WI:Charles XII returns to Sweden after the Battle of Gadebuasch

So let's say that Charles gets fed up with the ottomans being worthless and decides to return to Sweden(specifically Finland) to once more lead his armies.
Since he returns right after a major victory Swedish moral is still fairly decent, and he mobilizes all the remaining troops in Finland, which number at least 10000. Let's say he crushes the invading russian army preventing the disasters at Palkane and Storykyro. This victory gives Sweden some much needed breathing room and Charles orders Field Marshal Stenbock to begin a new offensive against Saxony.
With Russia being temporarily stalled and after having failed at Helsingborg and Gadebausch Denmark decides that this is not going be easy as they hoped and they once again make peace. Stenbock has at least 9,000 troops and should be able to heavily damage if not outright defeat them(Gustav Rehnskold was able to defeat a Saxon army twice the size of his own with only 9,400 troops in the battle of Fraustadt).
If Denmark and Saxony are once again out of the war I don't see Hanover or Prussia-Brandenburg joining against the Swedes. This would leave Russia all alone to fight King Charles. Due to the allotment system he would be able to recruit more men to replace the army he lost at Poltava. With new victories against the Russians the Ottoman Empire might even consider joining the war on Sweden's side.

If Charles were to return to Sweden after Gadebausch rather than in 1715 in real life do you think that Sweden would have been able to keep all their German possessions, Estonia, Livonia, and also remain a great power?
IMO his greatest mistake was wasting time in the Ottoman Empire, after they had proved to be fruitless allies. Sweden, aside from Stenbock was deprived of strong leadership that saw all of its Baltic possessions overrun.
 
Bumping this... I was also considering using something like this in a TL I'm planning, though he would return before Gadebusch because of some events. I'm not sure he could just kick the Danes out with one battle near Wismar but if defeated severely enough, they would leave. Invasion of Saxony, now that might be a little difficult. However I'd like to see a discussion about this. I read about a possible treaty planned by Gortz to play the Danes against the Russians (they didn't like each other) but Karl XII didn't want to give Stettin to Prussia in exchange for help. I need help with this because I can't find anything. Does anyone think Karl's early return is plausible...and maybe Sweden doesn't get burned almost all the way to Stockholm, even though it surely would lose the war?
So, any takers?
 
Gadebusch was only one desperately achieved success in an otherwise failed campaign where only half the force had been able to land, and the victorious army being stuck and surrounded after the battle.

The enemies were getting better and better while the Swedes were short of everything. The king returning earlier might mean that Stenbock's army survives and there is a new Swedish offensive in northern Germany. Perhaps Prussia and Hanover stay out of the war if the Swedes still seem to have some military might. While Stenbock's Army is around, Russia will not try to take the rest of Finland.

Charles was a bit stubborn and not particularly diplomatic, so one might wonder if Sweden could get out of this mess, under him.

One possibility:
A 1712 peace with Russia where Sweden cedes Viborg, Narva and Ingria, but gets Russian support for Stanislaus against Augustus, and Estonia, Livonia and Courland are returned to Sweden. (Courland was under Swedish occupation from 1701.) Denmark and Saxony considers the continuing war hopeless in 1713, and a peace is agreed upon, where Stanislaus with initial Swedish support (during the lifetime of Charles) holds the Polish throne (weakly).

Since Finland has never been occupied in TTL, it remains part of Sweden forever. Sweden and Russia do not go to war again, so Estonia and Latvia also stay Swedish. Swedish military power go down later, although not as swiftly as OTL, but Sweden avoids future military actions due to financial weakness and some sense in the government. The Swedish parts of Germany are lost in the 1800s. Poland is not reformed, and something similar to the partitions happen.
 
Yes but Karl was kinda weird. He could've gotten Prussia as an ally, or at least their neutrality in exchange for only Stettin. Prussians would forbid the Russians from crossing over their territory and it would greatly help Pomerania. Prussia as an ally could also have an effect on Hanover and make them somewhat more pro-Swedish or better said, less anti-Swedish. But Karl didn't want to give up land he thought should belong to him and there you have it :(
 
OTL 1714 when he returned, he did not try to save Finland, but stayed in a hopeless defense of the German provinces, and both fronts were lost. If he returns 1712, and there is a victorious Swedish army available, and Finland is not immediately threatened, he would probably stay with this army, which could be strengthened by mercenaries from the German market, and more easily supported on German territory than in the Polish and Ukrainian lands he had used previously.

Depending on the course of events, either the war would continue, or Sweden would draw more and more enemies, and lose. He did seem somewhat more flexible in later years, but by that time there was little leeroom for anything. Since he obviously has decided to leave Turkey earlier, there should be a reason for this, or is it just that there now is a Swedish army on the continent again, or that he has decided that staying in Turkey is pointless.

An Austrian alliance was in the air and could have given something, if he has changed a little from OTL. Perhaps a suitable marriage?
 
For some reason I don't see Karl marrying. maybe only because of a duty to have an heir he could marry later on, but only maybe and if he finishes his campaigns and lives. Maybe he could get the Duke Karl Leopold of Mecklenburg Schwerin (1713-1747) on his side by marrying off his sister Ulrika Eleonora to him? But I'm not sure.

Oh and the reason he comes back early is a different War of Spanish Succession that ends about 1711. A looming war with Venice and Austria makes the Ottomans sign a peace with Peter in spring or summer of 1712 and Karl is evicted/goes home.With Prussia, Hannover and Great Britain all free to act against him only a reason more to go. And of course patriotism and the fact that his country needs him. I think those are reasons enough.

It all depends on how he deals with the Danes but at best he had some 20 000 troops in Pomerania, cut off from Sweden by the Danish navy and a coalition of Danes, Russians, Poles and Saxons. Since he was unwilling to cede a single inch of land probably Hanover and Prussia join the coalition. But it's the details that could change the situation. Once the great powers realize a powerful Russia with troops and ships stationed in Mecklenburg is not a good idea everything could fall apart. Swedes will of course be defeated but maybe hold on to a little more land, get some money stuff like that. And much less raids in Sweden proper if the war ends earlier.
 
But OTL only Saxony was against a strong Russia, while Prussia and Denmark supported it, and the sea powers did not care who ruled where as long as no one was dominant, and Sweden had just been seen holding almost the entire Baltic coast before the disaster of 1709, so why should anyone want to help the Swedes out?

Here, the difference from OTL is that Sweden still could fight on the continent, but time was running out for that, unless victories in the field or alternative alliances change the board.

A flexible Charles would be a different matter. Suppose the council has managed to lessen his powers, as they threatened to. Now he is forced to marry an Austrian (?) princess, accept Augustus as King of Poland, and cede the lands around Petersburg to Russia. Voilà, now only Denmark remains among the enemies, so peace is struck in 1714 without more Swedish losses.
 
what could cause him losing some of his power to the Estates? Even in tough situations like 1718 which was probably far worse he still held all power. And he never accepted ceding territory, especially to Peter. If he did Sweden would do much better in the 18th century. Too bad
 
If Charles returns after Gadebusch it still means that he and not Stenbock will surrender the army. Have him return at once after Helsingborg instead and maybe use the army in Finland instead of sending it to Germany were it will be cut of by the Danish navy
 
what could cause him losing some of his power to the Estates?
During the post-Perevolochna period when Sweden needed a very much present ruler able to act and defend the realm, he was instead staying in Turkey, where the post to and fro took months.

The council threatened to summon the parliament for limiting royal power at some time during this period, but it might have been later than Gadebusch.

Of course I would agree that him losing power is improbable unless something special happens (capture by enemies or similar), and also that he would not agree to peace with losses, since he said that if we make a disadvantageous peace, we would be even worse off when the enemy returns for another war. (He did not consider that the enemy might not go to war again, or that Sweden could use the interim period for better preparations and alliances.)
 
I just had an ironic idea. Had he died sometime around 1709-1710 Sweden will probably end up with Karl Friedrich of Holstein-Gottorp with Hedwig Eleonora as a regent and the Estates taking power. Ulrika Eleonora is less likely as she was still unmarried and her grandmother had considerable power, with the fact that Hedwig Sophia was the older sister. They would surely agree to losing Ingria and Augustus as King of Poland-Lithuania. That could save Karelia and get them Estonia and Livonia back. Especially if they fight off a Danish attack on Scania, that would give them some leverage. And it would save most of German posessions as Bremen-Verden was taken in 1712 and Prussia and Hanover pretty much busy with France. Saxony had to get something and before 1714 I think, they were supposed to get a part of Swedish Pomerania. It would still be better than OTL. German possessions are still in their hands, mostly, no Greater Wrath, Estonia and Livonia are back with Riga which was the second biggest town in Sweden then and later on they can use Viborg as a good defense against Russia and build up in the meantime.
So, say the King dies at Poltava, maybe with that musketball wound to the foot getting infected or something. They still had Stenbock and other capable commanders and Gortz could become important if the Duke of Holstein-Gottorp is the King.
By the way, Karl marrying an Austrian princess is HIGHLY unlikely, IMO at least :)
 
Saxony gets back the Polish crown, that is enough for Augustus.

A peace with Russia before Viborg-Riga-Pernau-Reval are lost in 1710 would be easier than afterwards.

The Danish invasion of 1709 could have been better handled by the Danes, so that is not to be written off as easily, especially if a new army such as Stenbock's is sent to Livonia instead, to save the cities.

Charles dying at Poltava might get the Swedish army going the right way afterwards, and avoid the OTL surrender.

Charles dying before Poltava could perhaps avoid the battle altogether. Rehnschiöld decides to let the politicians to sort things out, and gets Piper to start peace negociations while the Swedes withdraw to Poland, to join Krassow and return to Sweden.
 
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