoC claim to rule all China, the Yuan represents nothing. There is no excuse for not having elections immediate to elect a Yuan representing the actual territory of the RoC; that Yuan will repudiate the KMT.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Chiang might as well drop his trousers and order the Parliament to suck it- because that's about how likely it is for him to declare Taiwan as independent.

Part of the issue is that he has literally no reason to do this. It'd make as much sense as North Korea folding to let the South unite them; there is a strand of plausibility, but you have to take the person you are dealing with enter the carpet of this metaphor. Chiang sees the mainland has been overrun and occupied, with Taiwan as the last Bastion of 'real China' that will eventually reclaim the mainland when the PRC would (in his mind) inevitably collapse.
 
Well, one immediate effect is that Chiang's authority in Taiwan becomes illegitimate. Chiang and his KMT associates ruled Taiwan as the incumbent officers of the Republic of China, elected in 1945-1948. Since 98% of China was under control of "rebels", it was impossible to hold new elections; they continued in power for over 40 years. The surviving mainland members of the Legislative Yuan were finally forced to resign in 1991.

If Chiang drops the RoC claim to rule all China, the Yuan represents nothing. There is no excuse for not having elections immediate to elect a Yuan representing the actual territory of the RoC; that Yuan will repudiate the KMT.

Especially in light of stuff like 228, or the fact that Taiwan hadn't been Chinese territory for 50 years before he came along...
 
Top