WI: Charles the Bald dies before Lothair I

In a previous thread about finding a way to have Flanders end up in East Francia, someone proposed the idea that Charles the Bald dies early one(early I think 850s or so) and possible his 3 sons would inherit pieces of the realm, the question is, how would the realm be divided and could this end up with a long term division of West Francia(so maybe with an Aquitanian kingdom, a Neustrian one and possibly even a Burgundian one?) or would the territory eventually re-consolidate back(especially taking the view that the Carolingians would sooner or later disappear from the scene).

As a bonus point, starting with this POD, how could East Francia end up with just Flanders or a bit more but not be in such a dominant position? Basically how do you make the other kingdoms less prone to decentralization and weak rulership? Especially in case you have multiple West Frankish kingdoms in the long term while just one large East Francia.
 
It's really debatable WFrancia would be divided between his sons if he dies this early. They are far too young to really assert this, and its more likely that Lothair and possibly Louis would have the upper hand on the succession.
You could argue that Charles the Child was already elected King of Aquitaine, but it was a measure taken by his father to counter Peppin II and Louis the younger's claims. ITTL, I think Aquitaine would go to either of them, Louis certainly favouring his son, Lothar possibly favouring Peppin. Arguably, Peppin's position was not that strong in Aquitaine at this point, so I'd tend to think Louis might get the kingship while Lothar would be able to pull more strings in WFrancia proper.

The situation in the northern part of Charles' kingdom is more blur : I'd rather expect either a Lotharingian regency in the name of Charles the Child, either one of Lothair's sons getting it.
Maybe with some rearrangements when it comes to bordering regions although more focused in Burgundy and Champagne than Flanders IMO, essentially limiting WFRancia to Carolingian Neustria.

Of course, the quick death of Lothar (unless delayed ITTL?) is going to make the region a fantastic mess : the rise of potentes as autonomous rulers is going to be quickened ITTL. We might end with a Lotharingia which goes more westwards, and with a Provence that includes Swabia if the aforementioned rearrangement is made

As for an Eastern Francia managing to get Flanders, given the butterflies of this PoD, it's hard enough telling if they would really get an hold on Lotharingia; or if Louis manages to pull a Charles III and briefly reconstitute Carolingia (while still having to deal with sub-kings) before reverting to separation of kingdoms.
 
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It's really debatable WFrancia would be divided between his sons if he dies this early. They are far too young to really assert this, and its more likely that Lothair and possibly Louis would have the upper hand on the succession.
Yeah they are indeed too young.


Of course, the quick death of Lothar (unless delayed ITTL?) is going to make the region a fantastic mess : the rise of potentes as autonomous rulers is going to be quickened ITTL. We might end with a Lotharingia which goes more westwards, and with a Provence that includes Swabia if the aforementioned rearrangement is made
Swabia? Isn't it part of the East Frankish kingdom? I was thinking that the deaths of the 2 other brother(especially Lothair) would be similar to IOTL, the POD is quite late anyway.

What are "potentes"?

As for an Eastern Francia managing to get Flanders, given the butterflies of this PoD, it's hard enough telling if they would really get an hold on Lotharingia; or if Louis manages to pull a Charles III and briefly reconstitute Carolingia (while still having to deal with sub-kings) before reverting to separation of kingdoms.
If the 2 brothers die and have their kingdom balkanized, I imagine Louis the German would be in a position to reasserts himself like his son Charles the Fat did ITTL, but if the kingdoms reseparate, in which fashion would that be? Something like IOTL or with a more fractured West Francia and even East Francia? I think the Aquitanian kingdom is the most likely to appear while the rest of the West Frankis territory would be more or less intact, is there any chance that West Francia can be partitioned further? Seems unlikely to me considering Burgundy/Arles despite being divided in 2 ended up being re-consolidated.[/QUOTE]
 
Swabia? Isn't it part of the East Frankish kingdom?
My mistake : altough Alemania was partly divided with Middle Francia, I meant to say up to Swabia. (Tne sentence is an artifact of "includes Alsace")

I was thinking that the deaths of the 2 other brother(especially Lothair) would be similar to IOTL, the POD is quite late anyway.
Then it's soon going to be between Louis the German and Louis the Younger against Louis the Younger (of Italy) and Lothar II.

What are "potentes"?
Litterally, "the powerful" : the aristocracy based on political power, own wealth and their relationship to the royal palace. IOTL, even with Quiercy edit, potentes were more or less regulated trough their relationship with the kings. If Western Francia ends up like this, many potentes of Aquitaine and France are going to act independently more easily and more early than IOTL.

If the 2 brothers die and have their kingdom balkanized, I imagine Louis the German would be in a position to reasserts himself like his son Charles the Fat did ITTL, but if the kingdoms reseparate, in which fashion would that be?
Probably following a more or less quadriparte division IMO : Francia, Germania, Aquitania, Italia. As for the borders...It really depends of the geopolitical balance from one hand, and outer pressures from another.

is there any chance that West Francia can be partitioned further?
I don't think so : it formed a roughly coherent ensemble since centuries at this point (at least between Loire and Meuse) and further royal partitions would be relatively artificial : not that Charles' Francia was significantly established (at this point, the inhabitants of WFrancia were labelled "Carlesenses", the people of Charles), but it was more recognizable than what happened in Lotharingia.

Seems unlikely to me considering Burgundy/Arles despite being divided in 2 ended up being re-consolidated.
The kingdom of Burgundy/Provence is essentially a contingential creation due to Boson. ITTL, it's likely butterflied away as such. That being said, you could end up with an alternatie kingdom of Burgundy, centered on the northern Rhone basin.
 
Then it's soon going to be between Louis the German and Louis the Younger against Louis the Younger (of Italy) and Lothar II.
Wouldn't Louis the German win in this scenario? Things seem really tipped in favour of him.

Litterally, "the powerful" : the aristocracy based on political power, own wealth and their relationship to the royal palace. IOTL, even with Quiercy edit, potentes were more or less regulated trough their relationship with the kings. If Western Francia ends up like this, many potentes of Aquitaine and France are going to act independently more easily and more early than IOTL.
Is the term referring to a specific aristocracy in West Francia or the whole of Carolongia Europe?

Probably following a more or less quadriparte division IMO : Francia, Germania, Aquitania, Italia. As for the borders...It really depends of the geopolitical balance from one hand, and outer pressures from another.
Wouldn't there be also a Provence/Burgundy?

I don't think so : it formed a roughly coherent ensemble since centuries at this point (at least between Loire and Meuse) and further royal partitions would be relatively artificial : not that Charles' Francia was significantly established (at this point, the inhabitants of WFrancia were labelled "Carlesenses", the people of Charles), but it was more recognizable than what happened in Lotharingia.
So Aquitaine is the only realistic breakaway region? Well what remains is basically the Seine valley + half of the Loire.

The kingdom of Burgundy/Provence is essentially a contingential creation due to Boson. ITTL, it's likely butterflied away as such. That being said, you could end up with an alternatie kingdom of Burgundy, centered on the northern Rhone basin.
By butterflied does it mean it(the coastal area) would end up under Italy?


BTW, do you have any wild guess at what the macro-political future of this arrangement would be(specifically referring to France and Italy)?
 
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Wouldn't Louis the German win in this scenario? Things seem really tipped in favour of him.
It's not really obvious at this point : without a royal presence to distribute honores in the west, the WFrancian potentes will likely turn to the next best thing, aka one of Lothar's sons. I agree that they would be unreliable, especially if Louis of Bavaria or his son (for clarity's sake, let's call him Louis of Aquitaine) make promises, but it would make WFrancia more of a battlefield than an asset for anyone in this case, because any kingship depended heavily on a built network with local potentes, something that is yet to build for either side.

In case of a conflict you'd probably end up with a generational alliance between Lothar's son and Peppin II (less because he would give them a huge boon than it would weaken Louis of Aquitaine's position), and maybe later Carloman of Bavaria who was at odds with his father IOTL. In fine, Aquitaine and WFrancia would be at the hands of potentes before anything else.
Especially if Lothar managed to take back territories up to the Silva Carbonaria (as he seems to have tried, unsuccessfully, to claim during the split), Lothar's sons would be in a relatively good position.

Eventually, I think that any conflict would be quick, at least in a first tie, and ending up with a status quo acknowledging Louis as king of Aquitaine and Lothar II influence on WFrancia, not only because of what I mentioned but because of the "Great Raids" of the mid-850's in Francia by Vikings which really represented IOTL a shock and would imply at the very least a truce between Carolingians.

Is the term referring to a specific aristocracy in West Francia or the whole of Carolongia Europe?
No, it's a broad, generic name as majores. Majores arguably could be better fit, but I took the havit of using potentes because of Bruno Dumézil and now it stuck.

Wouldn't there be also a Provence/Burgundy?
Not necessarily : as said, it existed from the late IXth essentially as an opportunistic creation by Boso of a non-descript kingdom from his rule as duke of Provence, the general idea being using this non-descript kingship to get Italy. Charles essentially got Provence because there wasn't much to give him.
Depending on the number of sons of not only whoever reunites the Empire but as well the sons of whoever was deprived of thrones (ITTL, maybe the sons of Charles the Bald) that would have a claim to kingship.

The quadriparte ensemble I described is arguably arbitrary but not without cause : it was basically the regions that asked the more for a specific king. Everything in between is dispensable enventually.

So Aquitaine is the only realistic breakaway region? Well what remains is basically the Seine valley + half of the Loire.
Borders aren't really clearly defined at this point : Aquitaine was roughly south of Loire, but its delimitations essentially depended from honores and beneficiarii of the aristocracy on which was tied such and such king.
If I had to give a guesstimate, which I really warn is not a given in any sense, it would be keeping the rough limits of 845, meaning most of Aquitaine including Gothia but without Poitou, Saintonge and Angoumois, but arguably (giving several Gothic potentes had holdings in Burgundy) maybe part of Burgundy as well.
Again, delimitations depend heavily from who supported who, and who promised what among their supporters (local or neighbouring)

By butterflied does it mean it(the coastal area) would end up under Italy?
Or Aquitaine. Or Western Francia. See above point.

BTW, do you have any wild guess at what the macro-political future of this arrangement would be(specifically referring to France and Italy)?
If I had to guess I'd say.
Death of Charles the Bald
- Aquitaine goes to Louis the Young (Louis of Aquitaine)
- WFrancia goes to a son of Lothar, possibly Lothar II, while Lothar takes for himself the region up, not including, Silva Carbonaria.

Death of Lothar
- Louis II inherits Italy and Provence
- Lothar II keeps WFrancia and maybe recovers the part taken by his father (if not more)
- Charles takes whatever remains in Burgundy.
 
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