WI Charles VI died ten years later

Apparently, Emperor Charles VI's death in October 1740 was quite unexpected, and probably brought on by accidentally eating poisonous mushrooms. As we know, that death brought on the War of the Austrian Succession, which set the terms for European politics for the next several decades, in particular being responsible for bringing Prussia to prominence through Frederick the Great's seizure of Silesia.

So: what if Charles manages to hang on for ten more years?

A few thoughts:

1) the Austrian army was in a very bad state in 1740, having just finished a rather embarrassing and unsuccessful war against the Ottoman Empire the year before. A few more years of peace would have been very helpful.

2) Britain and Spain are already at war in October 1740, and the French are considering joining the Spanish. It seems to doubtful that this war would be more than desultory, but an independent, non-continental war of this sort might have interesting consequences.

3) The big territorial claim that had always obsessed Frederick William I was the Jülich-Berg inheritance. Prussia had had a claim to these territories since the original Jülich succession crisis of 1609, and the then current ruler, the Elector Palatine Karl III Philipp, had no sons. Most of the powers, and I believe the Imperial Diet, had agreed that Karl Philipp's heir in the Palatinate, Karl Theodor of Sulzbach, should also inherit Jülich and Berg, and this was to be cemented in 1742 by Karl Theodor's marriage to his cousin Elisabeth Auguste, Karl Philipp's granddaughter. But Frederick William strongly disagreed.

Karl Philipp died in December 1742 OTL, and likely would here as well. OTL, Frederick wasn't super interested, as he obviously had bigger things on his plate. But here, this seems like it would almost certainly merit some sort of Prussian response, right?

4) I know the shenanigans in Russia following the death of Empress Anna were tightly connected to the politics of what was going on in Western Europe. The Regent Anna Leopoldovna was pro-Austrian, and Grand Duchess Elizabeth's coup was supported by the French and Swedes on account of that. So presumably there's some effects here.

5) Charles Albert of Bavaria, OTL's Emperor Charles VII, died in 1745. His health might have been adversely affected by the troubles of his later years, but it seems unlikely he'd live to 1750. What then happens to his claim to the imperial throne when Charles VI does die? Does his son Maximilian Joseph put himself forward? OTL Max was not nearly so ambitious as his father.

6) Cardinal Fleury was still running French policy in 1740 OTL, but was losing influence to younger, more bellicose types like Marshal Belle-Isle. Fleury is surely dead by 1750 - who's running French at that point? Would they pursue a policy as ambitious as Belle-Isle did OTL?

7) Similarly, Walpole is going to be out of power and dead by 1750. Who's in charge, though? Carteret? The Pelhams? What kind of attitude will they take?

8) Philip V of Spain died in 1746. His successor, Ferdinand VI, his son by his first wife, was utterly uninterested in going to war with Austria in order to find Italian principalities for his half-brothers.

Do we get a general war in Europe at any point here, either as a result of the Anglo-Spanish War, the Jülich-Berg succession, or Charles's later death?
 
I think Friedrich II. wanted in any case to play with his fathers precious toys. So he will likly jumps at any chance to start a war.
 
I think Friedrich II. wanted in any case to play with his fathers precious toys. So he will likly jumps at any chance to start a war.

So in 1742 he goes to war to claim Jülich and Berg from the Elector Palatine. I'd think he'd pretty easily overrun them, but then what? The Elector Palatine is clearly outmatched militarily, and it doesn't seem obvious to me that anyone is going to care enough to immediately go to war with Frederick over it. More likely, the Elector takes the matter to one or more of the various Imperial institutions - to the Reichstag, the Reichskammergericht, or the Reichshofrat. He'd clearly win the case...eventually.

But mightn't Frederick simply buy him out before it comes to that? Karl IV Theodor was not a particularly principled guy - I'd think he'd be pretty okay with getting ready cash in exchange for a couple of provinces that are not particularly close to Mannheim. Of course, more powerful people have more distant claims to Jülich and Berg - it looks to me like the Emperor himself, the Elector of Saxony, and the Elector of Bavaria all have some potential claim, so the Elector Palatine's withdrawal might not be sufficient to make the question moot.

At any rate, it's kind of hard to see Jülich-Berg turning into a major war. What other pretexts might arise before 1750?
 
Would he? The residence of a number of Elector Palatine's had been in Düsseldorf (in Berg). The OTL division of Julich-Cleves-Berg had been a compromise between rival claimants divided on a religious basis.
 
I wonder, if a war starts between Britain and France, would Friedrich probably join France and invade Hannover?
 
Would he? The residence of a number of Elector Palatine's had been in Düsseldorf (in Berg). The OTL division of Julich-Cleves-Berg had been a compromise between rival claimants divided on a religious basis.

The Elector Palatine had moved back to Mannheim in the Palatinate proper in 1716, so Düsseldorf had been out. and Karl Theodor certainly did not choose to live there OTL - he stayed in Mannheim, and actually seems to have even preferred it to Munich after 1777 - it took him quite a while to move over to Munich after he inherited Bavaria, and he actually returned to Mannheim for a decent spell in 1788 and threatened to stay there.

He was, notably, a leader who was generally very amenable to trades meant to increase his own personal comfort, rather than holding on to all his hereditary possessions. So if you have a situation where Frederick has invaded and occupied Jülich and Berg anyway, and Karl Theodor's only other option is to wait out the extremely slow workings of the Imperial courts, he might take the cash now.

And, yeah, Frederick certainly might join the French in an Anglo-French war over colonial matters. The problem is that this would clearly be breaking the peace of the Empire in a way that could very well backfire on France. It's one thing to resort to military force as part of a succession dispute where you have a plausible case. It's quite another to invade another imperial state as the paid auxiliary of a foreign power without any real casus belli of your own.
 
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